The Hive Mind

A New Social Media Angle?

I like this story from NPR:

So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent

Basically, a test was run on everyday Americans to see if they could predict world events as well as your average CIA specialist.  Surprisingly, a small elite, comprising 1% of all those tested, was 30% more accurate.

The immediate reaction most people will have to this apparent comeuppance is to think, "Yeah, we don't need eggheads in Langley throwing darts at the wall to decide what's going to happen in Chad.  But is predicting the future what the CIA does?  Or is it knowing who to contact, where, and what to say or not say?

A good case could be made for both understanding the world and dialing back our 'experts'.  Reading through 'comments' in the story linked to above gives one a taste for both sides.

What I find intriguing, though, is that ordinary people, with a little googling, find they're actually quite good at knowing where fate is headed.  For example, will Scotland vote to leave Great Britain?

What if a website offered anyone who wanted it a chance to predict, opine and advise?  Participants would also look at others' opinions and advice and rate them.  Rankings within various subject areas would advance those who showed a natural talent.

For example, if you were asked to predict which TV shows were likely to endure.  Or which rookie ballplayer was bound for stardom.  Or how many tickets would be sold for a given play, you would eventually find a subject that you did well in.  Or if you were giving advice to people, you might find that you excelled in a certain specialty like relationships or pet problems.

Ideally, the website would pay their 'experts'.  The further you advanced, the more you'd be paid.

This would have the effect of bringing together the best minds on a given subject and focusing them on problem-solving.  We'd be one step closer to the hive mind.

Update: This site comes fairly close.