#252: A Taiwanese Model
..................
The BBC website posted an article recently describing a new process the Taiwanese government uses to get to consensus on issues:
Process:
1. Crowdsource objective facts from stakeholder factions about a specific issue
2. Communicate via dedicated social media: statements aimed at resolving the issue are drafted within each faction, after pro- and con- suggestions are offered
3. A rough consensus is reached between factions, followed by hammering out detailed recommendations
Tweaks to a normal discussion:
* no 'reply' button (so no person-to-person vitriol)
* most messages within factions regarding their own drafts are not shared with other factions
* instead, messages that find support across different groups, as well as within them, are highlighted for all to see
* thus, rather than fostering negativity, the process is gamified in a way that tilts toward consensus
First, is adopting this system possible here in the US? And second, could there be problems with the process?
Could it be adapted for our government?
1. What if a new president held monthly televised town halls on different topics. If a subject were announced well in advance, stakeholders could develop draft resolutions, and reach a rough consensus, which the president could then present to the town hall audience as he/she answered questions. Or, if the president didn't agree with the consensus, it could be sent back for further tweaking. The initial discussion and negotiating would take place on a dedicated social media platform that tilted the process towards consensus as above.
2. Alternately, the process could be decentralized, and instead handled through the House of Representatives, with congress members playing the president's role, and the audience being online. I've described something like this here. Representatives would then decide whether to follow the will of the voters, and the president would weigh in only to initiate discussion, and, once legislation passes both the House and Senate, to either sign or veto the 'consensus' produced.
Any problems?
* The Taiwanese example cited was a conflict between Uber drivers, their customers, and traditional taxi drivers. This is a clear cut case with defined stakeholders. Are most issues so easily squared off? Probably not, but there's no harm in trying to resolve conflicts of interest.
* Do fundamental conflicts fester, after being papered over? Likely no more so than in any other method used, though again, only experience will speak to this.
* Are innovative ideas, that might otherwise emerge, drowned out by the urge to bridge the gap between factions? It wouldn't seem so at first glance, since the initial discussion is within factions, where innovation would have room to appear. But, again, we won't know till we experiment, though there may be a problem of defining factions at the beginning of the process that leaves some interested parties outside looking in.
Our next president would do well to increase transparency and consensus building, and the above would seem a good place to start.
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
Republican Lockstep And The Myth Of Pop Music
#251: The Herd
..................
Aside from politics, my 'most read' blog post has been What Corrupted Pop Music? In it I count down the ten reasons contemporary popular music has declined in quality.
Of course I find some artists worth it. In watching 30 minutes or so of DVRed late night comedy with my dinner most nights, I've recently enjoyed Taylor Swift on SNL, The Roots on Jimmy Fallon, Jon Batiste & Stay Human on Colbert, and (can't remember name) on Seth Meyers. After all, there's such enormous variety that eventually you'll find something.
Routinely, though, I quickly fast forward through yet another failure.
What inspired this post, however, is the similarity between the circumscribed pop music industry, and the allegiance required of Republican politicians. Will there ever come a time when individualism is ascendant ("From now on, I'm not pretending...."), and toadying is laughed at?
I'd like to think so. The more likely outcome, though, barring greater music exposure in schools, and greater civic participation in politics, is for low-information listeners / voters to continue to fall under the sway of artifice. The fall-back of finger jabbing that accompanies borderline violent music isn't, after all, that different from the attention-getting that comes from sensationalizing the border 'crisis' **; in both cases there's aggression or distortion to serve personal ends. And the syrupy formula of unthinking, pretty faces on TV endorsing a party line isn't that different from formulaic music produced by industry professionals, then presented as the latest 'popular' fare by interchangeable celebrity frontmen and -women.
Most likely, all we can hope for is the gradual decline of schlock, whether it's political or musical. So, in the case of politics, we can likely expect a vote not to remove an impeached president, followed by negative repercussions for that president's party in the next election. In music, this might involve the further decentralization of the industry, and a groundswell of voices noting that the emperor has no clothes.
Or, in both cases, there just might be a profound way forward.
Music: as a first step, a 'union' of sorts, that constitutes artists who write their own material, for starters. Not a member? Why not? Second step: union members voting, anonymously, on which artists are making their favorite music.
Politics: a compromise within the Republican party, between die-hard apologists, who'll support their president no matter how absurd the arguments, and the large number of senators with private concerns about impeachable behavior. Instead of senate Republicans confronting the president, as with Nixon in the Watergate Era, they could simply conduct an anonymous vote ***. This would avoid tying any individual senator to the inevitable tornado of anger from the Republican base. If done prior to the House's expected impeachment vote, like Nixon, Trump wouldn't be formally impeached. Would he see the writing on the wall, assuming the necessary votes were cast, and get out with minimal dignity? Maybe not, but from Senate Majority Leader McConnell's perspective, an anonymous vote is probably the least bad option.
** Border crisis? Most undocumented migrants come through border crossings, legally, on limited visas. They overstay, and find work. So, either employers, like hotels and golf courses, use a solid e-verify system to hire only American citizens, or we continue as we are. Building a militarized border wall will do relatively little besides ruin natural areas.
*** Anonymous vote? Here's how it might work: Each Republican senator would receive three slips of paper (labelled "removal", "present", and "no! removal") that looked identical when folded. In plain sight, in front of rolling cameras, each senator would, one by one, walk up to two spinning cages (like those used for lottery drawings). The first would be for the senator's vote, the second for the two discards. Once voting was over, the slips would be counted, with the world watching.
..................
Aside from politics, my 'most read' blog post has been What Corrupted Pop Music? In it I count down the ten reasons contemporary popular music has declined in quality.
Of course I find some artists worth it. In watching 30 minutes or so of DVRed late night comedy with my dinner most nights, I've recently enjoyed Taylor Swift on SNL, The Roots on Jimmy Fallon, Jon Batiste & Stay Human on Colbert, and (can't remember name) on Seth Meyers. After all, there's such enormous variety that eventually you'll find something.
Routinely, though, I quickly fast forward through yet another failure.
What inspired this post, however, is the similarity between the circumscribed pop music industry, and the allegiance required of Republican politicians. Will there ever come a time when individualism is ascendant ("From now on, I'm not pretending...."), and toadying is laughed at?
I'd like to think so. The more likely outcome, though, barring greater music exposure in schools, and greater civic participation in politics, is for low-information listeners / voters to continue to fall under the sway of artifice. The fall-back of finger jabbing that accompanies borderline violent music isn't, after all, that different from the attention-getting that comes from sensationalizing the border 'crisis' **; in both cases there's aggression or distortion to serve personal ends. And the syrupy formula of unthinking, pretty faces on TV endorsing a party line isn't that different from formulaic music produced by industry professionals, then presented as the latest 'popular' fare by interchangeable celebrity frontmen and -women.
Most likely, all we can hope for is the gradual decline of schlock, whether it's political or musical. So, in the case of politics, we can likely expect a vote not to remove an impeached president, followed by negative repercussions for that president's party in the next election. In music, this might involve the further decentralization of the industry, and a groundswell of voices noting that the emperor has no clothes.
Or, in both cases, there just might be a profound way forward.
Music: as a first step, a 'union' of sorts, that constitutes artists who write their own material, for starters. Not a member? Why not? Second step: union members voting, anonymously, on which artists are making their favorite music.
Politics: a compromise within the Republican party, between die-hard apologists, who'll support their president no matter how absurd the arguments, and the large number of senators with private concerns about impeachable behavior. Instead of senate Republicans confronting the president, as with Nixon in the Watergate Era, they could simply conduct an anonymous vote ***. This would avoid tying any individual senator to the inevitable tornado of anger from the Republican base. If done prior to the House's expected impeachment vote, like Nixon, Trump wouldn't be formally impeached. Would he see the writing on the wall, assuming the necessary votes were cast, and get out with minimal dignity? Maybe not, but from Senate Majority Leader McConnell's perspective, an anonymous vote is probably the least bad option.
** Border crisis? Most undocumented migrants come through border crossings, legally, on limited visas. They overstay, and find work. So, either employers, like hotels and golf courses, use a solid e-verify system to hire only American citizens, or we continue as we are. Building a militarized border wall will do relatively little besides ruin natural areas.
*** Anonymous vote? Here's how it might work: Each Republican senator would receive three slips of paper (labelled "removal", "present", and "no! removal") that looked identical when folded. In plain sight, in front of rolling cameras, each senator would, one by one, walk up to two spinning cages (like those used for lottery drawings). The first would be for the senator's vote, the second for the two discards. Once voting was over, the slips would be counted, with the world watching.
Sunday, October 20, 2019
Tribute: Lyricist Robert Hunter
#250: Leonardo Words
...................
As I recently wrote on Twitter, the difference between two random people working on a project, and two collaborators meant for each other, is 9+9, as opposed to 9x9. With the passing of lyricist Robert Hunter, who wrote the words to a good many Grateful Dead songs, we are reminded of that difference (81 - 18) by the peak synergy that flowed from Hunter's lyrics and Jerry Garcia's music during the late '60s and '70s.
Below, I'll quote what I consider to be Hunter's best, leaving it to the reader to actually listen to the marvel that is Garcia et al.'s adaptive revelation (Note: I've read that in some instances--like our #5--the music came first). I'll indicate a date on which the first live performance occurred, and also which of the song's verses I'm quoting. My commentary then appears in green.
In chronological order:
#1 "Dark Star", first performed Dec 13th, '67
(chorus)
Shall we go,
you and I
while we can?
Through
the transitive nightfall
of diamonds
[I imagine two lovers thinking this as they pledge themselves.]
#2 "China Cat Sunflower", first performed Jan 17, '68
(2nd verse)
Krazy Kat peeking through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire
like a diamond-eyed Jack
A leaf of all colors plays
a golden string fiddle
to a double-e waterfall over my back
["...of all..." later becomes "...waterfall...". Here we have, what? Flowing hair?]
#3 "St. Stephen", May 24th, '68
(6th verse)
Did he doubt or did he try?
Answers aplenty in the bye and bye
Talk about your plenty, talk about your ills
One man gathers what another man spills
[Quiz: Famously, at one concert, the last line here coincided with what?]
#4 "Black Peter", Dec 4th, '69
(2nd verse)
Just then the wind
came squalling through the door
but who can the weather command?
[Would you close the door?]
#5 "Uncle John's Band", Dec 4th, '69
(first verse)
Well the first days are the hardest days
don't you worry anymore
When life looks like Easy Street
there is danger at your door
Think this through with me
Let me know your mind
Whoa-oh, what I want to know,
is are you kind?
[A fair approximation of a then nascent '60s philosophy.]
#6 "Sugar Magnolia/Sunshine Daydream", June 7th, 1970
(near end)
Light out singing
I'll walk you in the morning sunshine
[Singing at night about tomorrow morning.]
[Note: music by Bob Weir]
#7 "Ripple", August 18th, 1970
(chorus)
Ripple in still water
when there is no pebble tossed
nor wind to blow
[Enigmatic, but once solved, the riddle be deep...if God is there.]
#8 "Box of Rain", October 9th, 1972
(penultimate verse)
Just a box of rain
wind and water
believe it if you need it
if you don't just pass it on
[That last line, in the final verse, becomes "or leave it if you dare"]
[Note: music by Phil Lesh.]
#9 "Bertha", Feb 18th, '71
(second verse)
Dressed myself in green
I went down to the sea
Try to see what's going down
Try to read between the lines
Had a feeling I was falling, falling, falling
Turned around to see
Heard a voice a-calling, calling, calling
You was coming after me
Back to me
["went down", "going down", "falling", rather than, ...well, Bertha]
#10 "Wharf Rat", Feb. 18th, 1971
(second verse)
My name is August West
and I love my Pearly Baker best
more than my wine
[even in our blind despair, the way forward beckons]
[Note: the contrast of triumphal music, with empathy for 'the least among us', is Garcia genius]
#11 "Bird Song", Feb. 18th, 1971
(first verse)
All I know is something like a bird
within her sang
All I know, she sang a little while
and then flew on
(beginning, second verse)
If you hear that same sweet song again
will you know why?
[The key to a wise choice: the happiness of knowing why]
#12 "Brown-eyed Women", August 23rd, 1971
(last verse)
Daddy made whiskey and he made it well
Cost two dollars and it burned like hell
I cut hick'ry just to fire the still
Drink down a bottle and you're ready to kill
[The hardscrabble life of a hundred years ago, axing timber and animals.]
#13 "Tennessee Jed", October 19th, 1971
(last verse)
I woke up a-feeling mean
Went down to play the slot machine
The wheels turned 'round and the letters read:
Better head back to Tennessee, Jed
[An old-timey, extraordinary vision]
#14 "Jack Straw", October 19th, 1971
(fifth verse)
We used to play for silver
Now we play for life
One's for sport and one's for blood
At the point of a knife
Now the die is shaken
Now the die must fall
There ain't a winner in this game
Who don't go home with all
Not with all....
[Alternating voices sing, first of immorality, then condemnation, then our quote]
[Note: music by Bob Weir.]
#15 "Ramble On Rose", October 19th, 1971
(second half, first verse)
Just like New York City
Just like Jericho
Pace the halls and climb the walls
Get out when they blow
[Hard to beat Garcia's exciting music here; excellent poetic path, as well.]
#16 "Mississippi Half-step Uptown Toodleloo", July 16th, '72
(chorus)
Halfstep
Mississippi Uptown Toodleloo
Hello baby I'm gone, goodbye
Half a cup of rock and rye
Farewell to you old Southern sky
I'm on my way--on my way
[Upriver, where the paddle wheeler stopped.]
#17 "Eyes Of The World", February 9th, 1973
(first verse)
Right outside this lazy summer home
you don't have time to call
your soul a critic, no
[The band's music, fully mature.]
#18 "U.S. Blues", Feb. 22nd, 1974
(second verse)
I'm Uncle Sam / that's who I am
Been hiding out / in a rock-and-roll band
Shake the hand that shook the hand
Of P.T. Barnum / and Charlie Chan
[Big-hearted, inclusive.]
#19 "Scarlet Begonias", March 23rd, 1974
(fourth verse)
Once in a while
you get shown the light
in the strangest of places
if you look at it right
[Once, that is, like at a GD concert, when you're playing, like everyone else, in the "Heart of Gold Band"]
#20 "Fire On The Mountain", March 18th, 1977
(second verse)
If mercy's in business I wish it for you
More than just ashes when your dreams come true
[Warning: throw away your matches.]
[Note: music by Mickey Hart.]
#21 "Althea", August 4th, 1979
(first verse)
I told Althea I was feeling lost
Lacking in some direction
Althea told me upon scrutiny
my back might need protection
[Early precursor of the 'I've got your back' concept, except back-to-back?]
#22 "Alabama Getaway", November 4th, 1979
(2nd verse)
Reason the poor girls love him
Promise them everything
Why they all believe him?
He wears a big diamond ring
[Succinct.]
#23 "Standing On The Moon", February 5th, 1989
(last verse)
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I'd rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up at heaven
At this crescent in the sky
In the sky
[High flying spaceman's regret.]
Encore, #24 "He's Gone", April 17, 1972
(first verse)
Rat in a drain ditch
Caught on a limb
You know better but
I know him
[The alternative meaning that is simply wrong (first line). Also, 3rd and 4th lines nail the wrong-headed ugliness of celebrity.]
Second Encore, #25 "Here Comes Sunshine", Feb. 9th, 1973
(Second part, second verse)
Good to know
you got shoes to wear
when you find the floor
Why hold out for more?
[Once one wakes up, why keep on sleeping?]
Third Encore, #26 "Cosmic Charlie", October 19th, 1968
(most of the way through)
Calliope wail like a seaside zoo
The very last lately inquired about you
It's really very one or two
The first you wanted, the last I knew
[Delicious second meaning: "the last I knew".]
And probably Hunter's most famous words:
Lately it occurs to me
What a long strange trip it's been
[Dry humor that suddenly turns otherwise on closer scrutiny.]
...................
As I recently wrote on Twitter, the difference between two random people working on a project, and two collaborators meant for each other, is 9+9, as opposed to 9x9. With the passing of lyricist Robert Hunter, who wrote the words to a good many Grateful Dead songs, we are reminded of that difference (81 - 18) by the peak synergy that flowed from Hunter's lyrics and Jerry Garcia's music during the late '60s and '70s.
Below, I'll quote what I consider to be Hunter's best, leaving it to the reader to actually listen to the marvel that is Garcia et al.'s adaptive revelation (Note: I've read that in some instances--like our #5--the music came first). I'll indicate a date on which the first live performance occurred, and also which of the song's verses I'm quoting. My commentary then appears in green.
In chronological order:
#1 "Dark Star", first performed Dec 13th, '67
(chorus)
Shall we go,
you and I
while we can?
Through
the transitive nightfall
of diamonds
[I imagine two lovers thinking this as they pledge themselves.]
#2 "China Cat Sunflower", first performed Jan 17, '68
(2nd verse)
Krazy Kat peeking through a lace bandana
like a one-eyed Cheshire
like a diamond-eyed Jack
A leaf of all colors plays
a golden string fiddle
to a double-e waterfall over my back
["...of all..." later becomes "...waterfall...". Here we have, what? Flowing hair?]
#3 "St. Stephen", May 24th, '68
(6th verse)
Did he doubt or did he try?
Answers aplenty in the bye and bye
Talk about your plenty, talk about your ills
One man gathers what another man spills
[Quiz: Famously, at one concert, the last line here coincided with what?]
#4 "Black Peter", Dec 4th, '69
(2nd verse)
Just then the wind
came squalling through the door
but who can the weather command?
[Would you close the door?]
#5 "Uncle John's Band", Dec 4th, '69
(first verse)
Well the first days are the hardest days
don't you worry anymore
When life looks like Easy Street
there is danger at your door
Think this through with me
Let me know your mind
Whoa-oh, what I want to know,
is are you kind?
[A fair approximation of a then nascent '60s philosophy.]
#6 "Sugar Magnolia/Sunshine Daydream", June 7th, 1970
(near end)
Light out singing
I'll walk you in the morning sunshine
[Singing at night about tomorrow morning.]
[Note: music by Bob Weir]
#7 "Ripple", August 18th, 1970
(chorus)
Ripple in still water
when there is no pebble tossed
nor wind to blow
[Enigmatic, but once solved, the riddle be deep...if God is there.]
#8 "Box of Rain", October 9th, 1972
(penultimate verse)
Just a box of rain
wind and water
believe it if you need it
if you don't just pass it on
[That last line, in the final verse, becomes "or leave it if you dare"]
[Note: music by Phil Lesh.]
#9 "Bertha", Feb 18th, '71
(second verse)
Dressed myself in green
I went down to the sea
Try to see what's going down
Try to read between the lines
Had a feeling I was falling, falling, falling
Turned around to see
Heard a voice a-calling, calling, calling
You was coming after me
Back to me
["went down", "going down", "falling", rather than, ...well, Bertha]
#10 "Wharf Rat", Feb. 18th, 1971
(second verse)
My name is August West
and I love my Pearly Baker best
more than my wine
[even in our blind despair, the way forward beckons]
[Note: the contrast of triumphal music, with empathy for 'the least among us', is Garcia genius]
#11 "Bird Song", Feb. 18th, 1971
(first verse)
All I know is something like a bird
within her sang
All I know, she sang a little while
and then flew on
(beginning, second verse)
If you hear that same sweet song again
will you know why?
[The key to a wise choice: the happiness of knowing why]
#12 "Brown-eyed Women", August 23rd, 1971
(last verse)
Daddy made whiskey and he made it well
Cost two dollars and it burned like hell
I cut hick'ry just to fire the still
Drink down a bottle and you're ready to kill
[The hardscrabble life of a hundred years ago, axing timber and animals.]
#13 "Tennessee Jed", October 19th, 1971
(last verse)
I woke up a-feeling mean
Went down to play the slot machine
The wheels turned 'round and the letters read:
Better head back to Tennessee, Jed
[An old-timey, extraordinary vision]
#14 "Jack Straw", October 19th, 1971
(fifth verse)
We used to play for silver
Now we play for life
One's for sport and one's for blood
At the point of a knife
Now the die is shaken
Now the die must fall
There ain't a winner in this game
Who don't go home with all
Not with all....
[Alternating voices sing, first of immorality, then condemnation, then our quote]
[Note: music by Bob Weir.]
#15 "Ramble On Rose", October 19th, 1971
(second half, first verse)
Just like New York City
Just like Jericho
Pace the halls and climb the walls
Get out when they blow
[Hard to beat Garcia's exciting music here; excellent poetic path, as well.]
#16 "Mississippi Half-step Uptown Toodleloo", July 16th, '72
(chorus)
Halfstep
Mississippi Uptown Toodleloo
Hello baby I'm gone, goodbye
Half a cup of rock and rye
Farewell to you old Southern sky
I'm on my way--on my way
[Upriver, where the paddle wheeler stopped.]
#17 "Eyes Of The World", February 9th, 1973
(first verse)
Right outside this lazy summer home
you don't have time to call
your soul a critic, no
[The band's music, fully mature.]
#18 "U.S. Blues", Feb. 22nd, 1974
(second verse)
I'm Uncle Sam / that's who I am
Been hiding out / in a rock-and-roll band
Shake the hand that shook the hand
Of P.T. Barnum / and Charlie Chan
[Big-hearted, inclusive.]
#19 "Scarlet Begonias", March 23rd, 1974
(fourth verse)
Once in a while
you get shown the light
in the strangest of places
if you look at it right
[Once, that is, like at a GD concert, when you're playing, like everyone else, in the "Heart of Gold Band"]
#20 "Fire On The Mountain", March 18th, 1977
(second verse)
If mercy's in business I wish it for you
More than just ashes when your dreams come true
[Warning: throw away your matches.]
[Note: music by Mickey Hart.]
#21 "Althea", August 4th, 1979
(first verse)
I told Althea I was feeling lost
Lacking in some direction
Althea told me upon scrutiny
my back might need protection
[Early precursor of the 'I've got your back' concept, except back-to-back?]
#22 "Alabama Getaway", November 4th, 1979
(2nd verse)
Reason the poor girls love him
Promise them everything
Why they all believe him?
He wears a big diamond ring
[Succinct.]
#23 "Standing On The Moon", February 5th, 1989
(last verse)
Standing on the moon
Where talk is cheap and vision true
Standing on the moon
But I'd rather be with you
Somewhere in San Francisco
On a back porch in July
Just looking up at heaven
At this crescent in the sky
In the sky
[High flying spaceman's regret.]
Encore, #24 "He's Gone", April 17, 1972
(first verse)
Rat in a drain ditch
Caught on a limb
You know better but
I know him
[The alternative meaning that is simply wrong (first line). Also, 3rd and 4th lines nail the wrong-headed ugliness of celebrity.]
Second Encore, #25 "Here Comes Sunshine", Feb. 9th, 1973
(Second part, second verse)
Good to know
you got shoes to wear
when you find the floor
Why hold out for more?
[Once one wakes up, why keep on sleeping?]
Third Encore, #26 "Cosmic Charlie", October 19th, 1968
(most of the way through)
Calliope wail like a seaside zoo
The very last lately inquired about you
It's really very one or two
The first you wanted, the last I knew
[Delicious second meaning: "the last I knew".]
And probably Hunter's most famous words:
Lately it occurs to me
What a long strange trip it's been
[Dry humor that suddenly turns otherwise on closer scrutiny.]
Monday, October 14, 2019
More Sleep Hacks
#249: Light And Sleep
.........
Linda Geddes’ book, Why Office Workers Can’t Sleep (and Why That’s Bad), is excerpted on Lit Hub, which I read yesterday morning, after awakening at 5:20.
Geddes thinks falling sleep is affected by the light we experience after dark. Bright blue light tells our brain it isn’t night yet. Candlelight says the opposite. Her opinion is informed by the experiments she and her family conducted over several weeks, each week using different lighting in their home after dark.
Except, I’d say there’s another factor that’s even more important: exertion. No, I’m not saying 'exercise', because some people consider a half mile walk to be exercise. No, I’m talking about serious exertion, like pushing a mower up and down a hill for half an hour—twice a day. At least that’s my system. If I’ve exerted sufficiently, I’ll fall right to sleep, even after staring at my 17" computer screen for an hour or two before turning in.
And, by the way, it may be that getting enough sleep is the key to aging gracefully. Though, it should be said that old age conspires against that state of grace. There’s the usual decline in physical activity, meaning low exertion levels. Then, when one does exert, there's cramps-for-gramps, meaning drinking more water, thus getting up more often, and so interrupting sleep. The secret? Exertion. Even if getting up more than once a night, a weary body will fall right back to sleep.
.........
Linda Geddes’ book, Why Office Workers Can’t Sleep (and Why That’s Bad), is excerpted on Lit Hub, which I read yesterday morning, after awakening at 5:20.
Geddes thinks falling sleep is affected by the light we experience after dark. Bright blue light tells our brain it isn’t night yet. Candlelight says the opposite. Her opinion is informed by the experiments she and her family conducted over several weeks, each week using different lighting in their home after dark.
Except, I’d say there’s another factor that’s even more important: exertion. No, I’m not saying 'exercise', because some people consider a half mile walk to be exercise. No, I’m talking about serious exertion, like pushing a mower up and down a hill for half an hour—twice a day. At least that’s my system. If I’ve exerted sufficiently, I’ll fall right to sleep, even after staring at my 17" computer screen for an hour or two before turning in.
And, by the way, it may be that getting enough sleep is the key to aging gracefully. Though, it should be said that old age conspires against that state of grace. There’s the usual decline in physical activity, meaning low exertion levels. Then, when one does exert, there's cramps-for-gramps, meaning drinking more water, thus getting up more often, and so interrupting sleep. The secret? Exertion. Even if getting up more than once a night, a weary body will fall right back to sleep.
Sunday, October 13, 2019
Mind Reading AI -- Scary, At First
#248: Are 'Fake Thoughts' Possible?
...................
Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg recently discussed the future of devices that control screen action with mere thought.
My initial thought was: What if we get to the point where everyone automatically knows what we're thinking. Scary. Then I realized that screen control would involve what we think of as 'orders' (move there, do that), rather than the emotions that flood into our mind ("That guy's a loser.", "I'll pretend I didn't hear that.", "...of course I'm bluffing.")
Which raises the question of 'Fake Thoughts', and whether it would ever be desirable to rely on wearable gadgets that let us know what other people are thinking. Almost certainly not, since sight, sound and touch are 'in the moment', as opposed to a split-second delay that would require some getting used to, to say the least.
But for those unable to see or hear, sure. And, to read the minds of our pets. There's surely be a huge demand for that.
...................
Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg recently discussed the future of devices that control screen action with mere thought.
My initial thought was: What if we get to the point where everyone automatically knows what we're thinking. Scary. Then I realized that screen control would involve what we think of as 'orders' (move there, do that), rather than the emotions that flood into our mind ("That guy's a loser.", "I'll pretend I didn't hear that.", "...of course I'm bluffing.")
Which raises the question of 'Fake Thoughts', and whether it would ever be desirable to rely on wearable gadgets that let us know what other people are thinking. Almost certainly not, since sight, sound and touch are 'in the moment', as opposed to a split-second delay that would require some getting used to, to say the least.
But for those unable to see or hear, sure. And, to read the minds of our pets. There's surely be a huge demand for that.
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Is Warren Blue's Best Bet?
#247: If 2020's Wave Is Bigly Breaking
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My fascination with 2020's US presidential election seems all-encompassing at times; but aren't we all just waiting for a presidential exit? For example, the campaign to tackle Climate Change could use the US out front, yet that's all but impossible with our current failure at the top.
Who's most likely to get the Blue agenda passed? Let's take a look at a recent survey of our current president's state-by-state approval ratings, use these as a rough estimate of 2020 senate races, then add in coattails for either Elizabeth Warren (left-wing reformer) or Amy Klobuchar (farm state progressive). We'll then examine three scenarios: Optimistic (-2%--slowing economy, impeachment), Neutral (+3%) , and Pessimistic (+6%--good economic numbers, impeachment backlash), and see who does the best in each. Farm states will give Klobuchar minus 3%. Urban states will give Warren minus 3%. Meanwhile, farm states will cost Warren +3% and urban states will cost Klobuchar +3%. North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Colorado are neither rural, nor urban.
An '*' indicates an incumbent Republican senator. A '(Blue)' indicates a Democratic incumbent. 28 states had Trump underwater (Vermonters, for example, pegged his approval rating at 24% in October and 25% in November), while 21 states have him above. Ohio was about even.
Vermont - 24 - 25
Massachusetts - 25 - 26 (Blue)
Hawaii - 26 - 24
Maryland - 28 - 28
California - 28 - 30
Rhode Island - 31 - 32 (Blue)
Washington - 33 - 31
Oregon - 33 - 37 (Blue)
New York - 34 - 34
Illinois 34 - 35 (Blue)
Connecticut - 35 - 37
New Hampshire - 36 - 39 (Blue)
New Jersey - 36 - 37 (Blue)
Delaware - 37 - 39 (Blue)
Nevada - 38 - 40
New Mexico - 39 - 40 (Blue)
Minnesota - 40 - 41 (Blue)
Colorado - 40 - 41 (*)
Maine - 41 - 42 (*)
Virginia - 41 - 41 (Blue)
Pennsylvania - 42 - 44
Michigan - 44 - 45 (Blue)
Iowa - 44 - 45 (*)
Arizona 45 - 46 (*)
North Carolina - 45 - 46 (*)
Wisconsin - 45 - 49
Georgia - 46 - 45 (**)
Florida - 47 - 48
Ohio - 48 - 51 ................. even
Utah - 49 - 49
Kansas - 49 - 50 (*)
Texas - 49 - 49 (*)
S. Carolina - 50 - 51 (*)
Indiana - 51 - 52
Alaska - 52 - 52 (*)
Missouri - 52 - 53
Montana - 52 - 51 (*)
Nebraska - 53 - 51 (*)
Mississippi - 54 - 56 (*)
Louisiana - 54 -53 (*)
Tennessee - 55 - 56 (*)
Alabama - 57 - 59 (Blue)
Idaho - 59 - 62 (*)
S Dakota - 60 - 63 (*)
Arkansas - 62 - 63 (*)
Kentucky - 62 -59 (*)
Wyoming - 62 -67 (*)
Oklahoma - 63 - 63 (*)
North Dakota - 67 - 65
W Virginia - 68 - 67 (*)
Warren
Optimistic: net, plus 7 seats (TX, GA x 2, NC, AZ, IA, ME, CO, minus AL).
Neutral: Plus 2-3 (AZ, ME, CO, minus AL; NC a toss-up)
Pessimistic: No change - plus 1 (CO, minus AL; AZ a toss-up)
Klobuchar
Optimistic: plus 12 (NE, LA, MT, AK, SC, KS, GA x 2, NC, AZ, IA, ME, CO, minus AL
Neutral: plus 3-4 (GA x 2, NC, IA, ME, CO, minus AL, MI; NC a toss-up)
Pessimistic: plus 1 (ME, IA, CO minus AL, MI)
This is, of course, a very rough approximation. There would be other factors like incumbency, and candidate competence, and who's to say that ±3 is appropriate. But, it does give one a feel for what a farm state candidate might accomplish in electing Blue senators, compared to an urban state nominee with better turn-out among city folk.
A super-optimistic scenario makes the contrast stark: if a -6 modifier is used (instead of only -2 for optimistic), the result for Klobuchar is an astonishing swing: +15, giving Blue 62 senators! Meanwhile, Warren's result would be a more modest +9, and 56.
Is Trump's floor at 35% - 40% nationwide, or could it be 30-35? If 30%, a -6, scenario could be stretched to -8 or beyond, which would allow Klobuchar to rescue the Alabama seat as well, and Warren to wrangle SC.
Update 10/11: one month later and the numbers have moved slightly Red-wards (if you click the link at the top, you'll see that many states are one digit higher; though some, like Wisconsin, moved from 45 to 49; I've added these numbers, above). Would these changes alter our admittedly very rough projections? Actually, they increase Klobuchar's haul to 59 in an optimistic wave, while leaving Warren at 54. In our neutral setting, the numbers see the possibility of a new vice president having the tie-breaking vote in both cases, and the possibility of a Red Senate for Warren (with Michigan the culprit). Our super-optimistic scenario, meanwhile, nets Klobuchar MI, MS, TN, with AL and KY at 50% likelihood, for around 63-64.
Fun: If we assign the major candidates to their home state numbers, we have a fairly accurate list of how 'liberal' each candidate is. Bernie (Vermont, at 25--is the most liberal state here), then Warren (Massachusetts, at 26), Harris (California, at 30), Yang (New York, at 34), Booker (New Jersey, at 37), Biden (Delaware, at 39), Klobuchar (Minnesota, at 41), and Buttigieg (Indiana, at 52).
The reason I mention these numbers is to underline how easy it is for supporters of the left-leaning candidates to project their own assurance: "Bernie'll knock their socks off out in the farm states!" when they don't live surrounded by reddish-purple farmers. Whether you like it or not, farm states like Iowa and Wisconsin have disproportionate weight in the Electoral College (and Senate). Either you deal with this reality, or you live with the consequences of your over-confidence.
...................
My fascination with 2020's US presidential election seems all-encompassing at times; but aren't we all just waiting for a presidential exit? For example, the campaign to tackle Climate Change could use the US out front, yet that's all but impossible with our current failure at the top.
Who's most likely to get the Blue agenda passed? Let's take a look at a recent survey of our current president's state-by-state approval ratings, use these as a rough estimate of 2020 senate races, then add in coattails for either Elizabeth Warren (left-wing reformer) or Amy Klobuchar (farm state progressive). We'll then examine three scenarios: Optimistic (-2%--slowing economy, impeachment), Neutral (+3%) , and Pessimistic (+6%--good economic numbers, impeachment backlash), and see who does the best in each. Farm states will give Klobuchar minus 3%. Urban states will give Warren minus 3%. Meanwhile, farm states will cost Warren +3% and urban states will cost Klobuchar +3%. North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Colorado are neither rural, nor urban.
An '*' indicates an incumbent Republican senator. A '(Blue)' indicates a Democratic incumbent. 28 states had Trump underwater (Vermonters, for example, pegged his approval rating at 24% in October and 25% in November), while 21 states have him above. Ohio was about even.
Vermont - 24 - 25
Massachusetts - 25 - 26 (Blue)
Hawaii - 26 - 24
Maryland - 28 - 28
California - 28 - 30
Rhode Island - 31 - 32 (Blue)
Washington - 33 - 31
Oregon - 33 - 37 (Blue)
New York - 34 - 34
Illinois 34 - 35 (Blue)
Connecticut - 35 - 37
New Hampshire - 36 - 39 (Blue)
New Jersey - 36 - 37 (Blue)
Delaware - 37 - 39 (Blue)
Nevada - 38 - 40
New Mexico - 39 - 40 (Blue)
Minnesota - 40 - 41 (Blue)
Colorado - 40 - 41 (*)
Maine - 41 - 42 (*)
Virginia - 41 - 41 (Blue)
Pennsylvania - 42 - 44
Michigan - 44 - 45 (Blue)
Iowa - 44 - 45 (*)
Arizona 45 - 46 (*)
North Carolina - 45 - 46 (*)
Wisconsin - 45 - 49
Georgia - 46 - 45 (**)
Florida - 47 - 48
Ohio - 48 - 51 ................. even
Utah - 49 - 49
Kansas - 49 - 50 (*)
Texas - 49 - 49 (*)
S. Carolina - 50 - 51 (*)
Indiana - 51 - 52
Alaska - 52 - 52 (*)
Missouri - 52 - 53
Montana - 52 - 51 (*)
Nebraska - 53 - 51 (*)
Mississippi - 54 - 56 (*)
Louisiana - 54 -53 (*)
Tennessee - 55 - 56 (*)
Alabama - 57 - 59 (Blue)
Idaho - 59 - 62 (*)
S Dakota - 60 - 63 (*)
Arkansas - 62 - 63 (*)
Kentucky - 62 -59 (*)
Wyoming - 62 -67 (*)
Oklahoma - 63 - 63 (*)
North Dakota - 67 - 65
W Virginia - 68 - 67 (*)
Warren
Optimistic: net, plus 7 seats (TX, GA x 2, NC, AZ, IA, ME, CO, minus AL).
Neutral: Plus 2-3 (AZ, ME, CO, minus AL; NC a toss-up)
Pessimistic: No change - plus 1 (CO, minus AL; AZ a toss-up)
Klobuchar
Optimistic: plus 12 (NE, LA, MT, AK, SC, KS, GA x 2, NC, AZ, IA, ME, CO, minus AL
Neutral: plus 3-4 (GA x 2, NC, IA, ME, CO, minus AL, MI; NC a toss-up)
Pessimistic: plus 1 (ME, IA, CO minus AL, MI)
This is, of course, a very rough approximation. There would be other factors like incumbency, and candidate competence, and who's to say that ±3 is appropriate. But, it does give one a feel for what a farm state candidate might accomplish in electing Blue senators, compared to an urban state nominee with better turn-out among city folk.
A super-optimistic scenario makes the contrast stark: if a -6 modifier is used (instead of only -2 for optimistic), the result for Klobuchar is an astonishing swing: +15, giving Blue 62 senators! Meanwhile, Warren's result would be a more modest +9, and 56.
Is Trump's floor at 35% - 40% nationwide, or could it be 30-35? If 30%, a -6, scenario could be stretched to -8 or beyond, which would allow Klobuchar to rescue the Alabama seat as well, and Warren to wrangle SC.
Update 10/11: one month later and the numbers have moved slightly Red-wards (if you click the link at the top, you'll see that many states are one digit higher; though some, like Wisconsin, moved from 45 to 49; I've added these numbers, above). Would these changes alter our admittedly very rough projections? Actually, they increase Klobuchar's haul to 59 in an optimistic wave, while leaving Warren at 54. In our neutral setting, the numbers see the possibility of a new vice president having the tie-breaking vote in both cases, and the possibility of a Red Senate for Warren (with Michigan the culprit). Our super-optimistic scenario, meanwhile, nets Klobuchar MI, MS, TN, with AL and KY at 50% likelihood, for around 63-64.
Fun: If we assign the major candidates to their home state numbers, we have a fairly accurate list of how 'liberal' each candidate is. Bernie (Vermont, at 25--is the most liberal state here), then Warren (Massachusetts, at 26), Harris (California, at 30), Yang (New York, at 34), Booker (New Jersey, at 37), Biden (Delaware, at 39), Klobuchar (Minnesota, at 41), and Buttigieg (Indiana, at 52).
The reason I mention these numbers is to underline how easy it is for supporters of the left-leaning candidates to project their own assurance: "Bernie'll knock their socks off out in the farm states!" when they don't live surrounded by reddish-purple farmers. Whether you like it or not, farm states like Iowa and Wisconsin have disproportionate weight in the Electoral College (and Senate). Either you deal with this reality, or you live with the consequences of your over-confidence.
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