Sunday, December 20, 2020

Getting Back To A Shared Reality

 #306: No "Going Back To 1950s" Unity.   Oh Yeah?

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In The Atlantic, Derek Thompson makes the case that since the 1950s, news, entertainment, and community spirit in general, have all splintered into countless micro-audiences, with each segment sharing little in common.  And Covid-19 has simply underlined that fragmentation.  Politically, this has lead to alternate realities for all media whose model features feeding on one's own propaganda.  We've become a sorry example of disunity, despite our nation's identity arguing otherwise.

At the risk of reaching for the unlikely, here's me imagining a turnaround:

1.  For a new president taking office amid a pandemic, the first instinct will be to communicate hope and encouragement.

2.  With anti-establishment media counter-programming blast furnace negativity, the only way forward will be a positive message that directs attention to a brighter future.

3.  So, rather than predictable and boring, or worse, angry and combative, make each presidential appearance/initiative a showcase for talent and participation.

4.  Announce ahead of time a topic for discussion.  Example: Affordable Housing.  Start with a joke, promise music later on, introduce guests, including celebrities, and--for our example--the Housing (HUD) secretary.

5.  Ahead of time, post a link on social media to a site that records statements, and gathers answers to questions.  Example: "If the US government paid to have your home insulated, and over the next ten years, the savings on your utility bills paid back that investment, would you sign up (after ten years, all the savings would be yours)?  At the end of each show, announce results.

6.  Hire talk/comedy show writers and producers.  Fashion once-a-week shows around specific topics.  The tone would be up-beat, slightly amusing.  Include skits, video shorts and cartoons to keep things fun.  The main feature would of course be introducing a possible government program or legislative initiative, with the President, Vice President, or cabinet secretary leading a relatively fast-paced introduction and brief conversation.  A link would lead to much deeper programming.

7.  It's here that I add a new twist to my previous suggestion that building a must-see video presentation for viewers is how one could conceivably control the political conversation.  In addition to a question / polling component used to drive an agenda, include a forum wherein people can deliberate.

8.  A dot.gov forum would bring people of varying political beliefs together to discuss issues.  Maybe:

  * An 'official', moderated discussion group considering the current week's topic.  

  * One-on-one discussions with other Americans.

  * Stratified layers of informal discussion that send 'good ideas' and consensus-builders to the next level.

9.  So, random groups of perhaps 25 commenters ('lurkers' would constitute many times that number), with those receiving the most 'up' votes able to post and vote at the next highest level, though all levels would be transparent.

10.  This funnels consensus upwards, creating a record of arguments that can be read by all, and favoring 'reality' to the extent that it follows common sense.  Though not for everyone, the challenge to the strong willed would be "Make your case, or admit your reality can't take it." This is likely to prove alluring, and may in the end change minds.  Or, even if derided as 'rigged', such a forum would attract and focus attention, which is of course paramount. 

11.  Additional concerns:

  * Ubiquitous internet would need to be a right, so as to enfranchise all Americans.  Perhaps this would eventually mean the makeover of most internet service providers, creating public, non-profit utilities with a minimum connection for everyone paid for by government. 

  * Verification of accounts could involve the usual logging in/confirmation with passwords.

  * Winnowing all comments on a weekly topic would likely be beyond most moderator's abilities.  So, moderating would involve our top 'levels', with especially salient arguments highlighted for all to read.  Moderators could be hired by the government, or perhaps would be those who make it to the top on a given topic.

  * Financial rewards could conceivably be added, especially for moderators at the top.  And, if necessary to generate interest, small rewards (savings bonds) for making it to a certain level would be possible.

  * What would the formula be for organizing a given topic?  For the week's main topic, each 24-hour period would randomly generate as many 25-person groups at the base level as needed.  Every few hours, those with the most 'up' votes per post (across all 'base level' groups) would receive a notice that they could post at the next level.  Their most popular posts would automatically occur at that higher level as quotes and a link.  Those admitted with posting ability at higher levels could then give and receive 'up' votes at that higher level.  Every few hours, the highest are advanced, creating a virtual conveyor-belt of debate, with the advancing arguments likely being those appealing to the widest range of opinions: consensus.

For topics other than a given week's chosen topic, a more deliberate pace would be employed.  Perhaps a bulletin board of proposed topics could begin one-on-one, attract more members all the way to 25, then be eligible for our 'conveyor belt' of levels as each additional 25 members sign up.

  * As a rule, our forum, because it would be transparent (anyone could read any level and any topic), would gradually educate and unite (this, for a population that has recently been subjected to intense quantities of disinformation).  And because anyone could follow the reasoning of those with alternative views, side-by-side with rebuttals, reality is bound to win out, on our forum, and at home.


Sunday, December 13, 2020

Biden's Best Bet: Deliberate Pace Or Blitz?

 #305: Hodgepodge: Politics

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Part 1: Is Biden Bumbling Already?

The short answer: 'no'.  Anything Biden's likely to do, and anyone he's likely to appoint, will be many hundred times better than the shambolic mess of the past administration.  Sure, there're possible missteps in appointing team members with ties to industries they'll oversee.  But, like Obama's making peace with insurance companies before passing ObamaCare, it's often better to win, than to be perfect in winning.  And then there's the Nixon-to-China concept: it's arguably easier to get powerful players, like defense and ag giants, to go along with reform if that reform is being carried out by people the big boys trust.  

Part 2: Deliberate Pace Or Blitz?

As with most things, it'll be a combination.  That's because long-term, taking the time to explain an issue means voters will understand, and be resistant to simplistic slogans.  But, short-term, delivering on promises is what will solidify voter choice.  And when the opposition party is determined to obstruct, the only answer is to blitz: plant as many seeds as possible, as quickly as possible, so any rats in the barn can't keep up.

As I wrote last month, the deliberate approach might involve 'must-see' spectacles on TV, with celebrities mixed with explanation.  Like FDR's fireside chats, make people comfortable tuning in regularly (celebrities, jokes, music), but get an explanation across: this is the problem, this is why we're solving it this way.  Aim for low-information voters.  Then, link to in-depth reporting and analysis for those who're passionate about an issue.

I know I'd tune in.

The need for speed is best summed up by David Roberts at Vox.  He makes the case that there's nothing to be gained from attempts at compromise, and everything to be gained by going 'all-in'.  

A good combination of explanation and blitz might be the threatened use of an obscure constitutional power no president has ever invoked.  Biden could explain to the American people that the country faces an emergency, and that he needs a team in place, right away.  If Republicans in the Senate get in the way, he'll invoke his super-power.  Hopefully, they'll see the light and act ASAP.  Repeat this pattern for things like Climate Change ("...otherwise, I'll have to declare a state of emergency.")  Meanwhile, promulgate dozens of lesser orders and actions.

Part 3: OK, Why Did Biden Win Big, and Dems Just Break Even?

This is in count-down form.  The biggest factor is listed last.  The first five (#s 10 through 6) all fall under Trump-vote-bigger-than-expected category which didn't overwhelm Biden's huge wave, but it meant down-ballot Republicans did better than expected.  The last four (#s 4, 3, 2 and 1) were all used against Dems by their opponents. 

10. Checks -- for low-information voters, a presidential signature on a check is a powerful statement.  Those in need can't be expected to think beyond their plight.

9. Confidence Man -- for low-information voters, a candidate who is self-assured, quick to choose words, and care-free, is attractive.  When combined with propaganda, the uglier effects of any misrepresentation and swindling can be hidden.

8. Machismo -- for the 'real' masculine/authoritarian, control, bullying, and displays of superiority are attractive.  Having a large military component to our culture means these tendencies are enhanced.  

7. Free Media - for low-information voters who happen to be channel-surfing, a live broadcast of a presidential rally can be more effective than a half-dozen commercials.  Ah, the old days, when an appearance meant 'equal time' for one's opponent.

6. Virus - for a candidate willing to risk additional infection and death, having volunteers go door-to-door--assuming one's opponent isn't taking the same steps--is a definite advantage.  Biden did the right thing; Trump's team was careless.

5. Polls - for high-information independents, knowing that polls showed a blow-out for both Biden and most down-ballot Dems, the obvious response was to split one's ticket.  It's also likely true that polling leading up to election day was under-representing Republican first-time voters.

4. Socialism - for certain demographic groups (Cuban-Americans, Venezuelan-Americans), this is a trigger word that spoils any Democratic outreach.  Meanwhile, most hoping for 'Socialism' are thinking Sweden.

3. Pack-The-Court - for traditionalists, especially 'soft' Republicans, the idea of adding more Supreme Court judges confirms their suspicions that while Biden may be okay, splitting one's ticket is the obvious answer.

2. Defund-The-Police - for those who are in any way anxious about their safety, this is an obvious arrow in the wrong direction.  Meanwhile, many looking for police reform feel they have no other choice but to get radical, as they feel they've tried everything else.  Unfortunately, low-information voters decide most elections, and violence (often 'outsiders' ruining a peaceful march) can be turned into propaganda.

1. Propaganda - not just low-information voters, but those who choose to follow biased journalism never hear both sides of a story--let alone the truth, which is nearly always the opposite of what's broadcast on certain notorious media.  Meanwhile, social media platforms have up to now done little to limit misinformation.

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Roll Call compares top-of-ticket voting with down-ballot, and shows that gerrymandering had a large role in the 'lack of coattails' effect.  Our #6, Republicans campaigning in a pandemic, may have meant low-information voters on the Republican side were more familiar with down-ballot candidate names.  It's also possible that low-information voters wanted Biden, but didn't have the time to vote any further (our #5, but for Dems).

Brian Stryker has a fairly convincing take: states with big Coronavirus caseloads saw bigger polling errors, pointing to a certain kind of voter more likely being at home to answer the phone: Biden voters who took Covid more seriously than did Trump voters.  Stryker estimates that this accounts for 40% of 2020's polling error.  So, the second half of our #5 should probably be our #1.

Saturday, December 5, 2020

My Favorite Music

#304: My Favorites, Ranked

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I listen to Radio Paradise, which allows listeners to rank songs from 1 - 10.  I've done this for nearly ten years without really thinking why, until today, when I decided to add up all songs I rated '10', by artist.  Turns out there are 145.  {For artists that appeared in more than one act, I've combined their numbers in a sliding scale.}

After the list below (which includes all artists with at least two songs), I list my favorites that other listeners agree on, and disagree with (the highest and lowest average scores compared to mine).

The Grateful Dead/Jerry Garcia  12 - 15
Bob Marley  10
Joni Mitchell  9
Natalie Merchant/10,000 Maniacs  9 -13
Talking Heads/David Byrne  8 - 11
Santana/Santana Brothers  6 - 7
U2  6
The Rolling Stones  6
Crosby, Stills, Nash/ & Young  5 - 7
Allman Brothers  5
The Beatles  5
Traffic  4 - 5
Steely Dan  4
Aretha Franklin  3
Anna Ternheim  3
Neko Case  3 - 4
Marvin Gaye  3
Bob Dylan  3 - 4
The Pretenders  3
Jimi Hendrix  3
Van Morrison  3
Sarah McLachlan  3 - 4
The Black Keys  2
Led Zeppelin  2 
Fleetwood Mac  2
The Band  2 - 4
Leon Russell  2
Shook Twins  2
Al Green  2
Neil Young  2
David Bowie  2
My Morning Jacket  2

So, here are the songs that, on average, other listeners agree are the best:
(Note: to average a 9.2, nearly everyone has to agree the song is a '10')

Jimi Hendrix - All Along The Watchtower ... 9.2
Beethoven - Moonlight Sonata ... 9.1
The Beatles - You Never Give Me / The End ... 9.0
Dave Brubeck - Take Five ... 9.0
Jimi Hendrix - The Wind Cries Mary ... 8.8
Antonio Vivaldi - The Four Seasons - Spring ... 8.7
Chuck Berry - Johnny B. Goode ... 8.7
Pink Floyd - Speak To Me / In The Sky ... 8.6
Van Morrison - Into The Mystic ... 8.6
Vince Guaraldi - Linus & Lucy ... 8.6

And, compared to my list (that are all '10s'), these rank worst, on average:

Joni Mitchell - Don Juan's Reckless Daughter ... 5.8
Cocteau Twins - Alice ... 5.8
Joni Mitchell - Black Crow ... 5.8
Dave Matthews Band - Don't Drink The Water -- 5.9
The Band - This Wheel's On Fire -- 6.1
David Byrne - Make Believe Mambo -- 6.1
World Party - Hollywood -- 6.1
Tinariwen - Cler Achel -- 6.3
Natalie Merchant -- This House Is On Fire -- 6.3
Talking Heads -- Totally Nude - 6.3

A few things:
* I listen to the legacy version of Radio Paradise.  This is because my internet connection is not particularly good.
* My '10's tend to be songs with which I'm familiar enough to have established a firm opinion.  So, there are many songs that'll probably end up as a '10' once I've heard them enough.  And, so, they're by definition more recent.
* There are currently many bloggers listing their most listened to music, according to their download site, which keeps track.  Frankly, I prefer to hear a really good DJ playing enormous variety.  This means I rarely get tired of my favorites, and when I hear them they're a surprise.  Plus, I'm constantly hearing new music and artists I wouldn't otherwise be exposed to.  While this exposure is also the case for algorithms at streaming sites, I don't like particular kinds of music, I like good music.
* I've written recently about the main lyricist for the Grateful Dead, Robert Hunter, who passed away last year.  I also ranked Jerry Garcia's top 50 this summer to commemorate the 25th anniversary of his passing.
* Five years ago I ranked my favorite musicians, a list I'm unsurprised to find mirrors my unconscious choices, above.  I then updated it.