Friday, March 21, 2014

Asking The Right Questions

Surveys That Don't

As you may have read, recent surveys seem to indicate that the ACA, or ObamaCare, is not popular, with roughly 45% approval and 55% disapproval.  However, when one asks those being surveyed why they disapprove, there's something like a 15% segment of the population that thinks the ACA doesn't go far enough, and that 'Medicare-for-all' or 'single-payer' insurance is the only way to go.  When re-examined in this light, the ACA is mildly popular, 45, 40, 15.  Furthermore, this accounts for why surveys find there's no appetite for repealing ObamaCare; basically, the 45 and 15 are of one mind on that account.

This pattern sheds a light on American politics in general.  When asked if they're Conservative, Moderate or Liberal in their politics, Americans split something like 30, 50, 20.  But that's the wrong question.  For one thing, Conservatives adhere to labels, and to regimentation, as a rule, so there probably are about 30% of Americans who are Conservatives.

On the other hand, the opposite of conservative is actually progressive.  If you like the way things were in the past and try to hang on to that, you're likely a conservative.  If you see history moving towards justice, inclusiveness and expanding horizons, you're likely a progressive.  The trouble with asking where progressives place themselves on a conservative --> liberal continuum is that most progressives want to be where the 'sweet spot' is; where the most progress can be made.  Sometimes this means being moderate; other times it means pushing hard for what's right.

Here's an example.  The Obama presidency has been criticized for being too harsh when it comes to the War on Drugs.  Some liberals would have the president move much faster to lighten penalties, allow for treatment instead of prison, etc.  What this critique ignores is the danger in moving too fast.  A political party can be rolled up and tossed out of the White House like an old, holey rug, once a majority of the public settles on a narrative that views presidential policy as unwise.  In this regard there are no second chances and a swing to a Republican presidency risks a major relapse (no CO and WA recreational marijuana, most likely).

In other matters, progress can be sudden.  ObamaCare is a good example.  If one examines the play-by-play, the ACA was the sweet spot.  A 'public option' that would have competed with private insurers was just out of reach (Senator Joe Lieberman of CT was the needed vote that got away).  But to have solid medical insurance is something quite wonderful if you're one of the tens of millions who've already benefitted and will likely sign up in coming years.  

Perhaps only a plurality of voters support ObamaCare, but that's because they were asked the wrong question.  The right question would instead be: Was it possible for ObamaCare to have been more to your liking, given the Congress we had in 2010?