Crystal Ball Time

 #335: I Review Kevin Drum's 'Trends' List

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The list's full description is on Kevin's website.  Here we have the barest description (black text is quoted), and my commentary, in green.

1. US politics will stay toxic as long as Fox News is around. Rupert Murdoch has discovered that spreading fear and outrage is the most reliable way of making money....

Kevin has been writing, recently, about how Fox News propaganda is the crux of what's wrong with our politics.  And he's right.  But, couldn't Fox slide downhill, over 10-20 years, along with the number of its core viewers?  If so, it'll be ignored, until it's not there anymore.

2. Don't worry so much about China. China is now, and will remain, our biggest rival....  They are a paranoid autocracy that will never fully embrace market capitalism. This is their Achilles' heel....

Authoritarian governance is rarely good governance.  That's because Big Man leaders are self-chosen, and likely quite egocentric--if not, they'd likely fail on their way up the ladder.  But egotists make poor decisions, due to their self-interest getting in the way.

3. Black students need to graduate from high school reading at a 12th grade level. This will not "solve" racism. However, it will prove impossible to make very much progress on reducing racism until Black kids are performing at the same level as white kids.

Something has to happen to our system of school funding to get resources to the neediest school districts.  Otherwise, there's little hope.  Here's the argument for focusing Biden's Infrastructure bill on school upgrades. (Since Biden's plan only has $100 billion for schools, maybe at least one big school district pilot project per year--just to show what's possible).

4. Geoengineering is our future. ....[T]he world has shown no willingness to take the collective action needed to address climate change, and it's unlikely that a fabulous new invention will do the job either. Around 2040 or so this will become obvious and the only alternative will be some sort of geoengineering. 

And yet the price of renewable energy keeps falling (compared to coal, oil, nuclear and gas).  Electrify things like transport, use batteries for temporary storage, and it's all possible.  Kennedy's 'Man on the moon' seemed just as unlikely, until it happened.  Geoengineering, on the other hand, is the solution that's ready-made for those seeking delay.

5. The United States is the best placed country in the world right now. For all our faults, the US is by far the country best positioned to be successful over the next few decades.

An uncommon observation.  Most people would disagree in light of recent events.  I'm with Kevin on this.

6. We are entering a biotech golden age. Cheap genome sequencing, CRISPR, and mRNA vaccines are harbingers of the near future.

I'm not on board.  Aside from a few obvious health benefits, etc., there's much that's unnecessary, as well as potentially dangerous, once we begin tinkering with life's basic structure.  That's my initial, conservative, reaction.

7. Islamic terrorism will disappear within a decade. 

Here's Kevin at his best.  His most recent writing on the link between leaded gasoline and violence is here.

8. Artificial intelligence is coming.  Real AI is still about 20 years away, but when it comes it will be the biggest breakpoint ever in human history. 

Kevin knows a thousand times more than I do about AI.  Still, "biggest hype ever" is begging for a takedown.

Thoughts On Following Recipes

 #334: Homelife

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The current New Yorker has a Margaret Talbot article on the history of 'home-economics' (based on a review of Danielle Dreilinger's “The Secret History of Home Economics: How Trailblazing Women Harnessed the Power of Home and Changed the Way We Live).  Here's one unrelated comment after another:

1. Very funny observations (example: how 'white sauce' was used in the mid-20th century as a go-to solution for guaranteeing good recipes).

2. I especially enjoyed the description of how 'the electric kitchen' was demo-ed in the early-to-mid 20th century: prominent husbands at a community gathering were turned loose with a portable electric range to show how easy everything was.

3. A distant relative of ours, who ended up living with our family in the '20s and '30s, after she'd retired, was one of the first women to receive a PhD in chemistry.  She then taught the subject at a small midwestern college.  Long ago I looked into her career, and was terribly disappointed to find that "Chemistry" was in fact home economics, though she would have studied Chemistry, initially.  What I didn't realize was that, according to Talbot's article, women found ingenious ways to convince men that they should study Chemistry.  That. for example, improvements in health, nutrition, and in-home efficiency were at stake. 

4. Though I'm a notorious ignorer of recipes, this is only because:

a) I'm frugal 

b) I'm usually time-constrained

c) I enjoy working with what's available in the kitchen   

d) Plus, I'm nearly 100% organic, yet have limited access to a wide variety of same.  

All of which points me away from recipes, though the idea of a consensus on what tastes good, or how to get the best out of life, is, I find, inherently worthy of a closer look--and often, adoption.

5. A relative on my mother's side was a dietician by training, prior to marrying.  And we have many of her recipes.  Sometime, I'll inventory the collection (mid-20th century) and see whether she adhered to the 'food pyramid'--something developed by the first home economics experts.  I fear there's likely to be more pleasing than peas-in her recipes.  At least she didn't have corporate brands for shortcuts back then.

6. Doubtless all of us have our little weaknesses when it comes to food.  For me, it's butter on bread.   Luckily, I've avoided the mindless consumption of 'desirable' food, like donuts and cake, thanks to a thorough immersion in what used to be called the "counter-culture": the avocado and cheese sandwich that was superior if it had bean sprouts in it, and definitely so if the bread was brown.

My Infrastructure Week Idea, Improved

 #333: Jabs, Jobs and Justice

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A few loyal readers have let me know that my take on Infrastructure Week needs to be... "refined", was the word used.  That it was on the right track, but needed... "touching up", since holding a vote on infrastructure spending in each of hundreds of localities would be difficult to handle.  And what if Iowa wanted bio-fuel demonstration projects and Biden had to say 'no'?

Okay, I'll bite.  Keep the focus at the local level: each House district is guaranteed three billion dollars over ten years, with most coming in 2022 and 2023.  That's $435 B (plus 1, for DC) x 3 = 1.308 trillion, which is 58.1333% of what the Biden plan proposes (remaining monies would be spent where needed).  But, instead of generalized "water pipes, bridges and charging stations", describe each congressional district's haul, including specific projects and the job numbers involved.

So, for example, each year:

200 Charging Stations: 400 construction jobs

10,000 Home Energy Retrofits: 3,000 HVAC jobs

500 Lead Pipe and Paint Removal Actions: 300 maintenance jobs

100,000 farmland Acres Converted to Regenerative Agriculture: 1,000 permanent farm economy jobs

5,000 schoolroom retrofits: 1,000 construction jobs

Top Ten Road and Bridge Projects (named, using state and local lists): 500 construction jobs

and so on

Each district would be different, of course.  Some would be the site of major research labs, some would need broadband more than others, some would have a greater need for elder care upgrades, etc.  But each would be guaranteed their $3 billion.

Most project lists would be put together by congressional support staff, with listening tours conducted in-district to gather suggestions, winnow ideas, and receive feedback.  For districts where the elected representative declines to participate (this would be expected in many Republican districts), a panel of elected mayors, county board members, and/or other volunteers (prominent business owners, journalists, professors) could be appointed by the local Democratic party, with bi-partisan membership being the goal, if not the end result.

A plan for each congressional district, addressing specific local needs, and promising specific numbers of additional jobs, would be all but impossible to defeat, either as legislation that is quickly agreed to--with or without bi-partisan support in the Senate--or as a plan that is the central issue in the 2022 election.  

The Democratic party slogan could be: Jabs, Jobs and Justice.

Will Amazon Regret Its Anti-union Actions?

#332: Alternatives To Amazon

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In the wake of the recent employee vote in Bessemer, Alabama to not unionize an Amazon warehouse, the question occurred to me: Does Amazon know what's best for its bottom line?

The knee-jerk reaction of any big business is to want to remain union-free.  But what about the down-side to appearing less than magnanimous?  Today's Rolling Stone newsletter, for example, featured a list of Amazon alternatives.  The likely reason that article appeared ties in with Amazon's anti-union actions.  

And if Amazon begins to be seen as a Goliath, whose founder is not only the richest person in the world, but whose management denies a middle-class lifestyle to its employees, the damage to the Amazon brand could be far more serious than the cost of treating employees generously.

Granted, some customers could go elsewhere if prices were to rise too high, but with its inherent price advantage over competitors with smaller sized operations, goodwill would seem the more important factor.  Besides, being a 'team' player may be all that's standing between Amazon and anti-trust legislation.