June Updates

Links To All Updated Blog Posts

I recently revisited, and in some cases re-edited, all 74 blog posts.  Here's a list of those I updated, beginning with my fifth article way back on November 2, 2010:

#5: Take It To A Higher Level.  11/2/10.  A simple change that makes politics people-powered.
Update: How a congress-critter could actually 'see' each constituent opinion--secret vote not necessary. Also, Los Angeles' proposal to pay voters to vote (illegal, on federal level).

#27: Unbundling Pay TV.  5/12/13.  Paying less for the TV channels you want.
Update: Provided guesstimated cost/savings.  Also, link to related article.

#33: Presidential Aplomb.  11/17/13.  Ranking US presidents.
Update: Minor clarifications.

#35: Gamified Labor.  11/24/13.  Making work into a game.
Update: Emphasized the importance of unions and bargaining to prevent pseudo-rewards.

#37: Anonymous Safety. 1/6/14.  A safe internet that can still allow anonymity.
Update: Added a trigger warning for foul language and other harassment issues.

#38: What Is Brainpower.  2/1/14,   Forgetfulness as internal cue.
Update: Made the example of forgetfulness I describe consistent, and easier to understand.

#41: The Hive Mind.  4/5/14.  Prediction as social media.
Update: Added link to a website that comes pretty close to what I propose.

#42: Farm Heroes Saga.  4/17/14.  My experience with this game app.
Update: My impressions, having now progressed from level 50 to 500....

#44: Obama.  1/3/15.  I talk about our president.
Update: I incorporate material I posted on Alex Voltaire's Northumbrian Countdown blog.

#46: My Favorite Web Links.  3/14/15.  Top ten list.
Update: #4 is now a link to the music I listen to; plus some clarifications.

#54: 13 Positions For A Republican Reboot.  11/12/15.  Proposed Re-make For Republican Party.
Update: Rewrote #12 and #13.

#60: My Little Twitter Idea Finally Revealed.  1/3/16.  Twitter could be a bigger beast.
Update: I rewrote the piece, incorporating subsequent feedback into the original.

#66: My Best Blogging.  3/16/16.  Statistics for this site's 'best' and 'most popular'.
Update: both Best and Most Popular are updated to the present.

#67: Playing The President. 3/16/16.  GMT's presidential decision-making boardgame.
Update: three additional comments since my piece was first published.

#72: Monetizing Online Journalism.  4/11/16.  Imagining an ad-free world, starting with a blogger's banquet.
Update: Added the possibility that if this idea were considered gambling, it could be run by a non-profit, and therefore be legal.

#73: Trump's Possible Veep Picks.  5/14/16.  Already two updates!
Update: The boomlet for Robert Gates, and the sinking of New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez.  I don't think the cork can be put back in the top-5 prospects bottle.

Hillary’s Secret Weapon: Bernie

Bernie, You’re On In 6, 5, 4, ….

The Hillary Clinton camp needs as many Bernie Sanders supporters as possible in November.

Bernie, meanwhile, has built a movement that, knowing it’ll fall short of its goal, needs a way forward.

Absent the obdurate pride that big egos often demand, this is a perfect opportunity for outreach.  And the Hillary camp is probably considering its options.  Here’s one approach:

1.  Hillary’s offer of outreach, if sincere and reasonable, is just as important as whether Sanders accepts.  

2.  Mix up a combination of inclusivity with take-your-medicine by announcing, that Sen. Sanders is welcome to tackle three issues, legislatively, during the course of a Hillary presidency—either as a rotating cabinet member, or as a senator, whichever he wants.

3. Three possibilities:

*  Living Wage advocate, pushing legislation for higher wages.

*  College Affordability czar, putting together a legislative plan.

*  Drug Policy reformer, setting out sensible, realistic legislation.

In all three cases, let Bernie bring it, getting as much accomplished as possible.

The beauty of Sanders and Clinton combining forces is that: A) Sanders is forced to face the music of realistic expectations, as legislation is watered down in order to pass; and B) Clinton, likewise, must confront the likelihood of fairly radical success, if Sanders supporters push the Democratic party to a big victory in November.

Trump's Possible Veep Picks

Trump's Veep Pick

Speculation on who a candidate will pick is always fun.  Let's review Trump's possibilities:  

First, we know he wants someone with electoral experience (and certainly not the losing kind).

From least to most likely, and considering only Senators and Governors, with an exception for Speaker of the House:

#13:  Jeff Sessions (Senator - Alabama).  If loyalty were all-important....  Sessions was a booster way back in the early primaries.  But he brings nothing.

#12:  Chris Christie (Gov - New Jersey).  Another loyalist who'd provide Trump with attack dog bite.  Serious downsides however: Bridgegate scandal, unpopularity in home state; problems that may have to be ignored if nobody else wants it.

#11:  Rick Scott (Gov. - Florida).  The right state for Republican hopes, but Scott has middling popularity, plus has had serious ethical lapses, dropping him down this far in the rankings.

10:  Joni Ernst (Sen. - Iowa).  Only just elected to the Senate from out of nowhere, she lacks the experience that Trump needs.  Otherwise, a woman candidate from a swing state, with anti-Washington instincts, and an earthy, Midwest farm background would be perfect. 

#9:  Mike Pence (Gov. - Indiana).  Like Ernst, Pence has ties to the Ted Cruz crowd, so choosing him might be a way to unite the 'outsiders' in the party.  Also, was a fairly popular and prominent member of the House of Representatives.  

#8:  John Kasich (Gov. - Indiana).  Another sitting governor with a long history in the House.  Didn't do well in the primaries, with a plodding, lackluster delivery, and was the butt of over-eating jokes (perhaps a reference to his mid-western mid-section).   But, he's tested, likable, seen as a moderate, and popular in his home state, which might be enough.

#7:  Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House - Georgia).  He'd be 73 on election day, which is perhaps too old when relative youth and vitality are desired.  But, he'd excel at being an attack dog, and has a long history of leadership on the outskirts of the Republican party.  His private life would invite potshots, however.

#6:  Susana Martinez (Gov. - New Mexico).  A potential #1 on this list who was brought low by a recent, somewhat scandalous incident in which she had obviously had too much to drink.  Popular, Latina, from a potential swing state....  Only problem is she probably wouldn't have wanted to be picked by someone like Trump, ...until her recent scandal.  Now, she might want to take the chance, since she probably won't get another such opportunity.  As a result, I've put her just this side of my top five.

#5.  Terry Branstad (Gov. - Iowa).  Beginning with Branstad, and to an ever greater degree with the remaining names on this list, I'm assuming that Republican prospects take a turn for the better in the months ahead, with polls showing Trump running even with Clinton, or possibly ahead, and the Republican establishment backing The Donald.  Branstad would be a catch.  Very popular, successful and boring in a good way.  Plus from a swing state, and with pull in the Midwest in general.  He's even said he's a "team player" (hint, hint).  But, on the other hand, there's no sizzle here.

#4.   Tom Ridge (former Gov. - Pennsylvania; was first Homeland Security czar under Bush II).  Another boring pick (age 71), but again in a good way.  If Trump is to win, he'll need to at least challenge the Democrat's near-lock in the Electoral College, and Pennsylvania would be a good place to start.  And Ridge begins to paper over Trump's inexperience with foreign affairs, not to mention lack of gravitas in general.  But, serving under Bush after 9/11 may make Ridge reluctant to throw in his lot with someone who blames Bush for that day of terror.

#3.  Nikki Haley (Gov. - South Carolina).  As a woman and an Indian (sub-continent) American who is popular and fairly prominent nationally, Trump would have to think twice about who his campaign needs (women, minorities) before passing up Haley.  Might help a little with Florida and North Carolina.  The sort of pick that would have pizzaz; though, like Sarah Palin was in '08, she's untested on a national stage.

#2:  Brian Sandoval (Gov. - Nevada).   Again with the importance of the Latino vote in the southwest (Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and possibly even Utah if it's close).  And Sandoval is popular.  Untested, nationally, though his name was mentioned as an unorthodox Supreme Court pick earlier this year.  And one could say that Trump's second home is Vegas.

#1:  Paul Ryan (Speaker of the House - Wisconsin; Veep candidate in '12).  Picking Ryan would probably mean that Trump was way ahead in summer polls prior to the Republican convention in Cleveland with just about everybody on board, plus that there'd been a huge scandal in the Clinton campaign, with chaos about to break out the following week at the Democratic convention in Philly.  Gravitas, youth, experience, a swing state, Ryan's got to be Trump's number one pick all else being equal.

Who's most likely? you ask.  I'd divide the list into three sections.  #1 through #5 involve Trump tying, or in the case of Ryan, consistently beating his general election opponent in summer polls.  #6 through #11 are choices that Trump would be able to make given his current polling (trailing, but by only single digits).  #12 and #13 would be the dregs that'll always be 'Yes' men, no matter what.  

So, if I had to predict at this stage in the race: a 5-point polling lead gets Trump Sandoval; a tie nets Ridge; a 5-pointer means Martinez; a 10-point deficit fingers Gingrich; and a 15-pointer or more is Christie's swan song exit out of public life.

Update 5/22/16:  It's only eight days later, but already we have a few new developments to discuss:

* Trump rebuffed a Robert Gates trial balloon this past week.  Gates (former Defense Secretary under both Bush II and Obama) would have been a winning ticket, if there's indeed one out there.

* Which points to the problem Trump may have convincing potential veeps to join his campaign.  He wants a 'yes' man or woman, and total control.  So, someone like Sandoval, Haley, Ridge or Branstad, even Kasich, each with too much to lose, is probably too big a lift--not to mention Ryan.  Which leaves, who?  Martinez?  Unlikely, despite what he needs (regionally, ethnically, his women problem), simply because he can't expect to suddenly be popular with Latino voters.

* Which brings us to the next name on our list, Gingrich.  This, coupled with a clarification (he's looking for Washington experience, and not so much electoral experience in general, so governors are probably brought low as a result), means either our list isn't comprehensive enough, or an oldster is Trump's man.  Well, at least Newt's been out of office for so long he can argue he's not responsible for the nation's ills, though the end of comity in Congress is probably his baby.

Update 5/30/16:  Only another eight days later, and yet another update.  

At a campaign rally in Albuquerque, NM last week, Trump belittled New Mexico's sitting Republican governor, the party's only major latina presence, and our list's #6.  This shocked the world of political punditry, since such a trashing seemed like a truly bone-headed misstep.  Trump, however, has yet to suffer from his impolitic expressions.  Accumulated, though, in the media mind, and rehashed during the general election, his chances are waning by the day.

Where does this leave his Veep selection process?  It almost certainly rules out our #1 through #5, #6, Martinez herself, obviously, as well as Kasich, Pence and Ernst.  At this point, we are down to the likes of FL governor Rick Scott, NJ governor Chris Christie or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Major Farce alert!

Update 6/12/16: The hints keep coming.

At a rally in Tampa Florida Trump asks the audience for Veep suggests, then calls out three names: Newt Gingrich, Jeff Sessions and Condi Rice.  These are our #7 and #12; plus, someone not on our list--and very unlikely to be interested, if she were asked.

Where was Gov. Rick Scott's name?  Perhaps the fact that Trump and Scott haven't met yet (an earlier meeting had been postponed) means he can't promote that name.  But, it may also indicate yet another 'sorry, but not me' response.  Since Jeff Sessions does nothing for a Trump ticket other than underline Trump's appeal as the leader of a Southern, rump Republican party, Newt lookin' more and more likely as second dude in waiting.

Update 7/16/16:  Trump picks Pence

With Trumps numbers looking reasonable (losing by only low single digits), and Pence heading into a re-election fight (as the governor of Indiana) that looked iffy, the pick was a good fit.  And, at the #9 position on my list, it was about right, since my list was based on Trump's prospects (the lower the number, the better off Trump's prospects).

Monetizing Online Journalism

Another Ambitious New Idea

Websites pay their bills using a combination of:

* Advertising
* Paywall / subscription
* Self-promotion
* Fundraising

But what if there was a better way?

What if getting visitors to pay not dollars, but pennies, was the answer?

I know, it doesn't sound promising, but hear me out:

-- Many people see a penny on the street and leave it lay
-- Which suggests that, perhaps, many people paying puny amounts, and not a few paying a lot, is the way to go
-- Especially so, if the reader experience doesn't end with reading, but involves commenting, and writing as well
-- So, here goes with an imaginary site that posts short pieces by in-house bloggers, as well as a steady flow of outside submitters:

A. Three Most Popular Comments
-- Site hires the three most popular commenters every day--as judged by the site's readers; these writers not only receive a one-post commission, but with each commission, gradually accrues increased pay and length of hire

B. Best Comment
-- Every day, site hires a 'best' commenter--in the site's opinion--with a commission to write about anything

C. Voice of the People
-- Each week, site pays a random visitor a 50%-of-weekly-proceeds commission to write about anything

All this assumes website visitors paying ten cents each per article clicked.  If the site starts big, with enough promotion to draw in a hundred thousand visitors a day, that's $20,000 per day, assuming an average of 2 articles per visit, less about two thirds of that in commissions, so a budget of around $2.4 million a year ($6,600 x 360), which would pay for regular writers and overhead.

The initial registration process would involve the usual credit card information exchange.  And each click on a thumbnail article summation would say "cost: 10 cents".  The Voice of the People commision, backed by 50% of weekly revenue, would thus pay $93,800, perhaps enough of an incentive to toss in a few dimes every few days.  The four daily commissions, meanwhile, would pay an average of $800 each, about right for aspiring writers.

Big picture, if this system is used for not just online content, like journalism, but other media as well (imagine paying a few cents to watch an ad-free TV program) this would be a way to gradually end the tyranny of advertising, something that has thoroughly infiltrated our culture.

Nay-saying:
-- Is it legal to pay a "commission" at random, when this is only a few steps removed from gambling (an up-front fee and a chance to win)?  Answer: Perhaps, if the site is organized as a non-profit.  If it's legal, how would the process be verified?  A: In general, the internet can generate a random number, which can then be compared to a list of visitor 10-cent purchases, with everything done transparently, or through an independent authority.  If a "commission" is not legal, could legislation to that end pass?  One would think so.
-- Is one hundred thousand visitors a day too optimistic for a Voice of the People payout of $90,000 each week?  A: The amount would vary, and the higher the amount, the more likely the site's success; thus, the promotion at launch.
-- Would an average visitor decide to register, and then toss in an average two dimes?  A: Would-be writers might guarantee several thousand visitors a day.  And once registered, there would, of course, be no need to do so again.  Beyond that, only an expert in online traffic would have a clear idea as to likelihood.
-- Is 10 cents too much?  The end of the penny is near, since it costs more to mint than it's worth.  The nickel is next.  The dime seems safe.

A Labor of Lawn

The Easy Way To Care For Grass

Example: Star of Bethlehem (photo: 5/3/16)




We've been experimenting with a wild lawn.  Here's how it works:

* We don't mow until June
* We hit weeds and trim around trees with a weed eater
* We're lucky to have had wildflowers already present that have spread as a result of no spring mowing.  We have huge fields of blue bells and sweet william in April, for example
* It perhaps goes without saying that we don't use any pesticides / herbicides or fertilizers, and we leave the summer grass clippings and fall's chopped up leaves in place
* We have a mix of full sun, partial shade, and understory tree cover, with plants 'choosing' where they want to grow (for example, violet beds in shade)

A side benefit to leaving spring grass unmowed is that 'volunteer' seedlings can be dug out and replanted elsewhere.  Plants in a yard reproduce every year, and seeds land in grass, sprout, and can then be found in the spring, unless we mow them off before we recognize them.