Sunday, October 3, 2010

What's Up With The Whig

Whiggin' It?

Today's Herald-Whig (Oct. 3, '10) contained an attempt at an overview of the electric car phenomenon from a local perspective.

The news that most likely precipitated the article was that the Chevy Volt would be sold on the coasts prior to being offered mid-country. This seems to have caused the writer to call a local dealership to get the scoop... and that was about it for his sources. I know it's been said many times before, but there is 'the google'.

Unfortunately for the reader, we learned that what is holding up the spread of the electric vehicle is the lack of re-fueling stations.

Most overviews I've read identify the commuter who can drive to and from work on an over-night charge as being the target demographic. Not the cross-country driver, although the vehicle does contain a 300-mile tank of gas in addition to the electric battery that will last for 40 miles (which is about right for a majority of commuters, I believe).

Significantly, the price of electricity is so much cheaper than the price of gas that the oft-quoted $41,000 price for a Volt, lowered into the low- $30,000 range by federal encouragement, is actually not that unlikely for someone who will do a vast majority of their driving to and from work.

Have to wonder whether a chart comparing the costs of buying a Volt, as opposed to an all-gas vehicle, might have piqued the general reader's interest. Instead, we get the "...nothing going on here, folks..." approach.

Hah, we are under no time constraints, and therefore, the urge to 'Whig it' can be resisted. So, let's look into the cost comparison:

*** Let's take a $20,000 vehicle that gets 25 mpg and add the price of gas
over a three year period.
Let's say $3.50 a gallon, average, over the next three years. And we'll say that
the owner averages 30 miles a day (shopping, entertainment, plus work).
So, that's 365 x 30 = 10,950 x 3 years = 32,850 divided by 25 = 1,314 gallons
meaning that gas costs 1,314 x $3.50 = $4,599.
That means the price of about $33,500 can be brought down to about $29,000.
Update: the next generation of Volts will qualify for California's
$5,000 tax credit rebate, as the battery will be guaranteed for either
10 years or 150,000 miles. So, if you live in CA, you're down to $24,000 !
*** But we're not finished. That's because GM is expected to lease the Volt for
a competitive price, thus being able to recycle the car's battery--the big ticket
item in an electric vehicle. Suddenly, the Volt becomes relatively competitive.

And is that government subsidy justified? Here's why it is:

** The eventual price of a mass-produced car like the Volt will drop as the price
of the all-important battery falls. But first there must be mass-production.

** The electric grid tends to be flush with extra electricity during the night, just
when people will be charging their electric cars (this is because power plants
are kept running 24/7). So, not only will we reap the environmental and
security risks of eliminating the need for more and more foreign oil, but we
won't necessarily need to build more power plants in the bargain.

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