Monday, February 18, 2019

All That 2020 Dem. Talk

A Note, And A Fun Experiment, RE: Dem. Nomination
...................

Note:
Seems candidates like Warren, Harris and Booker did well to get in early.  Why?  Because when you're the first of your school of fish in the water, you don't have to think about the implications.  Whereas, these candidates will send out big waves when they jump in:
   - Bernie: This would seriously impact Warren's candidacy, and probably hurt lefty ideas in general
   - Holder: Another Black candidate could impact race accordingly
   - Biden: Would impact Brown candidacy (everyday workingman)
The irony for these guys is that getting in, with such a large pool of candidates, jams up any others competing for the same priorities.
Actually, could financial backers for other candidates get behind a rival's same-kind-of-guy competitor?  Would be devious.

A Fun Experiment:
Will I Make Money?  I'll list the candidates and their chances (prices in cents) as reported by PredictIt, place 100 imaginary $$ on several, then update periodically:

Kamala Harris: 24      I'll put $35 here = 146
Joe Biden: 19
Bernie Sanders: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 15      I'll put $9 here = 60
Elizabeth Warren: 9     I'll put $23 here = 256
Cory Booker: 8            I'll put $5 here = 63
Amy Klobuchar: 7       I'll put $28 here = 400
Sherrod Brown: 7
Kirsten Gillibrand: 5
Michael Bloomberg: 3

As I write this, trends are up +1 for Harris, O'Rourke, Warren, and Booker.  Everyone else is even, with Sanders down -1.
Maybe by next year I'll have made some imaginary $$, though that's unlikely as a dropout's price will collapse.  So, I'll definitely be looking to sell, first chance I get.

Update: 2/23/19
Wow, I missed making a fortune by not getting on the Bernie Bus.  Could have sold, after price went up, and made enough to keep my imaginary portfolio in the black, no matter what.  Oh well.

Update: 2/28/19
My first sell/buy orders:

Kamala Harris: 24      146 shares
Joe Biden: 18             $10.80 buys 60 shares
Bernie Sanders: 16
Beto O'Rourke: 15      60 shares (sold @ .18) = $10.80
Elizabeth Warren: 9     256 shares
Cory Booker: 8             63 shares
Amy Klobuchar: 7       400 shares
Sherrod Brown: 7
Kirsten Gillibrand: 5
Michael Bloomberg: 3

Update 3/9/19

Another sell/buy wave:

Joe Biden: 25             60 shares (sold @ .25) = $15
Bernie Sanders: 25
Kamala Harris: 22      146 shares (buy 17 shares x .22 = 3.74) = 163 shares
Beto O'Rourke: 19    
Elizabeth Warren: 7     256 shares
Cory Booker: 18             63 shares (60 sold @ .18) = $10.80 = 3 shares
Amy Klobuchar: 6       400 shares ($25.80 x .06 = 430 shares) = 830 shares
Kirsten Gillibrand: 5

3 comments:

  1. Copied from an earlier (1/23/19) post:

    February 23, 2019 at 8:03 AM
    "My [brother's] entry in the hypothetical $100 PredictIt betting challenge:
    Beto 200 shares at .16 each ($32)
    Biden 100 shares at .19 each ($19)
    Bernie 100 shares at .21 each ($21)
    K. Harris 50 shares at .22 each ($11)
    C. Booker 150 shares at .8 each ((12)
    Gillibrand 50 shares at .4 each ($2)
    Oprah 50 shares at .2 each ($1)
    Predicting a Beto presidency, should he run."

    ReplyDelete
  2. Brother's sale of Bernie at $0.27 results in:
    Beto 200
    Biden 100
    Booker 150
    Harris 50
    Gillibrand 50
    Oprah 50
    Cash: $27

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Brother uses cash to buy Buttigieg, Beto:
      Beto 200 (+150 @ $0.15) = 350
      Biden 100
      Booker 150
      Buttigieg ($11 @ $0.11) = 100 shares
      Harris 50
      Gillibrand 50
      Oprah 50
      Cash: $27 - $26 = $1

      Delete