Our Next President

#246: Ranking The Likeliest Dozen Names
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My tweet #1189 ranked Donald Trump as least likely, of 12 possible candidates, to be president-elect on November 4th, 2020.  But, since this post concerns our next president, we'll remove Trump and instead use 'other' as a filler for #12.

So, here's that ranked list with my background reasoning:

#12 Other.  This could be Nancy Pelosi (if both Trump/Pence are impeached).  But the chances are so small, I can't even....  Or, almost as unlikely, a Republican alternative to Trump next year like Bill Weld.  Of course if Trump should somehow win, we won't know who our next president is until 2024, or possibly sooner if Trump wins, and then somehow stumbles.

#11 Yang.  Improbable candidates have won elections before.  After all, pro-wrestler Jesse Ventura became governor of Minnesota a while back; and then there's Trump.  But, stage presence accounted for those two unlikelihoods.  In Yang's case, there just isn't much charisma.  On the other hand, Yang's ideas are fresh, let's say.  I reviewed them here.  And here's a Quora session in which he lays out his thinking.

#10 O'Rourke.  There's raw, youthful exuberance, and then there's the uncanny ability to channel the wisdom of old age in a vigorous, young body.  Beto has toggled between the two, but also has a knack for zeroing in on key issues, so who knows.

#9 Sanders.  Despite his relatively high poll numbers, Sanders is far from #1.  That's because Warren has a positive spin on much the same material, while Sanders channels anger.  Plus, if he weren't so intensely negative--and endearing in a way--we'd all probably notice how impossibly old he is for a winning candidate--79 on election day.

#8 Harris.  So much raw talent, but somehow Harris finds a way to let down her guard when doing so is not advisable.  This is probably because California, and the SF bay area, is a more care-free world than is the national scene.  Maybe next time?

#7 Romney.  This is the one shocker on my list.  The reasoning here is that if Trump's job approval rating drops down into the 30% range during the impeachment hearings, Senate Republicans up for reelection next year may begin to peel away, leading to ratings in the 20% range, which in turn might lead to actual conviction in the Senate.  And though this is unlikely, Romney's chances are actually fairly good should Republicans then turn to someone with the name-recognition, financing, and track record to be up and running in a matter of months.

#6 Booker.  No candidate likes to admit their campaign is in trouble, but candor is refreshing, especially so if a Hail Mary pass is successful (and it appears Booker's necessary $1.7 million will be raised).  Booker is a good fit as the somewhat more moderate Warren, though as I mentioned previously, he really needs to tone down the bulging eyes when he speaks excitedly.

#5 Buttigieg.  Articulate, soft-spoken, friendly.  Another good fit should a more moderate Warren be called for.

#4 Klobuchar.  My own pick as Blue's best bet in the race to control the Senate, and thus enact a Blue agenda.  That is, a non-threatening politician who is fluent in farm-speak and, relative to other candidates, will have coattails in Red states like Iowa, Texas and Kentucky.  And, she has a sweet disposition, which is always a harder approach to impugn.   Klobuchar's chances probably depend on whether, and how quickly, Biden implodes.

#3 Pence.  If Trump bites the dust prematurely, there's the very good chance that Pence would be our next president for a year, or even a few months (Trump's likely impeachment may begin to eat away at his confidence, and health; so at his age, and with his diet, a heart attack or stroke isn't all that unlikely).

#2 Biden.  The likelihood of Biden winning the nomination, outright, isn't all that good, since he's falling in the polls and has his name associated with Trump's Ukraine scandal.  But the 2020 calendar (front-loaded) could result in an inconclusive 1st ballot in July at the Democratic nominating convention in Milwaukee (with 15% as a threshold to gain delegates in each state, Sanders, and possibly others, could acquire a small fraction of delegates; with Biden and Warren splitting the remainder: stalemate).  If so, Biden would be the logical 'compromise' candidate, especially since superdelegates (the party's elected Governors, Senators, etc.), would then have a vote on subsequent ballots.  Perhaps a deal would be reached whereby Biden would agree to step down in 2024 (he would be 82 that November).

#1 Warren.  As Warren has made her way up in the polls, she's looked more and more likely.  There's almost a cheery abandon to her delivery (for example, she's effusively welcoming to her questioners).  This joy in delivery is difficult for a politician to fake if they don't deeply believe in their mission.  But, even if this all bodes well for her, she's appealing to Blue voters.  That'll change once she gets to November.  Ideas like Medicare for all, free college, reparations, healthcare for undocumented residents, and the like, will be easy targets for the Red candidate.  Even so, she's the most likely.  I wrote about her here in December of last year.