Prediction: If Bernie's The Nominee

#267: Bernie: Good News and Bad
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If the 2020 Democratic primaries hand Senator Bernie Sanders the party's nomination--with either a vast plurality, or a slim majority, I predict three things will happen:

1. Bernie Will Win The Popular Vote in November. Whether he wins with a slight majority or an overwhelming edge is hard to say, but by anywhere from a razor thin margin, all the way to a blow out win, Dems will answer the call.

2. But, He'll Lose The Electoral College.  He'd likely win by massive margins on the West and Northeast coasts, but lose marginally in key midwestern and Southeast coastal states.  So, let's say he wins Michigan and Arizona, and all the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016, but loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Georgia.  That's 259 to 279.

3. Except, the Democrats Take The Senate, And...Barely...Hold The House.  Where Bernie loses votes, relative to 2018, is in the suburbs, where tidy lawns, cheerful dispositions, and middle-of-the-road politics rule.  But, centrist Democrats win in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa, while Alabama and Maine return to their primary colors (red and blue, respectively).  This means the Senate is Blue, 52 - 48.  In the House, Republicans take back a dozen or so swing seats, but fall short of a majority.

This all results in massive government gridlock, with a second impeachment trial likely, and a Mike Pence presidency (either as a result of impeachment, or due to the president's health) a real possibility by 2024.
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Update: 2/25: The bad news could possibly be extraordinary.  David Frum makes the case.
The detailed case for Bernie bombing: Broockman and Kalla deliver.