The 2020 Presidential Campaign Is All About... The Senate

#270: Joe Biden Matters Less Than Sara Gideon
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We all too often view politics as a 'Big Man' contest, when sometimes, the action is elsewhere.

Take 2020.  Given a Democratic senate majority, a re-elected Donald Trump is likely doomed to a second, perhaps successful Impeachment.  He has so much incriminating baggage, and so many henchmen willing to tell-all, that his prospects are exceedingly bleak--especially with the use of a secret ballot to convict.  And besides, without a Republican Senate, his actions as president would be constrained in all but a few areas.

Which is why Joe Biden is the safest choice in seeking to remove our current president.  That's because winning marginal, and even unlikely, senate contests in purple and red states is job one.  Our one alternative is Senator Bernie Sanders, who would run up large margins in coastal blue states where there are no competitive senate contests, while scaring away enough red state voters to jeopardize a senate takeover.

Here's President Trump's current approval numbers in states with key senate races:

Maine: -19
Colorado: -16
North Carolina: -8
Arizona: -6
Georgia (x2): -6
Iowa: -4
Montana: -2
Texas: +2
Alaska: +4
South Carolina: +6
Kansas: +7
Nebraska: +10
Tennessee: +12
Mississippi: +14
Alabama: +20
Kentucky: +24

Except for Alabama, these are all potential Republican losses, should candidate quality and sufficient funding allow Biden's coattails to prevail.

It should be noted that in 2016 all senate contests were won by the party that carried a given state, so the likelihood is that Biden would also reach 270 Electoral Votes for the win; nevertheless, the case is overwhelming that Biden is the better vehicle for securing Blue's fortunes.

And who is Sara Gideon?  She is likely Maine's Democratic senate candidate in 2020.