#393: Is He Right?
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Ian Leslie (most known for his writing on The Beatles) publishes a newsletter that I subscribe to. Today's issue was titled "The Biden Conundrum", a short essay that presents a sober assessment of our current president. Essentially, he argues, Biden's approval rating should be much higher, given his many successes.
First, I'm on the same page with much of what he writes. There are, however, a few disagreements that I explore below.
*** To start, Leslie cites recent NY Times polls that show Trump beating Biden in key battleground states (like Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan). He then admits:
"Polls taken a year or more out from a presidential election are notoriously unreliable, but there’s reason to think these are not just noise. First, they are part of a broader pattern. Not only are Biden’s ratings really, really bad - comparable to Carter’s at the same stage - they are ominously stable."
He's right about the unreliability, but not about Biden's ratings being all that bad. Compared to his most recent predecessors at the three year mark in their presidencies, Biden's numbers aren't all that different. See Kevin Drum's comparative chart.
And considering what happened to the 'sure' Democratic win in 2016, when Hillary Clinton had been the clear front runner in the polls, Biden being a slight underdog could actually be advantageous.
*** On foreign policy Leslie writes:
"The manner of the Afghanistan withdrawal was a black mark...."
This is conventional wisdom with little to back it up. President Trump had committed the US to exiting Afghanistan. The hope was that Afghan government forces could take over the fight. Evacuating US citizens and our Afghan friends would, however, have sent a signal that all was lost; thus, the messy exit when all hope was indeed lost. It's only in hindsight that we know the end was nearer than we thought at the time.
*** Appearance:
"I’m sorry to say it, but Trump just presents as more dynamic than Biden. The man has demonic energy."
But the closer one looks, the more one realizes how limiting his grasp on reality is; he's hobbled by his own single-minded self-regard. Most marginal voters are drawn to the vigor, initially; then many gradually recoil.
*** A Biden alternative:
"...there isn’t somebody obviously as good or better than him waiting in the wings. His choice of Kamala Harris for VP is starting to look like a tactical masterstroke. There is certainly no clamour for her to run in his place (although the NYT polling suggests that even she might now be a stronger candidate than him)"
and
"...he has already taken the decision to run and it’s almost certainly too late to reverse now. It would actually be destabilising and risky in all sorts of ways to instigate a succession battle one year out..."
Could be. Or, the new year may bring a surprise. What the Biden people can do is make it seem as though it's a team that's running for re-election. Along the lines of a periodic fireside chat, have Biden, Harris and cabinet members engaging with the public. Make these appearances entertaining and informative. Invite celebrities. It doesn't have to be all politics, just keep it interesting. For example, I went down an internet rabbit hole upon hearing the old Simon and Garfunkel song "Scarborough Fair/Canticle" on Radio Paradise. I discovered that the "cambric shirt" mentioned in the lyrics referred to a desirable fabric of the 16th century that came from India. There, it was called "kambala". Seems it was used for things like pajamas. Imagine Kamala Harris presenting Paul Simon with a embroidered shirt, in a short segment with the song playing quietly in the background.
Now imagine younger celebrities with strong feelings about issues, with Biden, cabinet members and experts discussing the issue in question. In a group setting Biden can question, rather than declare, suggesting that authority is invested in the evidence and the group, rather than the leader.
*** Overall:
"One reason America has ended up with a very old president is that so few Democrats under 70 are practised at the art of appealing to the median voter, rather than just to their own activists and donors."
Except this critique could be even more effectively used against the Republicans, whose fundamentalist voter base is almost never contradicted by their party's candidates. Meanwhile, Democrats are known for their 'big tent' party.
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