Trump's Veep Pick
Speculation on who a candidate will pick is always fun. Let's review Trump's possibilities:First, we know he wants someone with electoral experience (and certainly not the losing kind).
From least to most likely, and considering only Senators and Governors, with an exception for Speaker of the House:
#13: Jeff Sessions (Senator - Alabama). If loyalty were all-important.... Sessions was a booster way back in the early primaries. But he brings nothing.
#12: Chris Christie (Gov - New Jersey). Another loyalist who'd provide Trump with attack dog bite. Serious downsides however: Bridgegate scandal, unpopularity in home state; problems that may have to be ignored if nobody else wants it.
#11: Rick Scott (Gov. - Florida). The right state for Republican hopes, but Scott has middling popularity, plus has had serious ethical lapses, dropping him down this far in the rankings.
10: Joni Ernst (Sen. - Iowa). Only just elected to the Senate from out of nowhere, she lacks the experience that Trump needs. Otherwise, a woman candidate from a swing state, with anti-Washington instincts, and an earthy, Midwest farm background would be perfect.
#9: Mike Pence (Gov. - Indiana). Like Ernst, Pence has ties to the Ted Cruz crowd, so choosing him might be a way to unite the 'outsiders' in the party. Also, was a fairly popular and prominent member of the House of Representatives.
#8: John Kasich (Gov. - Indiana). Another sitting governor with a long history in the House. Didn't do well in the primaries, with a plodding, lackluster delivery, and was the butt of over-eating jokes (perhaps a reference to his mid-western mid-section). But, he's tested, likable, seen as a moderate, and popular in his home state, which might be enough.
#7: Newt Gingrich (former Speaker of the House - Georgia). He'd be 73 on election day, which is perhaps too old when relative youth and vitality are desired. But, he'd excel at being an attack dog, and has a long history of leadership on the outskirts of the Republican party. His private life would invite potshots, however.
#6: Susana Martinez (Gov. - New Mexico). A potential #1 on this list who was brought low by a recent, somewhat scandalous incident in which she had obviously had too much to drink. Popular, Latina, from a potential swing state.... Only problem is she probably wouldn't have wanted to be picked by someone like Trump, ...until her recent scandal. Now, she might want to take the chance, since she probably won't get another such opportunity. As a result, I've put her just this side of my top five.
#5. Terry Branstad (Gov. - Iowa). Beginning with Branstad, and to an ever greater degree with the remaining names on this list, I'm assuming that Republican prospects take a turn for the better in the months ahead, with polls showing Trump running even with Clinton, or possibly ahead, and the Republican establishment backing The Donald. Branstad would be a catch. Very popular, successful and boring in a good way. Plus from a swing state, and with pull in the Midwest in general. He's even said he's a "team player" (hint, hint). But, on the other hand, there's no sizzle here.
#4. Tom Ridge (former Gov. - Pennsylvania; was first Homeland Security czar under Bush II). Another boring pick (age 71), but again in a good way. If Trump is to win, he'll need to at least challenge the Democrat's near-lock in the Electoral College, and Pennsylvania would be a good place to start. And Ridge begins to paper over Trump's inexperience with foreign affairs, not to mention lack of gravitas in general. But, serving under Bush after 9/11 may make Ridge reluctant to throw in his lot with someone who blames Bush for that day of terror.
#3. Nikki Haley (Gov. - South Carolina). As a woman and an Indian (sub-continent) American who is popular and fairly prominent nationally, Trump would have to think twice about who his campaign needs (women, minorities) before passing up Haley. Might help a little with Florida and North Carolina. The sort of pick that would have pizzaz; though, like Sarah Palin was in '08, she's untested on a national stage.
#2: Brian Sandoval (Gov. - Nevada). Again with the importance of the Latino vote in the southwest (Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and possibly even Utah if it's close). And Sandoval is popular. Untested, nationally, though his name was mentioned as an unorthodox Supreme Court pick earlier this year. And one could say that Trump's second home is Vegas.
#1: Paul Ryan (Speaker of the House - Wisconsin; Veep candidate in '12). Picking Ryan would probably mean that Trump was way ahead in summer polls prior to the Republican convention in Cleveland with just about everybody on board, plus that there'd been a huge scandal in the Clinton campaign, with chaos about to break out the following week at the Democratic convention in Philly. Gravitas, youth, experience, a swing state, Ryan's got to be Trump's number one pick all else being equal.
Who's most likely? you ask. I'd divide the list into three sections. #1 through #5 involve Trump tying, or in the case of Ryan, consistently beating his general election opponent in summer polls. #6 through #11 are choices that Trump would be able to make given his current polling (trailing, but by only single digits). #12 and #13 would be the dregs that'll always be 'Yes' men, no matter what.
So, if I had to predict at this stage in the race: a 5-point polling lead gets Trump Sandoval; a tie nets Ridge; a 5-pointer means Martinez; a 10-point deficit fingers Gingrich; and a 15-pointer or more is Christie's swan song exit out of public life.
Update 5/22/16: It's only eight days later, but already we have a few new developments to discuss:
* Trump rebuffed a Robert Gates trial balloon this past week. Gates (former Defense Secretary under both Bush II and Obama) would have been a winning ticket, if there's indeed one out there.
* Which points to the problem Trump may have convincing potential veeps to join his campaign. He wants a 'yes' man or woman, and total control. So, someone like Sandoval, Haley, Ridge or Branstad, even Kasich, each with too much to lose, is probably too big a lift--not to mention Ryan. Which leaves, who? Martinez? Unlikely, despite what he needs (regionally, ethnically, his women problem), simply because he can't expect to suddenly be popular with Latino voters.
* Which brings us to the next name on our list, Gingrich. This, coupled with a clarification (he's looking for Washington experience, and not so much electoral experience in general, so governors are probably brought low as a result), means either our list isn't comprehensive enough, or an oldster is Trump's man. Well, at least Newt's been out of office for so long he can argue he's not responsible for the nation's ills, though the end of comity in Congress is probably his baby.
Update 5/30/16: Only another eight days later, and yet another update.
At a campaign rally in Albuquerque, NM last week, Trump belittled New Mexico's sitting Republican governor, the party's only major latina presence, and our list's #6. This shocked the world of political punditry, since such a trashing seemed like a truly bone-headed misstep. Trump, however, has yet to suffer from his impolitic expressions. Accumulated, though, in the media mind, and rehashed during the general election, his chances are waning by the day.
Where does this leave his Veep selection process? It almost certainly rules out our #1 through #5, #6, Martinez herself, obviously, as well as Kasich, Pence and Ernst. At this point, we are down to the likes of FL governor Rick Scott, NJ governor Chris Christie or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
Major Farce alert!
Update 6/12/16: The hints keep coming.
At a rally in Tampa Florida Trump asks the audience for Veep suggests, then calls out three names: Newt Gingrich, Jeff Sessions and Condi Rice. These are our #7 and #12; plus, someone not on our list--and very unlikely to be interested, if she were asked.
Where was Gov. Rick Scott's name? Perhaps the fact that Trump and Scott haven't met yet (an earlier meeting had been postponed) means he can't promote that name. But, it may also indicate yet another 'sorry, but not me' response. Since Jeff Sessions does nothing for a Trump ticket other than underline Trump's appeal as the leader of a Southern, rump Republican party, Newt lookin' more and more likely as second dude in waiting.
Update 7/16/16: Trump picks Pence
With Trumps numbers looking reasonable (losing by only low single digits), and Pence heading into a re-election fight (as the governor of Indiana) that looked iffy, the pick was a good fit. And, at the #9 position on my list, it was about right, since my list was based on Trump's prospects (the lower the number, the better off Trump's prospects).
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