#239: Ranked: Candidate Pairs
..............
Fast forward to November, 2019 ... Joe Biden is still the clear front-runner, causing the other Democratic candidates to dust off Plan B. For some bright campaign manager, that alternative plan could conceivably be a 2-candidate pairing that would challenge Biden's inevitability. For example, combine Bernie at 14% and Harris at 9%, and suddenly you're competitive with Biden's 30%--especially once the media focus shifts to our underdog pair.
So, I've chosen a dozen pairs, ranked in reverse order, from least to most likely in Nov. 2020. Of course our pairs require a reasonable shot at the nomination to begin with. And, yes, being listed second likely means an eventual Veep spot in all cases except our #1.
Losers
#12: Bernie Sanders & Julian Castro
This would probably be Donald Trump's dream ticket; he could hammer away at Bernie's honeymoon in the USSR, and Castro's calls for reparations and somewhat porous borders. The much ballyhooed Latino vote in Texas, likely another four years away from tipping Texas Blue, would likely come up short, as a flood of low-information Trump voters turn out.
#11: Bernie Sanders & Tulsi Gabbard
Another one to bring a smile (albeit strained) to Trump's face. The mainstream media would probably egg on a third party centrist to get into the race (someone like Starbuck's Howard Schultz) and the chance of a Trump re-elect would increase manyfold.
Very Close!
#10: Bernie Sanders & Kamala Harris
A bit more likely than the other two Bernie scenarios, the problem here is that Bernie's hardline Medicare-For-All stance, for example, erases Harris' bridge building to moderates; likewise, Sanders would be over-shadowed by the telegenic Harris, and create an unwanted, internal contrast RE: white male privilege (since Sanders would be in the driver's seat), a leftist critique that could easily drive the news of the nascent union.
#9: Pete Buttegieg & Beto O'Rourke
Mayor Pete has the potential to enthuse multitudes, especially younger voters. So, a ticket with two younger, inspiring candidates makes some sense. But, without a woman or a person of color on the ticket, inexperience could get the better of our young heroes, once a disinformation campaign emerges.
#8: Pete Buttegieg & Kirsten Gillibrand
Here's the female presence Mayor Pete could conceivably entice into a joint pairing. But even with a female presence, a white bread ticket would have long odds.
Winners
#7: Kamala Harris & Beto O'Rourke
We're now getting into likely winning territory against Donald Trump. Both Harris and O'Rourke have the excitement in their delivery that can compel a high turnout. This pairing, however, seems the least likely of our success stories, mainly because of the inexperience that comes with untested new faces.
#6: Elizabeth Warren & Pete Buttegieg
Aside from the excitement for this combo among college educated whites, there's the question of whether people of color would turn out in numbers high enough to avoid the pattern of 2016, a lopsided popular vote win, coupled with a narrow call in the electoral college.
#5: Pete Buttegieg & Cory Booker
And here's the logical pairing that would give Mayor Pete his best chance at success. The oratorical firepower alone is remarkable. The down side is that the pair begins with a mere 5-10%, combined. The press, though, would likely make much of these two.
#4: Kamala Harris & Steve Bullock
Taking a different tack, Harris could appeal to the heartland with a farm state figure like Bullock. As the first woman president, the first Asian-American, and the first black woman president, she can be fairly sure of a high turnout on the left and with people of color. These two, however, might not bring enough polling power to make the necessary splash during the nomination contest.
#3: Elizabeth Warren & Cory Booker
Here we have what should be, on paper, a solid pairing. The downside for the Democrats, though, would be the likely loss of whatever Senate hopes they might have had. An urban, East coast pairing provides little coattails for down-ballot races in the heartland.
Winners!
#2: Kamala Harris & Pete Buttegieg
This is the kind of 'high ceiling' pairing that would get many Democrats excited, especially younger voters. Unfortunately, though, there could also be a fairly 'low floor', due to inexperience.
#1: Elizabeth Warren & Kamala Harris
Not only is our winning pair exciting for all demographics, but it begins with the highest percentage in the polls, something like 25%, so that Biden could be easily overtaken. And, running against the female-vote-challenged Donald Trump, a woman-woman pairing would likely focus, and thus defuse, the usual questions RE: female candidates.
...............
My own choice for the most likely candidate pairing--if one could choose from any Democratic candidates--would be Klobuchar & Harris. But, since the latter is unlikely to agree (Klobuchar is at a mere 0-3% in early state polls), especially when the much more popular Elizabeth Warren is available, this combination didn't make the list.
Update 8/13: I've gotten the most eyebrows raised over the notion that a woman-woman ticket would be the best bet in defeating the Trumper. My point: when it is women being bullied, the focus can be turned on the bully's history of mistreating women; when it is a female opponent being 'out-maneuvered', it can be seen by a credulous press as fair game.
Update 9/21: Harris' dramatic decline in recent polls has meant that this list is out-of-date. Perhaps I'll revisit the 2-candidate idea come November.
No comments:
Post a Comment