#242: September 12 Debate Advice
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Several weeks ago I proposed an 'outside-the box' scenario, whereby Biden dropped out of the race and instead invited each Democratic candidate to serve on a united, Team Blue. For example, Elizabeth Warren would be Treasury Secretary, Kamala Harris would be Attorney General, and Mayor Pete would be UN Ambassador. The campaign would continue, of course, and the winner would become the party's presidential nominee and be replaced on Team Blue by a non-candidate.
Obviously that's all out the window, since candidates are now thoroughly invested, each with many IOUs to fill. And even if Biden were to drop out, he wouldn't have the same pull that he did this Spring. So, here are actual imagined 'one liners' and the reasoning behind each, listed in reverse order of Blue sweetness.
#10: Andrew Yang: "A $24,000 UBI is the cushion that allows you and your partner to say "yes" to starting a small business."
Emphasizing $24,000 for a couple, rather than $12,000-a-year for one person, magnifies the effect that a UBI would have, reminds voters what a revolutionary course Yang is proposing, and appeals to everyone's inner artisan.
#9: Beto O'Rourke: "Some say I'm too aggressive, that I'm too animated, that I should wait my turn... (pause), just like they cautioned the young Jack Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, back in their day."
Youth, passion, and well..., it's hard to argue with that winning pattern.
#8: Julian Castro: "When my brother and I entered Stanford University in 1992, the most recent election had seen the state of California vote Republican for president; now, all these years later, the states of Texas and Arizona--a combined 49 electoral votes--are poised to say "enough"; if so, the red tide has indeed turned."
His numbers are hard to refute (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin = 46 electoral votes, compared to TX and AZ at 49); plus, "Stanford" reminds voters that Castro is elite.
#7: Bernie Sanders: "Some candidates like to beat around the bush. Well, you know what? I'd like to beat the damn patriarchy, and I'm not afraid to say it!"
The phrase "beat around the bush" suggests a reluctant, moderate fizzle. Plus, Sanders needs more female support, so the "patriarchy" reference.
#6: Pete Buttigeig: "If tomorrow is sunny, calm, and cool, with a hint of winter's fighting spirit, the last thing we want is an angry orange sun telling us our climate's going to change."
Mayor Pete's hope is that articulate speech, and a cool command of faculties, prove decisive.
#5: Kamala Harris: "I'm America's melting pot, personified; like, hey, I'm a Californian, but I'm moderate."
At this point Harris should embrace her reputation for being relatively moderate. There's no sense in battling Bernie and Warren for votes on the left.
#4: Cory Booker: "I was huddled with a supporter the other day who said her name was Dorothy, and she thought I was the perfect mix of heart, head and spirit on the winding road to Oz; (pause), I guess that means our current president is hiding behind a curtain of deceit, and we're all about to expose him."
Booker could use a midwest reference to counterbalance his urban credentials going into the Iowa caucuses.
#3: Joe Biden: "I'm like the guy who comes home from his job pounding iron, sits down to help his kids do their homework, and says to his wife "This is when my real job begins; this is the fun part."
All Biden needs is a straight-forward reference to hard work, wife and kids.
#2: Elizabeth Warren: "You know I'm a fighter, but unlike our current president, I know when to quit. Sorry, but if I'm elected, and once I'm President Trump's age, I'd step down. Then, in 2024, the person on this stage I intend to ask to be your next Vice President will, if all goes well, serve you through 2030."
Warren is 70, Trump is 73. What better way to question Trump's fitness, while also handing a subtle, wilted rose to her two main competitors, Bernie and Biden (77 and 76)? And, it steers attention to other, younger candidates, but as potential veeps, rather than challengers. This line also hints at whether she knows when to tone it down, which she'll likely want to do RE: healthcare.
#1: Amy Klobuchar: "A college student taking a selfie with me said that I, being slow and steady, was the turtle in this race, and that come Iowa, I'll saunter by, while all the tired hares will be napping by the side of the road. Maybe, but the only way that'll happen is if voters realize the Senate is where we as Democrats must win big, assuming our agenda (healthcare, climate, childcare, unions, and so on) wins the presidency. And a smart, cheerful, farm state vote-getter at the top of our ticket is probably our best bet in winning Red farm country's senate contests."
A spell-it-out strategy that promotes a non-threatening take-the-Senate focus is hard to get across in one line. But, with so many possible pick-ups in farm country (enough for the Democrats to conceivably get to 60!), Klobuchar is the steady female hand that could win it all. Here's the list of senate seats (in order, with the likeliest first); states having large rural populations *** are in bold: AZ, CO, ME, IA, NC, GA, TX, GA(2), MT, KS, SC, KY, AK, TN, SD, NE, MS, LA, AR, OK, ID, WV, WY. So, to get to 60, Blue would have to hold Alabama, and take 13, meaning that states like KY and AK would be on the bubble. Tough, but not impossible in a big wave election. Plus, even getting to 55 would allow for many more Blue success stories than would a mere 50-51.
*** large rural population defined as 66% urban or less.
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