The 'Exit Trump' Scenario

#256: If It Happens, It'll Likely Be Along These Lines
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On Quora, I posted this answer to the question:

Is it at all within the realm of possibility that enough Senators will grow a spine, defy McConnell and vote to convict? Perhaps Senators from purple states? What about retiring Senators?

Yes, though the percentage is probably 25% or less. Here’s the scenario:

  * The Democrats’ best chance is to have Bolton, and other independently-minded witnesses make dramatic appearances in the Senate trial.
  * Because Chief Justice Roberts will be the presiding officer at that trial, the Ds have no reason to drag things out (waiting for months for the Supreme Court to force Bolton and others to testify), since Roberts would be the likely swing vote in such cases, and his decisions at the trial will be final, as well (Will Bolton testify? Yes or no?).
  * And with Bolton et al providing the fireworks, there’s certainly a chance that public sentiment favoring impeachment will spike.
  * Next, as has been noted by John Richards in another answer to this question, there’s the possibility that 51 senators would want a secret ballot (for obvious reasons). If so (let’s say Mitt Romney, Susan Collins and Cory Gardner convince several retiring members to allow this, and join all Dems except Joe Manchin and Doug Jones) the result would be totally unpredictable—easily a 50/50 proposition.
  * Since Trump (sensing defeat) might want to get out before conviction, a voluntary retirement and Federal pardon by President Pence might even obviate the need for a secret ballot—which is arguably in iffy territory.
  * Considering how close to the vest senators would want to keep their hands, it might be that the public never hears about the above, but instead witnesses a White House departure for Mar a Largo in early January. No trial, no secret ballot controversy, just the hidden hand of Mitt Romney and associates letting McConnell know the jig is up. In fact, senators like Collins might want to hint darkly about her involvement, in the hopes of averting a loss next November.  Maybe Manchin would join her at a presser, making the point that he was on the other side, but that both sides were bi-partisan in make up.