#286: I Flesh Out My Proposal
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In an article appearing in the Atlantic magazine a week ago, prominent Washington think-tanker, Norm Ornstein, suggests that reforming the Senate filibuster could be as easy as flipping it from a requirement that 60 senators be present, and agree to end debate on a given matter, to a requisite 41 senators or more, present, voting to prolong debate. He believes that many older members wouldn't be able to maintain a presence (nearby, if not at their desks) for more than a day or so, making 41 senators effectively 42-44 or so, and the filibuster much less widely used (those conducting one would find it very time consuming), thus allowing congress to be productive again.
I've read much of the twitter chatter that accompanied his article, and found there were only two or three significant objections:
1. That any change could be undone in the future by the opposition party.
2. That the precedent for virtual Senate voting has been set (due to Covid) and may mean allowing members to vote from a distance in the future, defeating the intent of Ornstein's idea.
3. That we should simply "end the filibuster already".
All of which brings my own proposal to the fore: Eliminate the filibuster conditionally, based on Science. A scientific body giving a thumbs up to legislation combating Climate Change, for example, would reduce the necessary vote margin from 60 to 50. This of course assumes Democrats won't, in 2021, have 50 votes to abolish the filibuster altogether (2-3 Democratic senators have said the filibuster is too valuable a tool to jettison), meaning a conditional filibuster may be better than nothing.
My idea is based on the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) which, since 1974, has provided congress with a non-partisan analysis of what proposed legislation will cost. A similar entity, call it the Congressional Science Examiner, would sketch out the impact of proposed legislation, and indicate whether that legislation was based on the best scientific information available. If so, a thumbs up. If not, improvements could be suggested. Like the CBO, the CSE would employ non-partisan, professional scientists whose tenure would last through multiple administrations. And, as with the CBO, the CSE's director would be appointed by the heads of the relevant House and Senate committees (for example, the House committee on Science, Space and Technology and the Senate's committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, or some such mix), plus a mediator, who'd be an extra member from academia/a science lab, leading a given analysis team, and would be chosen by all qualified applicants voting amongst themselves.
As for Ornstein's 60-40 reversal, sure, I'm for it. It might even prove popular enough to be kept intact once the opposition party again controls the Senate. After all, the party on the outs when the reform occurred isn't likely to make it easier for obstructors once they take control.
The real need, however, will arise if the Senate is divided 51/49, 52/48, or 53/47 D/R in 2021. Even with Ornstein's flip, next to nothing would be accomplished legislatively, unless there were enough votes to simply eliminate the filibuster. If not, absolute gridlock, and a dangerous frustration. That's when the science-based, conditional filibuster would make the most sense.
As for the fate of a science-based panel once the opposition eventually recaptures control? Who can argue with the best science and not appear foolish and/or corrupt?
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January '21 Update:
With its two Georgia Senate wins, the Democrats have 50+1 control in that body. But, their 50th vote for Climate Change legislation (their least enthusiastic member), West Virginia's Sen. Joe Manchin, isn't a likely 'yes', since it would lead right into an accelerated end to coal as a major fuel (though, what about with remediation dollars flowing to West Virginia?) In any event, the more likely 50th vote would almost certainly be Mitt Romney (R - Utah) or Susan Collins (R - Maine), with perhaps both needed if another Democrat joined Manchin.
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