#295: Biden's Way
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Matthew Yglesias, writing in Vox (here), looks ahead to a Biden presidency, and sees a fight over a $15 minimum wage as a likely opening for getting congressional Republicans to act more responsibly. I summarize his points, below in black. My comments are in green.
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1. If Biden wins, he's certain to need a big stimulus to dig out of our medical / economic crisis.
2. The likeliest way forward is a big 'Reconciliation' bill that packages these Biden ideas:
- a universal child allowance
- expanding the Affordable Care Act
- investments in clean energy
- increased funding to low-income schools
"with short-term boosts to unemployment insurance and state/local budgets, plus some cash for public health interventions". These spending increases would then be offset by tax increases on the rich. And, the entire package would only require 50 votes.
3. Then, Biden can entice Republicans to cooperate across the aisle by focusing on raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour, since the issue is popular (about 2-to-1 public support).
4. Once he has cooperation, he can put forward other highly popular legislation that Republicans would also have a difficult time objecting to:
* the DREAM Act
* making sure the super rich pay their taxes
* a big infrastructure bill.
* automatic voter registration to make voting easy
* strict curbs on partisan gerrymandering
* marijuana legalization
* universal background checks
* a public option for generic pharmaceuticals
5. By holding off on losing ideas like drastically curtailing immigration enforcement, excessively broad student debt cancellation, reparations, or banning private health insurance, he'd be well on the way to re-election.
Yglesias makes a compelling case. It fits Biden's temperament (tough and bold within traditional boundaries), and is much likelier than a power grab that could easily fail (court packing, or abolishing the filibuster--justified though such actions may be).
There are a few weaknesses, however, to consider.
1. Climate Change can't wait.
2. It may take longer than expected to write a budget resolution (necessary for 'Reconciliation')
3. Republicans are unlikely to cooperate.
Climate Change Can't Wait
We may have ten years, max., before the earth's climate begins to spin out of control (as permafrost melts, it releases trapped methane, meaning more heat, then more methane...). We simply can't wait six months to a year for a cooperative Congress to emerge.
That's why this blog has proposed modifying the Senate filibuster, rather than the unlikely path of trying to abolish or ignore it. Instead, the Senate could decide. with a simple majority vote, that any legislation based on scientific consensus is not subject to the filibuster. How would this be done? My proposal is a government clearinghouse, like the CBO but run by scientists, that would assess legislation and render judgement in a timely manner. The specifics are of course secondary.
Would this fit with Biden's style? It's hard to argue that science shouldn't be front and center. Could Republicans successfully whip up opposition to the best Science? Unlikely.
It May Take Longer To Write A Budget
In his article, Yglesias' discusses how Republicans wrote legislation during the lame duck session when trying to abolish ObamaCare and enact their 2017 tax cuts. But Democrats are not as easily corralled. And Republicans care less about traditional norms, like the need to hold full hearings. Plus, why not both a big reconciliation bill and a science-based filibuster tweak?
Republicans Are Unlikely To Cooperate
Yglesias is right that a strategy beginning with popular legislation is the best way to tackle congressional disfunction. But he admits Republicans may still obstruct. By then, Biden's first 100 days could easily be over, and his honeymoon period too. Waiting too long could mean that curbing the filibuster becomes impossible.
On the whole, though, I think Yglesias has it right, save for that science-based-filibuster tweak.
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