#305: Hodgepodge: Politics
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Part 1: Is Biden Bumbling Already?
The short answer: 'no'. Anything Biden's likely to do, and anyone he's likely to appoint, will be many hundred times better than the shambolic mess of the past administration. Sure, there're possible missteps in appointing team members with ties to industries they'll oversee. But, like Obama's making peace with insurance companies before passing ObamaCare, it's often better to win, than to be perfect in winning. And then there's the Nixon-to-China concept: it's arguably easier to get powerful players, like defense and ag giants, to go along with reform if that reform is being carried out by people the big boys trust.
Part 2: Deliberate Pace Or Blitz?
As with most things, it'll be a combination. That's because long-term, taking the time to explain an issue means voters will understand, and be resistant to simplistic slogans. But, short-term, delivering on promises is what will solidify voter choice. And when the opposition party is determined to obstruct, the only answer is to blitz: plant as many seeds as possible, as quickly as possible, so any rats in the barn can't keep up.
As I wrote last month, the deliberate approach might involve 'must-see' spectacles on TV, with celebrities mixed with explanation. Like FDR's fireside chats, make people comfortable tuning in regularly (celebrities, jokes, music), but get an explanation across: this is the problem, this is why we're solving it this way. Aim for low-information voters. Then, link to in-depth reporting and analysis for those who're passionate about an issue.
I know I'd tune in.
The need for speed is best summed up by David Roberts at Vox. He makes the case that there's nothing to be gained from attempts at compromise, and everything to be gained by going 'all-in'.
A good combination of explanation and blitz might be the threatened use of an obscure constitutional power no president has ever invoked. Biden could explain to the American people that the country faces an emergency, and that he needs a team in place, right away. If Republicans in the Senate get in the way, he'll invoke his super-power. Hopefully, they'll see the light and act ASAP. Repeat this pattern for things like Climate Change ("...otherwise, I'll have to declare a state of emergency.") Meanwhile, promulgate dozens of lesser orders and actions.
Part 3: OK, Why Did Biden Win Big, and Dems Just Break Even?
This is in count-down form. The biggest factor is listed last. The first five (#s 10 through 6) all fall under Trump-vote-bigger-than-expected category which didn't overwhelm Biden's huge wave, but it meant down-ballot Republicans did better than expected. The last four (#s 4, 3, 2 and 1) were all used against Dems by their opponents.
10. Checks -- for low-information voters, a presidential signature on a check is a powerful statement. Those in need can't be expected to think beyond their plight.
9. Confidence Man -- for low-information voters, a candidate who is self-assured, quick to choose words, and care-free, is attractive. When combined with propaganda, the uglier effects of any misrepresentation and swindling can be hidden.
7. Free Media - for low-information voters who happen to be channel-surfing, a live broadcast of a presidential rally can be more effective than a half-dozen commercials. Ah, the old days, when an appearance meant 'equal time' for one's opponent.
6. Virus - for a candidate willing to risk additional infection and death, having volunteers go door-to-door--assuming one's opponent isn't taking the same steps--is a definite advantage. Biden did the right thing; Trump's team was careless.
5. Polls - for high-information independents, knowing that polls showed a blow-out for both Biden and most down-ballot Dems, the obvious response was to split one's ticket. It's also likely true that polling leading up to election day was under-representing Republican first-time voters.
4. Socialism - for certain demographic groups (Cuban-Americans, Venezuelan-Americans), this is a trigger word that spoils any Democratic outreach. Meanwhile, most hoping for 'Socialism' are thinking Sweden.
3. Pack-The-Court - for traditionalists, especially 'soft' Republicans, the idea of adding more Supreme Court judges confirms their suspicions that while Biden may be okay, splitting one's ticket is the obvious answer.
2. Defund-The-Police - for those who are in any way anxious about their safety, this is an obvious arrow in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, many looking for police reform feel they have no other choice but to get radical, as they feel they've tried everything else. Unfortunately, low-information voters decide most elections, and violence (often 'outsiders' ruining a peaceful march) can be turned into propaganda.
1. Propaganda - not just low-information voters, but those who choose to follow biased journalism never hear both sides of a story--let alone the truth, which is nearly always the opposite of what's broadcast on certain notorious media. Meanwhile, social media platforms have up to now done little to limit misinformation.
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Roll Call compares top-of-ticket voting with down-ballot, and shows that gerrymandering had a large role in the 'lack of coattails' effect. Our #6, Republicans campaigning in a pandemic, may have meant low-information voters on the Republican side were more familiar with down-ballot candidate names. It's also possible that low-information voters wanted Biden, but didn't have the time to vote any further (our #5, but for Dems).
Brian Stryker has a fairly convincing take: states with big Coronavirus caseloads saw bigger polling errors, pointing to a certain kind of voter more likely being at home to answer the phone: Biden voters who took Covid more seriously than did Trump voters. Stryker estimates that this accounts for 40% of 2020's polling error. So, the second half of our #5 should probably be our #1.
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