Are Vaccine Passports Inevitable?

#338: Answer: No.  But Here's How It Might Happen

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The BBC had an article on the world's busiest international airport, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in which the airport manager is quoted as saying that vaccine passports will eventually happen.

And this got me thinking: It doesn't seem likely, but could it be yet another ubiquitous app on our phones?

Beginning tomorrow, the UK is rolling out a digital version.  And, in this country, Hawaii and Oregon are looking into the possibility, while New York already has the Excelsior Pass.

Dozens of other states have passed laws against such passports, or their governor has indicated no interest in pursuing the matter.

Meaning it seems unlikely that the idea will catch on in places other than international airports, New York city (with its large performance spaces), and perhaps a few other, more exclusive or confined venues like upscale restaurants and cruise ships.

So, here's how, despite the odds, vaccine passports still might happen:

  *  Duration.  We don't yet know how long our immune system can go before a booster is needed.  If it's, say, six months, then the date of one's last shot complicates the 'yes/no' question.  Do we trust people to remember when six months are up?  What if the vaccine's effectiveness varies from one immune system to another, meaning some people can wait longer than others?

  *  Variants.  The experts advise us to treat all humans everywhere in the world as part of our collective family, simply because the virus will mutate.  Most of those mutations will be harmless, but the greater the timeframe the virus has to become more and more deadly, the greater the chances the thing will become deadly serious.  So, with deadlier variants advancing, the pressure may mount to quickly vaccinate those around the world, and in this country, who haven't already gotten their shot.

  *  Latency.  The virus will probably be with us for a long time.  Many of us, for example, have given it to our pets, where it can possibly remain, without causing the pet any problems, until our immunity wears off.  So, we may soon realize that a 'take no chances' approach makes sense.

  *  Effectiveness.  Anti-vaxers often question why the vaccinated population need worry over whether everybody else is vaccinated, since once vaccinated, they can't catch the virus.  But they can.  Though the odds are small, perhaps in 5% of exposures, the virus will win, and a relatively mild, though unpleasant, case will result. 

  *  Economics.  Places where "Don't Tread On Me" includes not having to get vaccinated, nor wear a mask, nor least of all have digital proof of conformity, may find their economic engines can't return to normal.  And, if businesses apply pressure, could the tide turn, and legislatures that had only recently passed bans on vaccine passports, find themselves having to admit that they'd made a mistake?

A fittingly ironic resolution to the vaccine passport question would be if areas of the country that lagged behind in vaccinations found that, by November 2022, a deadly new variant caused their citizens to avoid public interaction, including polling places, especially in rural areas with relatively low vaccination rates.  Meanwhile, vote-by-mail balloting would be possible, but had, a year earlier, been made much more difficult.

Of course 'herd immunity' is probably much more likely than is a long drawn-out pandemic.  That is, we, and eventually the world, will reach a vaccination level where the virus dies out for want of a sufficient number of un-vaccinated hosts.