Monday, May 31, 2021

Using The Vaccine Lottery Idea For other 'Nudges'

 #341: Other Lottery Ideas

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I've never bought a lottery ticket.  In fact, if it weren't for money going to a good cause, I'd want lotteries discouraged.  But what if it isn't the desperate minimum wage worker spending on that one-in-a-million chance, but instead, government monies (mainly from the rich) being used?  And what if the good causes are vital, like ending a pandemic?  I find I'm ok with that kind of lottery.  

The question I'm asking in this post is: what other examples of lotteries am I good with?  To answer, I'll list a few (black type) and my reaction (A through F grades in green type).

#1. Democracy. What's comparable to a vaccination campaign in importance?  Something that we can't really do without.  I've written before about an upgrade to our political system that would use voter input in making decisions.  It would involve our Representatives in Congress hiring a polling firm to take raw voter opinion for a given House district and feed it into a model.  The outcome would be fairly accurate public opinion on various important topics.  The holdup is of course getting enough voters to watch a random 5-minute video about an important issue, and then, respond to multiple-choice questions, indicating their opinion on the matter.  I've proposed a lottery that once a month pays ten lucky winners per congressional district $100,000 each for watching that video and answering questions.  That would be 12,000,000 x 436 House districts = 5.23 billion a year.  For $5 billion a year we could have a political system that worked.  Sure, our representatives could say they were 'focused on the bigger picture', and ignore their voters' opinions, but a much more likely reaction would be to tell lobbyists that, sorry, but they had to follow 'the will of the voters'.  I think it's a winning idea.  A

#2. Graduation.  It could be argued that raising education levels is the answer to much of what ails us, economically, socially, racially, and certainly politically.  So, why not give out large numbers of state college scholarships to those who graduate from high school?  To qualify for a drawing, students would have to be from a family with limited means and have averaged a B- or better, grade-wise.  Sure, if "Community College for All" isn't possible, this might be worthy.  A-  

#3. Crime Tips.  We're all familiar with the idea of a reward for information leading to an arrest.  What if the individual rewards in a given year were reduced enough that a city could afford to draw the name of one of those offering information, and that individual (who could request anonymity) received a much larger amount in addition to their first payout?  Let's say the initial rewards were  $5,000, but that each year $1,000.000 would be given away to one of the initial recipients?  Sure.  B+

#4. Suggestions.  Ok, so far we've ID-ed some pretty good uses for lotteries.  How about a local government holding an annual lottery that rewards good suggestions?  Anybody living in the city or county involved could turn in a suggestion.  A winner would be picked, and the mayor would introduce the winner to five pre-selected ideas from among those submitted.  The winner chooses one, and both the winner and the picked selection win a prize, say $1,000.  Is that a good way to better a community?  Sure, as long as the prize money is modest.  B

#5. Doctors Visits.  Here's another one that's nowhere near a sure thing.  Let's say a pilot study suggested that people who saw a doctor at least once a year were healthier than those who didn't, and that in the long run those with doctor visits cost state and federal governments less to care for.  So much less, that governments actually saved money by running a "Feel Like A Million" lottery, paying one of those visiting their doctor $1 million.  Sure, if everyone agrees it saves money. B-

#6. Good Deeds.  Let's end with a harder-to-judge case.  Let's say a town wanted to be known for being big-hearted.  The town's city council wanted to attract tourists with the slogan, "The Heart of the Midwest."  And, to generate publicity, they decided to conduct a "Heartland Lottery", that would see the doers of good deeds nominated by their fellow citizens.  Each month, three random nominations would be selected and three prizes would be awarded.  Maybe $1,000, $250 and $100, with the city council deciding who received which prize.  So, 1300 x 12 = $15,600 a year.  If I lived in that town, would I think this was a good use of taxpayer dollars?  I suppose that if voters din't like it, they could vote those who supported the idea out of office.  C+



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