Hard To Beat
Since this summer's political conventions, the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, has enjoyed something like a 4 - 8 point lead over the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, a pattern I think is likely to continue. And since I follow the electoral process fairly closely, I feel fairly confident in handicapping the election in extended detail. I'll use a scale of 1 - 10 with ten being best:
Gravitas
Clinton: 5 (knows when to be serious, when to be amused)
Trump: 4 (his 'serious' is almost always over-the-top)
Preparation
Clinton: 8 (fluent with positions, hedges where minefields threaten)
Trump: 4 (own intuition is risky strategy, but it conveys certainty)
Inspiration
Clinton: 5 (historical first will provide some lift)
Trump: 7 (if he were informed, with discretion, his charisma = huuge thing)
Surrogates
Clinton: 8 (Bill, Barack, Bernie, Biden, Elizabeth and Michelle)
Trump: 3 (Mike Pence, Ivanka, and... Chris Christie)
Finances
Clinton: 8 (she won't be denied)
Trump: 5 (he hasn't used his own money--perhaps a good move)
Organization
Clinton: 9 (using Obama's targeting approach)
Trump: 5 (setting expectations low, relying on rallies, free media)
Campaigning
Clinton: 3 (admits she's not particularly good at it)
Trump: 9 (his rallies energize the faithful, attract free media)
Debating
Clinton: 5 (experience and focus; but a hesitant, careful speaker)
Trump: 9 (being 'unprepared' just a fake to set low expectations)
Add 'em up and you have:
Clinton: 51
Trump: 46
plus,
Johnson: 3
Stein: <1
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