The Science In Political Science

The Quest To Know The Future

As much as it seems absurd to predict the future, there are those who can't resist.  This election season, American University professor Allan Lichtman and his 13 Keys To The White House, which have been curiously correct since 1984, foresee a Trump victory--although last month it was Clinton.

Here's what his prediction is based on (if six or more of these factors are false, the incumbent party will lose)

1 Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination

3 Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president

4 Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign

5 Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6 Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7 Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8 Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term

9 Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10 Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11 Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12 Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13 Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Blue numbers are those that Lichtman thinks point to Clinton.  Red point to Trump.  The incumbent party needs eight.

Except, ...this is awfully subjective.  Just for kicks, here are the keys that could easily turn the other way (depending on the election outcome):

1. (most likely): 4. Third Party.  Gary Johnson currently has around 9% in most polls.  Jill Stein has around 4%.  In order for these numbers to mean a red key, they have to be 5% or more on Nov. 7th.  That's a tall order, since most 3rd Party candidates lose their altitude as the election nears.

2.  7. Policy Change.  The problem here is how does one determine what constitutes "major national policy change".   Lowtechcyclist, a commenter on the Political Animal blog makes the point  that ObamaCare only took effect--with a falling uninsured rate--in 2014, meaning it was part of the incumbent party's most recent term.  Another point: most Americans know that Climate Change is a serious problem, perhaps the most serious one we face.  And who got the ball rolling, with executive orders on car mileage, emissions from power generation, etc.?  Obama, in his second term.

3. 1. Party Mandate.  Speaking of executive orders, there's the question of whether aggressive opposition to all Obama initiatives in Congress has meant that the natural flow of accomplishments can't be accurately gauged.   In fact, if one looks at the percent of the raw vote that the Democrats won, as opposed to the number of seats they held, they actually did better in 2014 than in 2010, which would turn key #1. 

4. 11.  Foreign Policy Success.  Again with Climate Change.  There's also the gradual drawdown of troops overseas, the rehabilitation of American standing in the world, even the Iran nuclear proliferation deal.

5. (least likely) 12. Incumbent Charisma.  If one looks at this from the perspective of voters who'll be eager to elect the first woman president, that may be something akin to charisma.  

In fairnesss, the professor has predicted the outcome ahead of time in each case, beginning in 1984.  I can remember reading his book in the late '80s. 

















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