Sunday, November 27, 2016

Assignment From Above: The Most Optimistic Case Possible For Blue

Pollyanna Delivers For The Democrats

As of late November, 2016:

1. The odds against a recount victory in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania?  Maybe 99%.

2. So, best case, realistic scenario, given Trump's our 45th president:

    a. the ruckus raised against Trumpish floundering, now, will turn into a huge, bellowing roar by 2018

    b. this'll sweep out the House, leaving Democrats with a way to stymie the worst of Republican instincts

    c. it'll also bring Democrats back into governors' mansions in states that are currently gerrymandered, setting up a more equitable drawing of House districts after the 2020 census

    d. the signature "You're fired!" line will be uttered repeatedly as Trump tries to right his ship of state, buffeted by the aforesaid Trumpish floundering

    e. since the President-elect started by appointing hard-line right-wingers, his firings will likely target the Neanderthal, astro-turf crowd, with future appointments being more competent middle-roaders

3. Contrast that with a Hillary Clinton presidency--still preferable mind you--that would've been severely constrained by a Republican House and Senate.  In fact, rather than drowning in a red tide in 2018 (the Senate class of 2012 being mainly blue), Democrats might be able to hold their most vulnerable seats, after all.

4. The optimistic case for 2017 and 2018, prior to the brakes being applied in November '18, would be for obvious ineptitude that did little damage to individual Americans: a sequence of petty blunders that generate so intense a brouhaha that even low information voters flee the wreckage.

5. Then, in 2020, the limp, unpopular president would take the Republican party down with him, as four years of disaster are left, curbside.  With House, Senate and presidency now blue, and re-districting having reversed most of the Republican advantage of 2010-2020, the Democratic party would be in fine fettle.

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