Predicting the Future: 1/23/19 --> 1/1/2020

I Peer Ahead
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Using a set of questions about our world a year hence published in Vox's Future Perfect newsletter recently, here are my answers, followed by Vox's percent likelihood, then mine.  Plus, I'll comment on each:

Trump still in office (90%) — 70%
It's hard to imagine the Republican senate voting for articles of impeachment, which is what it would take; but..., it's even harder to imagine another two years of what we've just been through.  So, I'll stick with my late summer '19 (August 21st to be exact) Trump exit guess from last year.

No clear Democratic frontrunner (with 50% being the frontrunner cut-off) (60%) — 85%
Here's my scenario (see primary calendar, here):
   * 3-4 candidates do well enough in Iowa to claim momentum
   * With Super Tuesday's primaries in California, N. Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Texas, (plus four smaller states) looming on March 3, February's primaries and caucuses in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will be overshadowed.
   * This means little-known hopefuls are doomed.  The big three-four will be:
       1. Sen. Elizabeth Warren
       2. Sen. Cory Booker
       3. Secretary Julian Castro
and possibly:
       4. Sen. Kamala Harris and/or Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
   * Other candidates will find themselves in somewhat less prominent positions and will soon be out
   * Key to this prediction is former Veep Joe Biden, and equally lovable Sen. Bernie Sanders deciding not to run (not to mention former Rep. Beto O'Rourke).

US will not enter recession (80) — 55
I don't think things will be anywhere near as bad as George Bush's end-of-term in 2008, but not all that different (recessions hurt); whether this occurs by next year or not is hard to say.

Congress: no full-length border wall (95) -- 95
With contraband and would-be immigrants hidden in trucks that simply drive through ports of entry, a border wall that can be tunneled under is not the solution that a sensible observer would settle on.  With logic against it, and migration on the decline, there's nearly no way it's going anywhere.

US homicides will decline (80) -- 85
As they have since lead was removed from gasoline (those who haven't heard this theory explained will be shocked; but, data do indeed point to lead being the cause of the world's several decades of high crime; try googling 'lead/crime theory').  The remaining 15%: the shadow of lead (a brain toxin, especially for babies) has now passed as babies poisoned decades ago are no longer struggling teens, 20- and 30-somethings, so we may returned to a 'normal' crime level now.

UK will leave EU (80) — 45
With a process unfolding, inertial drift will mean a crashing out.  But, that prospect should stiffen enough spines to generate a postponement or re-vote.  Will it?

Modi continues as Indian prime minister (60) — 50
I'll use 50% once, here.

Neither India nor China enters recession (70) — 75
Hard to believe they would, though in the case of China, state propaganda might be able to cover it up.

Malaria deaths decrease (80) — 85
Let's hope so.

No additional countries adopt UBI (90) — 95
Fine in theory, but a Universal Basic Income is expensive.

More animals killed for US human consumption (60) — 65
Unless a recession hits sooner rather than later.

Impossible Burger in at least one grocery chain (95) — 95
Looking forward to eating them on a regular basis.

Fully autonomous self-driving car not commercially available as taxis or for sale (90) — 85
There will be much more hype leading up to this possibility, when it happens, compared to what we're hearing now.

DeepMind release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain (50) — 55
We'd have to be a tech wizzards to know much about this.

Average world temps will increase (60) — 80
That remaining 20% is the chance that 2020 happens to be a year when there's a large volcanic eruption, or when temperatures happen to dip, temporarily.

Global carbon emissions increase (80) — 85
Though, the coming year may be the last for a rise in emissions if a world recession occurs--economies don't turn on a dime; especially since we have ignoramuses in charge in several countries.

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Hopefully I'll have a few right answers in among the guessing.  We'll see.