#205: Which Candidates Are Riskiest?
...................
The MidWest (specifically, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan) is likely to be where the 2020 election is won or lost. So, candidates should be speaking to voters in these states when they present themselves. This means some inspiration (see list, at end) to get out the base, but mainly it'll take a mainstream progressive approach that involves listening (cue the Sherrod Brown "dignity of work" focus) and political skill.
Things that are too disruptive, like Medicare-For-All (I explain why here), Reparations (the case against here), a Job Guarantee, or Legalized Sex Work, are almost certainly too ambitious--not that they're wrong.
What these 'rev up the engine' proposals represent, is the--usually male--tendency to focus on a future endgame, rather than the present.
The immediate present for 2020 is being pragmatic, smart and tough, like voters in the MidWest.
For the record, here are the 'traps', as I see them, most likely to trip up the Democratic field in 2020, ranked from least to most dangerous:
5: Free College Tuition. A good way to spend money, sure, but to the average voter, a radical idea; plus the price tag. And, if you look at who'd benefit, it wouldn't be voters over 50; same with those without children, plus those who can afford college, and those who aren't interested.
4: Job Guarantee. This isn't as dire a trap, due to greater enthusiasm among the base. But, though it may be where society is headed (robots taking over many jobs), it could easily be lampooned as government over-reach, and it triggers the worst emotion, politically: resentment ("they get free everything, and here I've got to work my tail off")
3: Reparations. No candidate, so far, is arguing for actual reparations. Instead, they're wanting recognition of historical wrongs, and calling for, at most, a gathering of experts to discuss the issue, and more often, government programs to help the less fortunate, including Black voters. So, this has shock value--that negative ads would exploit--but little upside, in the way of actual reparations.
2: Legalized Sex Work. This isn't #1 only because it wouldn't involve spending money. Sure, it may be a welcome idea in major cities where most voters are relatively hip, but it would immediately turn off a huge number of MidWesterners, especially those voters who are more traditionally religious.
1: Medicare-For-All. Here it's the price tag, and the disruption, and the industry opposition. Midwestern voters are much more likely to be for an incremental approach that has an affordable price tag. Asking those satisfied with their own coverage to give it up, and also pay a huge tax increase, just can't be countered with arguments over efficiency.
Any candidates promoting these ideas in the short term, beyond generalities, are in danger of losing. Luckily, I think Sen. Kamala Harris is a skillful politician and will benefit from the primary season, gradually walking back her most unlikely proposals, including legalizing sex work. Perhaps Bernie can too, though I rather doubt it, since Medicare-For-All is central to his candidacy.
And the presidential election in 2020 won't be held in isolation. There's the effect a pragmatic candidate, like Klobuchar, or idealistic candidate, like Sanders, would have on down-ballot races. Looking at the Senate, Democrats have to be competitive in: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina, all purple states, plus, hopefully Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Montana, Kansas and Texas, all red. A reasonable progressive, experienced with agricultural issues, and skilled at winning red and purple votes, is much more likely to do well. An idealistic progressive will likely turn out the base, but will be attacked mercilessly for any of the five traps, above, losing a much larger percentage of votes to fear-based attacks and us/them emotions.
Turning out the base, for Democrats, with appeals to idealistic, long-term answers runs the risk of an overwhelming win in the popular vote, coupled with a very possible loss in the electoral college.
.................
Here's that list referred to above (from a previous post) that I'd consider mainstream progressive, and non-threatening to voters in purple and red states:
5. Consolidate ObamaCare, adding a Public Option
4. Fund state-run Energy Conservation plans that hire millions
3. Create Tax Incentives to boost our five environmental ways forward
2. Significantly increase the Earned Income Tax Credit
1. Normalize Child Care For All
No comments:
Post a Comment