#210: We Take A Closer Look
.......................
We'll examine several factors, ranking them from least to most important. Our overall answer will be a combination platter, with surprising and profound implications for our future.
#6: Less sex, as 'getting it on' becomes a choice.
If sex is a duty, a male privilege, or in some other way decoupled from choice, regimentation means repetition, and thus more chance for conception. On a very basic level, choosing means two green lights are needed, rather than only one.
(Note: effective birth control arrived after a precipitous decline in the US birth rate.)
#5: Social norms that frown on 'singles' have disappeared.
In a village, say, with strong social conformity, even the most likely-to-be bachelors will be introduced to potential mates, usually with guidance from above. Meanwhile, in urban settings, social ties are weaker, and though individuals live in close proximity, the social integration that a more traditional village demands is missing. Decisions involving marriage and having children thus tend to be left up to the individual, which leads to many singles.
#4: Experience from a first child schools parents on just how much drudgery is required.
All babies cry; most parents experience sleeplessness. All children are immature; most parents will, occasionally, be at their wits end. Teens are inherently volatile; most parents, from time to time, feel overwhelmed. With the decline of social norms, the refrain is often 'enough of that....'
#3: We're an anthill writ large, and we can sense our world's advice: moderation.
Modern science tests for universal truths, but it has difficulty understanding the world's interconnectivity. Dreams, art, religious experience, even the natural world, can all clue us in to a necessary sustainability; that is, a doubling population over several decades will set off alarm bells. And the more educated we are, the more we hear about over-crowding, habitat destruction, unmet needs, and the conflict over scarce resources. Perhaps even the exposure to urban life itself tends to dissuade some.
#2: The financial costs that children represent are obvious and scary.
Not only does modernity require advanced parenting skills (humane treatment can otherwise lead to discipline problems), but parents must also be financially able. It's assumed that parents will express love for their offspring by buying them minimum comforts, and ideally maximum 'happiness'. The average cost in the US for years 0-18 is about $300,000, accounting for inflation. For a couple earning a combined $90,000 a year, that's about 15% of gross income. For a single parent earning a modest $40,000, a single child would eat up a shocking 30+%.
#1: Numbers don't lie; fewer people mean bigger slices of a common pie.
Sure, children are financial burdens, but...., there's more (actually, less). We intuitively learn that large families aren't as easily managed, and divided attention means less of it, as parents can't be in two places at once. Modernity has meant that we are individuals in addition to being members of groups. We know what adoring attention and specialized coaching can do for a child, because we've all been children.
And, in a broader context, we likely have a natural bias against adding more people. That's because further dividing land, for example, means less to support the wildlife we appreciate, less that's 'ours' to visit, and less to admire in its natural state. Why would we desire less of what's ours, all else being equal?
The answer, then, to our question, Why the birth rate decline for modern societies? is a combination of the above factors, each a little more important as one counts down.
And what's so surprising and profound in all this?
We usually read about the declining birth rate as it pertains to overall social balance (that link is to Trent MacNamara in the Atlantic). The argument is usually:
A. If we only have this many bread winners, who pays for all the retirees?
thus
B. We should be encouraging parents to have more children by increasing the Child Tax Credit.
Except that if our six factors, above, are correctly arranged, addressing '#2', alone, through the Child Tax Credit, won't make that much of a difference. $2,000 extra per year, for example, is only about $40,000, against that $300,000 per child 19-year burden. Given all the other factors, that isn't much of a difference.
Plus, there's a reason why we may not need additional workers. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robots have, since 1997 (link to a Kevin Drum post at Mother Jones) gradually replaced workers, especially in manufacturing. There's likely to be more of the same in the years ahead. If anything, we may have too many workers for the jobs available.
Another reason is prolonged life. Though average life expectancy has recently declined a bit here in the US, this is almost certainly due to income inequality and its depressing manifestations. In general, our lives have become longer and longer as miracle drugs treat ailments that in the past sent us to our graves. And though proponents of government initiatives to reverse the birth dearth think this makes their case, they are forgetting the many other factors on our list, above, including the sense that we as a species may be overextended.
So, if humans sense that their own species is too numerous, that we're degrading the world's environment as a result, and, besides...hey, we really don't want to have that many babies anyway, we really have only two ways forward:
*Live with it. We'll be fine. Spread wealth more evenly, remove impediments to success like racism, sexism, and lack of education, and we won't need as big a safety net. Promote strong ties with our friends abroad, make new friends, and we won't need as big a military. And, be frugal.
*Add younger immigrants who'll help balance the number of workers per retiree. This is the obvious answer. But currently, we don't encourage young people; we admit the parents of recent immigrants just as readily as we admit young refugees.
The overall mix of these two solutions is up for debate (here is David Frum in the Atlantic with advice about who we encourage to immigrate and why). The future is likely a fascinating combination. What's unlikely is for modern humans, on average, to want all that many kids.
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