#208: 2020 Will Be Eerily Similar To 2008
..................
It's only been twelve years since the economy was wobbly and heading for the tank; a sitting Republican president was widely viewed as one of the worst ever; and the Democrats were coming off a resounding victory in the House. Obama's rise successfully tapped into those circumstances.
In hindsight, the Obama candidacy brought several pluses to the 2008 primary season that might be instructive as we view the current field in circumstances not all that different from a dozen years ago.
We'll first list the pluses Obama brought to the table, then assign scores to our current field, seeing who comes closest to an Obama 'reincarnation'.
His pluses:
Barack Obama -- Score: 5.0
* Charisma -- especially when fresh and in good humor
* Comprehensive Issues Understanding -- he might lose some charisma, but he could go deep
* Youthful Athleticism -- I am fresh
* A Breaker Of Barriers -- enough of the white male monotony
* A Feel For Normalcy -- middle class, supportive, Midwestern
If we give each 2020 candidate one point for each 'plus' that's shared, and a fraction (between .1 and .9) for any that come close, we have, in alphabetical order:
Joe Biden 2.0
Charisma: .5 -- he's a gas when he's funny
Understanding: .4 -- he's best at simple messages, but all that experience
Youth: .1 -- he's old, but he's got a bounce in his step
Breaker: .1 -- he was Obama's pick
Normalcy: .9 -- he relates to the average Joe
Cory Booker 4.0
Charisma: .8 -- his enthusiasm runneth over
Understanding: .8 -- thoughtful, though occasionally off the mark
Youth: .9 -- he's four years older than Obama was
Breaker: .7 -- bad luck to be following Obama, but first modern, thoroughly urban president
Normalcy: .8 -- inner city, British education, Wall Street, but so personable
Pete Buttigieg 4.3
Charisma: .8 -- charming
Understanding: .5 -- (I am admittedly unsure here)
Youth: 1.0 -- the youngest contender
Breaker: 1.0 -- the first LGBTQ president
Normalcy: 1.0 -- hails from Indiana, served in military
Kamala Harris 4.2
Charisma: 1.0 -- she wows the crowd
Understanding: .8 -- just a few early errors
Youth: .8 -- dramatic flair
Breaker: 1.0 -- first female president
Normalcy: .6 -- grew up in Canada; but coastal framing
Amy Klobuchar 4.6
Charisma: 1.0 -- feminine charisma it is
Understanding: 1.0 -- knowledgeable, and careful
Youth: .6 -- though not young, she is vigorous, iron willed
Breaker: 1.0 -- first woman president
Normalcy: 1.0 -- middle America personified
Beto O'Rourke 3.8
Charisma: .9 -- a bit frenetic, but riveting
Understanding: .8 -- evolving; in the end could be 1.0
Youth: 1.0 -- Mr. Excitement
Breaker: .4 -- Hispanic nickname, speaks Spanish
Normalcy: .7 -- A younger version of the new normal?
Bernie Sanders 3.2
Charisma: 1.0 -- Takes no guff
Understanding: .7 -- Can be on the far side of the hill
Youth: .3 -- has the energy, but age is unavoidable
Breaker: .8 -- first Jewish president
Normalcy: .4 -- He supports the average working stiff
Elizabeth Warren 3.9
Charisma: .7 -- a female charisma that fights
Understanding: 1.0 -- Leading the way on various issues
Youth: .5 -- has the drive; looks younger than she is
Breaker: 1.0 -- first woman president
Normalcy: .7 -- MidWestern roots, but appeal is intellectual
(These are the top 8 candidates on Rolling Stones' Leader Board. We may update this list as the season unfolds.)
It perhaps goes without saying that the Obama model isn't everything. But it does help to see the candidates at 4.0 and above in a new light (Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Harris, and Booker), with Warren and O'Rourke easily within reach. And as the campaign unfolds, perhaps these numbers will change.
The other way to look at a list like this is to challenge a thumbs up for a candidate like Buttigieg. A mayor-ship of a mid-sized city is obviously unlikely when being considered for the presidency. So, there are obviously other factors in play.
No comments:
Post a Comment