#222: What If ... Redemption
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1. Because of as yet unknown factors (Congress censors president, economy stumbles, tariffs bite) the Republican party is marginally less popular in November 2020 than it is now, so that all the lucky breaks go Blue's way.
2. Both Bernie and Biden have faded, as age caught up with them (78, 79 on Inauguration Day); and in their place are the four candidates with the most endorsements: Booker, Harris, Klobuchar, and Warren.
3. Because the Dems' liberal wing is chock full of candidates (Harris, Warren, etc.), and those in the House--and those with even less experience--are seen as too untested, Klobuchar takes the center-left slot, picks another center-leftie, Booker, for veep, and wins.
4. Come the day after, her heartland manner is seen to have affected the many Red state Senate seats, increasing the Blue candidate's polling percentage by +5 points over Red (in the list below, Red is represented by our current president's May '19 popularity rating--that is the difference between Trump's rating and a particular state's political lean. Bold type = seat won by opponent:
Example: In Montana, Trump's positive/negative is -15, while the state is +18 Red, so 18-15 = +3 Red. With the Heartland Manner bonus, the result swings from +3 Red to +2 Blue.
Wyoming +28 (Red senator retiring = -3 points): red won by 20
West Virginia +20: red won by 15
Texas +3: blue won by 2
Tennessee +18 (red retiring = -3 points): red won by 10
South Carolina +10: red won by 5
South Dakota +10: red won by 5
Oklahoma +11: red won by 6
North Carolina -2: blue won by 7
Nebraska +4: blue won by 1
Montana +3: blue won by 2
Mississippi +19: red won by 14
Maine -15: blue won by 20
Louisiana +20: red won by 15
Kentucky +16: (red unpopular = -10) red won by 1
Kansas +2: (red retiring = -3) blue won by 6
Iowa -8: blue won by 13
Idaho +17: red won by 12
Georgia +3: blue won by 2
Colorado -13: blue won by 18
Arizona -7: blue won by 12
Arkansas +9: red won by 4
Alaska +1: blue won by 4
Alabama +27: red won by 22
That's 11 new Democrats, and 1 new Republican = a net 10 for Blue. Of course Maine, Colorado and Iowa aren't likely to be as overwhelmingly Blue. But Red's wins in Kentucky (1 point), Arkansas (4 points) and South Dakota (5 points) could be swept up in the bargain if everything breaks for Blue. And it goes without saying that candidate quality would account for ± 10 points.
Without Klobuchar's +5 bonus (if a standard East Coast liberal were the nominee), Blue barely loses Texas, Nebraska, Montana, Kansas, Georgia, and Alaska, with North Carolina teetering. So, instead of a net +10, it would be a 'safe' net +3, just barely reaching 50/50, with any one 'moderate' stalling progress.
The reason why Klobuchar is given a +5 'heartland' bonus is that she has honed her appeal to down-home, farm country throughout her Senate career, winning many Minnesota county that are red; so, unlike many others in the field, she speaks the language. If she amplifies her own populist message by accepting campaign help from Sherrod Brown, John Hickenlooper, Steve Bullock, and Elizabeth Warren, she'd be well on her way (here is background on the full-throated populist pitch). She could then hint at nominating Kamala Harris for Justice, Pete Buttigieg for UN Ambassador, Julian Castro for Homeland Security, Jay Inslee for EPA, Beto for Energy, Hickenlooper at SBA, Joe Biden for Defense, and Hillary Clinton at State.
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