#220: Ranking: Worst, Meh, Better, Best
................
The Democratic presidential primary field is crowded, and issue proposals are getting lost in the shuffle. Let's list and discuss them here, in descending order, from least helpful for Dems, to sure winners. Remember, they may all be good ideas, but will the average voter in Oshkosh, Wisconsin agree?
Harmful
20. Legalized Sex Work. Practically speaking, this may be smart policy, especially if one examines the evidence in countries that have experimented with alternatives. But for the average voter this is poison: the vast majority of socially conservatives, plus those sympathetic to feminism, see this and shudder uncontrollably. Kamala Harris walked back an off-the-cuff, ill-advised comment.
19. Voting Rights For Incarcerated Felons. In practical terms, recidivism can be curtailed if we include law-breakers in social normalization. But for the average voter this is the kind of bleeding heart liberalism they know they don't like. Bernie Sanders has stuck with his support for the long view, and his recent downturn in the polls can possibly be partly to blame.
18. Reparations. The reason the reparations issue has garnered support from the likes of Julian Castro and Elizabeth Warren is that unlike the above two ideas, it would have a relatively large and inspired constituency behind it (Warren has--rightly--included Native Americans). Though the idea has an obvious logic to it (check out average incomes for Blacks and Whites, for a start), there's almost certainly a net loss of votes at stake.
No-Gain
17. Foreign Affairs. This is perhaps the most surprising item on our list. What's wrong with talking about the failures of the current president, like North Korea and Iran? Because all candidates (except possibly Joe Biden) will seem like newcomers on the stage. Perhaps for this reason, there's been very little policy proposed in this area. That's just as well, as nearly every foreign policy concern can be reduced to a simplistic, conservative fear of otherness. And in a world where terrorism threatens, fear is a potent weapon.
16. Immigration. We're beginning to move away from topics that are sure losers. Immigration itself would be much lower on our list, but in our time, immigration means our current president's obsession with undocumented immigration, including asylum seekers. For places like Wisconsin, focusing on immigration is likely a toss-up, in terms of gaining votes. There's shocking mistreatment of desperate families, the historical blessings of past immigration, the sympathy-inducing human stories. But, on the other hand, there's the simplistic us/them construct, the illegality element, and the inevitability of migration pressures increasing (population growth, climate chaos) that together will almost certainly be used to fan the flames of fear and anger. Nevertheless, most candidates have been sympathetic to the arguments for displaying a greater humanity, especially Julian Castro and Beto O'Rourke.
15. Reproductive Rights. At first glance, we can say that a majority of voters support abortion rights. And the argument that furthering contraception access will in turn limit abortion is obvious, and a good way to frame the issue. But aside from the tone of argument, there's not much room for gaining votes, especially in mixed liberal / conservative areas of the country like Wisconsin. All major candidates are supportive, though Kirsten Gillibrand has suggested abortion would be a litmus test for her if she were to appoint Supreme Court justices.
14. Gun Control. Unlike previous elections, there's now a near-consensus that something needs to be done, with young voters pressing the issue. Unfortunately, due to the political imbalances inherent in our system, places like Wisconsin and Iowa are likely tipping points in the election, and gun control, outside of urban areas, is a neutral issue at best, with equally numerous supporters on each side. A state-by-state live-and-let-live approach to the issue is probably the most likely. Cory Booker has a comprehensive policy proposal. Would it sell in Wisconsin, outside Milwaukee?
Upside
13. Drug Policy. The momentum to overturn harsh drug sentencing, free non-violent drug offenders, and allow states to follow different paths on drug enforcement is gathering steam. Treating opioid addiction, for example, as a disease instead of a punishable offense is also trending. These are welcome reversals of outdated, bad policy, but will they garner votes, compared to the inevitable stirring of fear on the other side? A particularly attractive approach to remediation is Amy Klobuchar's bi-partisan clemency board plan that would see non-violent offenders released from federal detention, thanks to a president's say-so after a speedy one-step screening process.
12. Addressing Income Inequality. Perhaps the most exciting idea out there is Cory Booker's Baby Bonds: set aside nest eggs for each child born into poverty (a poverty gradient is used to allocate less to those born into somewhat better off households). This would allow Americans to honestly believe that ours is the land of opportunity. There are numerous other permutations, including Kamala Harris' housing assistance. Booker's, though, has an endearing quality (we all love innocent babies). Though it could be close, Baby Bonds are probably a net vote winner, especially if the cost is modest enough.
11. Trade. Sending the ag economy into a tailspin, as our current president has done, is probably the worst own-goal one can imagine, since states like Iowa and Wisconsin are on the line. But there are good arguments on both sides. Many populist candidates, including those from the Rust Belt, denounce NAFTA, China, and the outsourcing of jobs. On the other side are those who understand that trade has boosted economies, especially in coastal, export-dependent states. Campaigning against harmful tariffs would seem logical, until one realizes that trade is yet another us/them issue easily demagogued by desperate politicians reliant on the fear factor. Sherrod Brown, a candidate who has since dropped out, was an ardent proponent of the anti-trade position.
10. Universal Basic Income. UBI is the idea that everyone gets, say $1,000 a year. On the campaign trail UBI has been associated with Andrew Yang. UBI gets everyone's instinctive "Hey, $$$$ for me!" vote, before we think twice: Where's the money coming from? And how much would a UBI cost? It's easy to figure out: 327 million x $1,000 = 327 billion (Yang advocates twelve times that). That's when the instinctive vote becomes a 'Gee that's expensive; sure nice, but unaffordable.' Of course, if not everyone gets the $1,000, and it accumulates into a nest egg over time, it's then more affordable, and we have #12 (above).
9. Increasing the EITC. The Earned Income Tax Credit is an excellent way to combine politics with income assistance. Those who work are generally deemed worthy, while those unwilling to work are harder to assist, simply because there's resistance to aiding anyone who isn't at least appearing to try to make a living. So, the EITC usually wins out...when funding is available.
8. Higher Teacher Salaries. Kamala Harris recently proposed toping off teacher salaries (a $3 Fed match for every $1 state dollar) to make up for the difference between what teachers earn and what similar professionals are paid. Because teachers are active politically, unionized, and often cherished, this could be smart policy, even if the chance of enactment is minimal.
7. $15-an-Hour Minimum Wage. Nearly every major candidate supports $15 an hour--a benchmark that several states have enacted using varying timetables. If pegged to inflation, the minimum wage would of course be much higher than it is now.
6. Infrastructure. Construction means something sweet for nearly everyone. Unions, private contractors, and suppliers see dollar signs. Most voters see improved facilities and an easier life. Include building retrofits, energy system upgrades, public transportation overhauls, etc., and we're half-way to a Green New Deal.
5. College Financing. Most college financial assistance plans belong in the 'No-Gain' category, as so few benefit, and if you're heading to college, you're likely to be well enough off. But, crafted intelligently, a college financing plan can appeal to a large enough voter segment to constitute a large net gain, vote-wise. I have in mind Amy Klobuchar's Free Community College plan, something that several states and localities have experimented with. The reason it 'wins': the middle class (literally, the middle achievers in a high school graduating class) would be most likely to benefit. Most upper class students (and the poor who've done well academically) either don't need the government's help, win scholarships (including Pell Grants), or are otherwise on their way to a 4-year institution.
Winners
4. Voting Rights. Voting for our favorite candidate is something we take for granted, so ensuring that we all can vote, and safeguarding the practice itself is relatively hum-drum. Then comes vote-by-mail; not only is it so much more convenient (one picks and chooses the time to fill out and send in one's ballot, rather than having to wait in line for who knows how long), but it's free (no postage required) and is already the norm in some states (Oregon, Colorado). Ranked Choice voting (used in Maine), statehood for Washington D.C. / Puerto Rico, paper ballots (to allow recounts), cyber-security, and federal oversight of minority empowerment are all issues that are important, and have their own constituencies (for example, third party voters love Ranked Choice, and approximately 1 million Puerto Rican-Americans live in Florida). Most candidates are behind a recent House bill promoting these matters.
3. Busting Up Monopolies. This is key to a seeming impossibility: locking up states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus putting Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina in play. The common link here is agriculture. Rather than focus on just trade (Trump's tariffs), highlighting the corporate monopolies that exist in the farm sector can be a killer issue. As Amy Klobuchar noted in her recent town hall on Fox, there's an epidemic of farmer suicides, due mainly to families being squeezed from both sellers of input, and buyers of output. When a farmer can't choose between competitors, there's no hope. This was the genesis of American Populism, back in the 19th century, and there is no better metaphor for describing why monopolies are destructive than farmers killing themselves. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, John Hickenlooper, and other populists have been outspoken on this issue.
2. Climate Change. Young people tend to vote Democratic, if they vote. Generating hope and enthusiasm is key, and fighting Climate Change is probably the best way forward. It pits youthful vigor against the stale, head-in-the-sand denialism of old, greedy bumblers. All 2020 candidates have supported one strategy or another, with Jay Inslee having the most detailed, informed plan, and Beto O'Rourke offering his version. Advice: to avoid fear-mongering, forget about a carbon tax, for now, and instead advocate world-wide, country-by-country reductions in defense spending to pay for needed initiatives. This also avoids the inevitable complaint that other countries won't be doing their fair share.
1. Health Care. Republicans have made such an obvious mess of health care policy that one has to shake one's head in awe at their stupidity. With such an easy case to make, Dems have only one potential problem: if the conversation somehow changes from pre-existing conditions (the horror stories are endless) to the forced end of private insurance--given Medicare-For-All (tens of millions would then be susceptible to fear mongering). As everyone knows by now, Bernie Sanders has been a big advocate of Medicare For All, and many other candidates have signed on, with several back-tracking recently. The case for incremental, non-threatening change, building on ObamaCare, with an added Public Option (buy-in to Medicaid or Medicare for those who want it) is overwhelming. By the end of the year, expect nearly all remaining candidates (exception for Bernie and Co.) to accept the winning hand that the fickle finger of fate has dealt them.
....................
Update: 5/14/19:
I've been reminded that this list misses one big issue sure to factor in 2020:
Trump Corruption -- I grow weary just contemplating the myriad wrong-headedness. Take just one example: Putting former corporate insiders in charge of our government's oversight of their former colleagues. It's laughably ridiculous, ...until one realizes how utterly serious the situation has become. Infants are in danger from a toxic chemical? Bring in an industry insider who quashes any regulation that might protect children. If that isn't enough evidence of unworthiness, I don't know what is.
Update: 5/18/19:
Recent news of Red state over-reach on abortion (no exceptions, timelines that are absurd) likely moves #15 up a half-dozen or so notches.
No comments:
Post a Comment