I 'Advise' A Dark-Horse Candidate For President

#231: What It Takes To Win 2020
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Step #1: I pick the likeliest candidate.

Step #2: I rationalize that candidate's major campaign moves, to date.

Step #3: I list three messages to get across in order to 'win' this week's debate.

The Likeliest Candidate
All eyes will be on the second debate, when Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris battle it out [...screech...].  Except no, those are the also-rans, the past-their-bedtime heroes of yesteryear, and the up-and-coming new faces at their first rodeo.

Actually, the first debate, featuring Senators Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar is where the more serious candidates will compete.  And among these three, Klobuchar provides Democrats with their most likely vehicle, with Warren a close second.  Why?

The choice is obvious, once one looks closely, because only Klobuchar has likely coattails in rural, more Republican parts of the country, while Warren and Booker come across as more urban and liberal.  In the Democratic primary, this broader approach is not an asset, but in a general election, this is the key to success.  Why?  Because of the need for a comfortable margin in the Senate, where, as fate would have it, states like Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Kansas, and Kentucky are where the action is.   A Warren or Booker blow-out in the presidential election that leaves most of the above states with Republican senators is only asking for gridlock.  Whereas, a few more senate seats is the difference between getting little done and a working majority (probably, this would be 52+ senators, allowing for a defection or two, now and then).

And the surprise is that Klobuchar only seems to be a more conservative candidate.  If one examines the 137 actions she'd take in her first 100 days, they match up nicely with Warren's more detailed, and somewhat more aggressive 'I've got a plan for that' approach.

I Rationalize Klobucar's Campaign, To Date
Her campaign kickoff: outdoors with snow in hair.
Makes her look tough, able to tackle anything.
Her big issue: infrastructure.
Makes her seem aggressive (large price tag), but appealing to everyday, quality-of-life concerns.
Her early struggles (accused of mistreating staff).
Kept expectations low, enabled 'underdog' breakout scenario.  And, charges are disputed, and relatively minor, allowing for redemption.
A grab-bag of 137 actions to take in first 100 days.
Criticized as unfocused, they reassure party activists without providing opponents with specifics to grip and gripe.

I List Three Messages To Win Debate
"Remove the Senate Filibuster for science-backed legislation."  ***
"Because of dealing with my father's alcoholism, I'm uniquely qualified to tangle with Trump.
"If we want to win in places like Wisconsin and Iowa, we have to speak 'farm country'.  I do."

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*** Set up panels of mainstream scientific experts to weigh in on legislation that addresses science.  For example, the climate fight.  Allows science-based legislation with no filibuster possible.  A majority vote is all that's needed to set up said panels.