#275: Experts' Odds Are 45% / 35% / 20%
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I've already suggested that Biden could put his VP choice up for a vote. But recently, I saw a poll that identifies Elizabeth Warren as the clear first pick for Democratic voters, which suggests that if Warren weren't Biden's favored choice, he wouldn't agree to such a vote.
So, let's re-examine our choices and see where Biden could conceivably be looking.
Of course vetting must occur, and that could take months, with who knows what turning up. And since we won't have any of that information, this will be big picture only, but I'll touch all bases.
Kamala Harris -- 45% chance
If one reads the expert opinion (here) and (here), it looks like Harris is the one.
Pluses include racial diversity and relative youth; negatives are a disappointing primary campaign, as well as geography--California already being in the Blue column.
Amy Klobuchar -- 35% chance
Those same expert opinions both have Klobuchar as the second-most likely.
Pluses include geography (the Midwest is must-win) and her appeal to purple/Red voters; negatives are a reputation for moderation, and an all-White ticket.
Someone Else -- 20% chance
Our experts (above links) have a short list of other possibilities, which we won't all examine here, except to say that Elizabeth Warren would claim some of that 20% (along with former Georgia governor candidate Stacey Abrams, and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer).
Pluses for Warren include a strong primary campaign, including her crushing takedown of Mike Bloomberg; negatives are her age (70), her Senate seat (a possible Republican pick up), and her strong, some would say strident, views--not what a VP is usually known for.
Who should Biden pick? If I'm right that the 2020 election will be all about the Senate (see my previous post making that case), here are the relevant numbers: the president's favorable opinion percentage, minus unfavorable, in states with 2020 senate contests (as of 3/31/20):
Maine: -21
Colorado: -16
Arizona: -8
Iowa: -3
North Carolina: -2
Georgia (x2): -1
Texas: +2
Montana: +5
South Carolina: +7
Mississippi: +7
Nebraska: +7
Kansas: +8
Alaska: +9
Alabama: +15
Tennessee: +16
Kentucky: +22
[Note: The argument for a senate focus is that a healthy majority in that body would allow for a successful presidency--otherwise gridlock and failure].
What the above numbers indicate is that Biden could head in two different directions:
A. Inspiring the faithful
B. Appealing to Red and Purple voters
The first possibility would probably mean Harris (or possibly Warren), while the second would almost certainly mean Klobuchar.
Harris would arguably bring out the potential Democratic vote in traditionally Blue and Purple states; Klobuchar in traditionally Purple and Red. And where are those senate contests? According to World Population Review, 1 is Blue (Maine), 4 are Purple (Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Colorado) and 12 are Red. Which points, rather obviously, to Biden picking Klobuchar.
Ah, but what if the presidential race were close? What if Biden needed enthusiastic turnout in big cities like Detroit and Philly, and felt he couldn't take a chance on a large senate majority? After all, the most easily won senate seats, it would seem, are either Purple or Blue (Maine, Colorado, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina). So, if Biden decides to forget about the big win, he can all but write off the ten senate contests in Texas, Montana, etc, and instead hope for unexpected wins in Georgia (2). All of which points to Harris.
Which way will he go? A lot may depend on the vetting process. There's also the mood of the country in the weeks prior to his decision. A devastated economy, voters rallying 'round the flag, and everyone on edge, may mean a more careful approach that turns out just enough sure votes in urban areas to win. Or, maybe such an anxious national mood would call for a less dynamic pick that would be easier for middle-of-the-road--and low-information--voters to swallow.
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