#345: The Long Run: Pain Now, Gain Later
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I was looking at my Twitter feed (that is, my political list) this morning and was struck by how many people were admonishing "the Democrats", and "Schumer" to get on with it, and that any delay in getting bills passed in the Senate was going to doom the Democrats and our country. Most of these messages were comments attached to a pundit's making the same point. Well, if there's that much confusion out there as to what's going on, I'll go ahead and play Devil's Advocate, and present the Joe Manchin case for bi-partisanship.
First, be forewarned that I don't think this is the best way forward. It is simply reality, for now (let's hope wiser heads prevail); something we all have to live with. But, in six paragraphs, I'll make it sound as reasonable as I can.
* The key to a Democratic success story is the Senate. That's because of three things:
1. There are more small, rural, conservative, and therefore Republican states than there are big, urban, progressive Democratic states. So Republicans have a huge built-in Senate advantage. Sure, Dems have disadvantages in the House (urban concentration, gerrymandering), and the Presidency (the Electoral College), but the Senate is the worst of the three, as the Electoral College is only a mild version of the Senate's imbalance.
2. Democrats missed winning two arguably winnable senate seats in 2020: in Maine and North Carolina. Those seats are off the table--barring unlikely events--for Democrats until 2026, giving Republicans an even greater head start. So, between the House and the Senate, long term, the former is the easier lift.
3. Furthermore, the Senate is where Supreme Court nominees are confirmed, making it crucial to reversing that body's recent, uncalled for conservative tilt (Dems have won the popular vote in all but two of the past nine Presidential elections, but Rs have been behind seven of the eleven Supreme Court justices successfully nominated during that time).
* A Democratic Senator from a rural state is an absolute treasure. Sen. Joe Manchin's West Virginia seat, and to a degree, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's Arizona seat, in the long run, are more important than any other political considerations. If one does the math, there are 7 Western, 3 Midwest, and 10 Eastern states where Dems should win Senate contests (in the West: HI, CA, OR, WA, NV, NM, CO; in the MidWest: MN, IL and MI; and in the East: VA, MD, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME). That's 20 states and 40 seats--not nearly enough to get lucky and make it to 50+.
There are also six states in which both sides are about evenly matched: AZ, WI, NH, PA, NC and GA. In these states, Dems have eight to the Rs four.
There's also one Dem senator each in MT and OH, plus Manchin in WV (Dems would be in a big hole without these three); Republicans have one senator in ME. For the Dems that's 39 + 8 + 3 = 50.
* Outside of their strongholds, Dems have just three seats that look possible in '22 (WI, PA and NC). They are also defending three seats in those six 'toss-up' states (AZ, NH and GA). This leaves little if any margin for error. Manchin's and Sinema's seats are crucial for future success.
* Keeping those senate seats in WV and AZ is doable. The key is letting the two quasi-Dems appear as bi-partisan and unattached to the Democratic party as they feel they need to be, while voting with the Dems nearly all the time. For Manchin, this is a tall order, but if anyone can do it, he's the one. This explains his behavior, and also why President Biden treats him gingerly.
The likeliest vehicle for keeping those two seats Blue is the Infrastructure bill. That's because, if we assume that Manchin can't allow anything truly progressive to pass before '22, Infrastructure will serve as the perfect foil against Republicans in that year's congressional races, likely allowing Democrats to hold on to both the House and Senate. The ads just write themselves:
"Republicans filibustered the Infrastructure bill. They want rich corporations to pay no taxes. Potholes, blackouts, and now they say "no" to good paying construction jobs. Don't let it happen again next year, vote for ..."
* Adding another two Dems to the Senate in '22 would complete the puzzle. With a strong campaign message, hammered home again and again (local infrastructure projects, current and future), Dems would likely add 2-3 Senate seats, and Sinema and Manchin could maintain their bi-partisan, defend-the-filibuster credentials with no deleterious effect. Meanwhile, progress is being made, with Biden able to enact parts of his agenda through Reconciliation (the once-a-year spending bill that doesn't require any more than 50 votes). And, Supreme Court nominations are possible, since Republicans wouldn't control the Senate.
* With Biden able to get things done, 2024's election occurs during an economic boom. Rather than a Republican-controlled Senate putting the brakes on the economy and preventing Supreme Court nominations, the Dems pass what amounts to economic stimulus (infrastructure, and probably much more), as the 2024 Presidential election nears. The former president, who currently wants a rematch, may find that if he doesn't want to lose twice, his window of opportunity has shut.
Q: But what about voting restrictions being imposed by Republicans in many states like Arizona, Georgia and Texas? A: What will overpower those attempts at voter suppression most effectively is an overwhelming turnout that makes the outcome so lopsided that any attempts to cast doubt or tamper with the results will seem laughably obvious. Running a campaign on corporate tax cheats/local construction/good paying jobs is perfect for every congressional district, and would be very hard to beat.
Q: And what about pressing issues like Climate Change? Can we really wait another 18 months as the world burns? A: That is a question for Sen. Manchin.
Q: But wouldn't there be terrible humiliation for Biden if the Senate denies him his Infrastructure bill? A: "Temporarily, some, but a filibuster would come first, meaning the actual vote in 2021 would never occur (he would use Reconciliation in '23). Biden simply says "Let the voters decide." and the 2022 campaign begins. This is likely to be seen as a trap by Republicans. But what do they do? Give Biden a win on Infrastructure, or give him a win in the 2022 elections. That dilemma is the reason why Biden doesn't feel rushed. He wins either way. The problem for Republicans is that the ideas they fall in line behind are unpopular.
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