The Most Likely Ways Around The Senate Filibuster

 #344: I Rank The Six Most Probable Paths

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We all know how the threat of the Senate filibuster is being deployed to keep President Biden from passing his agenda, and how two Democrats have said they won't kill the thing, or even tone it down.  

And yet, there's a small chance that somehow the logjam breaks.  Here are six possibilities, from least to most likely:

#6: Our Former President's Conduct Drives 12 Republicans To Biden Legislation.  Judging from his efforts on January 6th to egg on his supporters, we know that #45 is desperate to change reality.  If he tries something equally outrageous, the dam might not hold.  But if Republicans went along with covering up January 6th, why change now?  Very unlikely.

#5: Biden Proposes A Trade (Each Side Gets Legislation) that Republicans Like.  What if Biden agrees to give Republicans something they want in return for passing Infrastructure, let's say.  Trouble is, Republicans are defined by what they don't want.  Unlikely.  

#4: A Republican Senator Dies.   Several states have Democratic governors and Republican senators.  But there aren't many, and state law doesn't always allow an appointee to be from a different party.  Unlikely.

#3: Reluctant Democrats Agree To 'Adjustments'.  This scenario involves the two Democratic holdouts.  Due to Republican bad faith, or for whatever reason, these two have made a big point of saying 'no' until... they say 'yes'--probably on something popular, like Infrastructure.  We're getting closer to a likely scenario here.  Possible.

#2: Bipartisanship Takes Everyone By Surprise.  Here, the likely vehicle is the Infrastructure bill currently being negotiated.  Whether because they've boxed themselves into a corner ("Can we really say 'no' to corporations paying no taxes!") or, because bringing home the bacon is what politics is all about, or because, in hindsight, they don't want to be seen as holding up Climate legislation, Republicans agree to a compromise, and promise not to use the filibuster.  Possible.

#1: Voters Increase Democrat's Senate Majority By At Least Two.  Here, we're talking another 18 months of inaction, then finally, voters have their say and replace 2-3 Republican senators.  In that event, what would be the Democrats' secret to success?  They campaigned on a minimum corporate tax of 15%, using that money for infrastructure, and so bringing badly needed jobs to all areas.  Frankly, I can't think of a more likely way to enthuse voters.  Quite possible.

Update: 1/1/2024:

Well, it turned out to be the two "possible" options (#2 and #3) instead of #1.  Good thing, as Republicans took the House in '22, while the Democrats only added one Senate seat.