Every Day A Winner

 #365: Walking Away --> Sometimes Key To Success

............

I admire people who don't need life to turn out one way or another.  They wake up in the morning and navigate a best way forward, no matter what disappointments occur.  And, if thwarted, they simply recalculate based on their new reality.  This may involve resistance, or it may be time to move on.

A person who doesn't need a certain outcome in life, doesn't need to control reality.  Instead, the twists and turns of fate can be scanned for opportunity, and sometimes what at first seems like a second-best outcome, or alternate course, becomes an unforeseen windfall.  On the other hand, it's usually the case that disappointments in life send one down what are obviously secondary paths.  But even then, it's better to accept reality, and be grateful as one counts one's blessings.  That's because, if things aren't going to get any better, why not turn one's full attention to making the best of it--that is, aiming for every day a winner?

Which is how I feel about President Biden's agenda getting through Congress.  If it succeeds, that's a win. If it doesn't, that could possibly, in the end, be a second-best result, though still getting quite close to an ideal outcome.

Here's the rundown, as I see it, covering the main characters, their outlook, and a bottom line for each.  

President Biden: He'll take whatever deal he can get, including a trade with SineManchin that sees, at minimum, several programs (Child Care, Paid Leave, Free Community College, Pre-K For All Kids, extended Child Tax Credit, Medicaid for non-Participant States, ObamaCare Patches, Climate, Medicare Expansion) in exchange for passing the Bi-Partisan Infrastructure bill that SineManchin are eager to see become law. 

Joe Manchin: To win his senate seat in 2024 (at age 77), he wants to take a stand against government largesse.  He likes the Infrastructure spending, and might accept several programs as listed above, but in general, the less the better.  How much of his strategy is a pose that he can abandon?  We don't know.  My guess is that it's all for real; he won't budge--very much.

Kyrsten Sinema: Arizona is a relatively conservative 'purple' state with a lot of well-off retirees.  Sinema, much to the irritation of most Democrats, is trying to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters, and hoping she can get past any primary opponent when she runs for re-election in 2024 (at age 48).  She has scuttled Democratic party plans to tax the rich and corporations, along with a plan to sock it to the big pharmaceutical companies.  In general, like Manchin, she believes less is better and seems to be hoping nothing passes, save for the Infrastructure bill she helped shepherd through Congress.  Will she compromise, once she's established herself as a conservative Democrat?  I'm guessing she's willing to give up a little bit, but only as long as she's seen as a throttler.

Bernie Sanders: Sanders, and the other progressives in Congress, want the entire $3.5 billion over ten years, if not more.  They're likely to wait until the last possible moment to see if the other side blinks.  Then they'll accept a deal that's at least $1.5 trillion or more, over ten years, but nothing less.

In all cases, the likeliest timeline involves a November agreement, if there is one.  This is because the US would like to pressure other countries to pledge generously to the fight against Climate Change at the upcoming UN conference in Glasgow, Scotland, occurring Oct. 31 through November 12.

Even if the Biden Agenda passes with little to show, Climate-wise, there will be government action to announce at the conference.  The EPA's Michael Regan has rules for methane emissions, as well as energy production, if Congress fails to act.  But, ideally, the start of the conference would see an agreement announced based on the relatively ambitious Biden agenda. 

What might the second-best outcome be?  Unless SineManchin are bluffing, and desperately want their Bi-Partisan Infrastructure bill, signing the two bills will likely leave out quite a few component parts.  But, this would allow Democratic candidates to campaign on those extras. Democrats could say: "All we need are another two senators, and everything's doable, including...XYZ".  The focus would be on the specific programs, themselves--many very popular--rather than on the 'deal' that's unfolding and how much it would cost.

Could SineManchin be bluffing?  It's not likely, but certainly possible.  This would be a very well kept secret: that both senators told Biden when negotiations began that they needed to drag out the negativity, but that as long as they're seen as nay-sayers, they'll eventually say they wanted the Infrastructure bill too badly to hold out, and all or most of the 3.5T will pass.  Somewhat more likely is that nothing is passed, and much more likely that a small portion makes it through the wringer.   

What's the likelihood that Democrats keep the House and add two senate seats?  Most experts would say that this is very unlikely.  But, there are several things working in the other direction (as I explained in an earlier post):

* Biden's predecessor has been acting erratically, and could easily become too old for his role as party boss.  Plus, he has a record of making everything about him.  So, if his favored candidate is beaten by another Republican in a state primary, he may refuse to endorse the victor, ruining that candidate's chances.  Likewise, he may pick a flawed candidate, and that candidate wins his primary, but ruins the party's chances in the general.

* Covid could be on the way out.  If it is, or is for the most part, the nation's mood could improve dramatically.

* The economy could take off.  Despite Covid's Delta variant, the threat of inflation, and supply chain problems, the economy has been chugging along.  The most likely to disappear is inflation.  Most higher-level economists point to recent inflation pressures as being temporary.

* Anti-Vax fever among some Republican politicians is almost certainly a loser.  It is hard to believe there aren't Republican advisers trying to kill what is a bug-eyed 'painting yourself into a corner' position if there ever was one (the percent of voters who are vaccinated against Covid is probably close to 75% and the percent vaccination against Measles, etc., is nearly 100%).

What about a "We don't need this" approach from Bernie and the progressives?  Could it work?  In other words, if progressive Democrats refuse to pass the Infrastructure bill without the full $3.5 trillion over ten years also passing, would SineManchin blink?  Most political pundits would say it wouldn't work, since Biden himself has said the total price would likely be lower.  But who knows?  The power of "I don't need this." is often underrated.  And if Biden and SinaManchin had made a wink-and-nod deal in advance, it'd be the perfect thing for Biden to say "It'll be less." to erase any footprints (the deal where SineManchin act out, before changing their tune at the last minute).  And if you think about it, running for re-election on a popular platform, with very popular pay-fors (taxing the rich and corporations) isn't a bad consolation prize for the progressives.

It might even make for a winner of a day--but not until November 8th '22.

My point, though, is always aim to win the day, and that starts with being grateful, no matter what.