Greening the Sinai Peninsula

 #369: Would It Work?

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If you haven't heard about the amazing idea that a near-desert, the Sinai peninsula, could possibly become a healthy, productive landscape of farms, grassland, and forest, you are in for a real treat.

My introduction came via the David Byrne newsletter, Reasons To Be Cheerful, which I heartily recommend.  I then googled the subject and picked the Guardian link (above, first paragraph), which involves additional detail.

The gist, for those who don't feel like a 5-10 minute read, is that using the dredged sediments from the bottom of a large lake along the Mediterranean coast, the washed-away soil of a good deal of the peninsula can be returned, while at the same time, fog-nets in the mountains will catch moisture.  Most importantly, though, hundreds of greenhouses equipped with vats of life-breeding organisms will hop-scotch around the peninsula, generating greenery, then moving on to the next location.  After decades of hard work, the moisture in the air, flowing from the Mediterranean, will begin to fall as rain, thanks to the more moist local air.  

What's even more exciting is the possibility that a greened Sinai peninsula will act to funnel rain to the east, south and west (I assume Jordan, Upper Egypt, Saudi and Yemen) almost all of which is barren and unproductive.  This would allow what is now mostly wasteland to support some of the excess population found in the region, and hopefully avoid water-related conflict and other sources of tension.

The good news is that re-greening a vast area has happened before, in the loess hills of China, described in both articles linked to above.

The possible bad news (my own opinion) involves at least three hurdles that the project will encounter:

* Political.  The Chinese government didn't have to deal with an Islamist insurgency that has made the northern Sinai a no-go zone over the past decade. 

* Financial.  The Chinese government in the 1990s, though they had help from the World Bank, were able to dedicate hundreds of millions of dollars to the project.  The Egyptian government, by way of comparison, has somewhat less control of its economy; that is, fewer resources to work with.  And, they'll be paying for a European company to do the dredging, while the Chinese relied on local farmers who were likely paid very little.

* Cultural.  The Chinese banned tree cutting and grazing when implementing their project.  Can the Bedouin, plus Egyptian locals in the northern Sinai be expected to refrain from grazing?  

Hopefully the Islamists will fade away if the re-greening project attracts enough investment to create sufficient jobs and economic progress.  Probably the most important variable will be whether re-greening is seen as a local project, or an effort engineered by outsiders who have the Egyptian government to enforce their plans.

To sum up, the science involved is probably less problematic than is the execution.  At least the re-greening project, if it takes shape, will be seeking to work with nature, rather than against it.