#360: Will These Events Happen? Possibly.
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Predicting the future isn't easy, but we can imagine the future based on possible events, and be fairly sure--if those events are significant--about where they might lead.
So, let's explore ten events, ranked according to the certainty they'd mean a Democratic victory in the 2022 midterms. #10 is the least likely, #1 the most:
#10: Democrats attract 'mirror' candidates for congressional districts in which the Republican candidate is heavily favored. Mirror candidates promise to reflect constituent opinion, rather than to offer their own. They run as 'outsiders', bringing sanity to Washington. The idea is to peel off enough independents to deprive the traditional Republican candidate of a sure win. Candidates would reflect constituent opinion by holding town halls, commissioning polls, and setting up online feedback mechanisms, then voting accordingly. Direct democracy's lure in the tech age might be hard for the independent-minded to resist.
#9: Afghanistan fades from the headlines, and instead of periodic reminders of tragic death and destruction, the realization that we removed ourselves from an endless war gains the upper hand. Ideally, the Taliban would have immediate difficulties governing and have to rein in their worst tendencies in order to secure international investment. Or, even better, their autocracy collapses due to intransigence, incompetence and recession-induced infighting, leading to elections and an internationally recognized unity government.
#8: Iowa senator Chuck Grassley dies, aged 89, just weeks before his 2022 election contest. Iowa Republican party leadership, controlled by Trump loyalists, selects a replacement nominee who is unprepared for prime time. He makes several gaffes, and fumbles softball questions from Fox News hosts. The Democratic candidate draws enough independent voter support to squeak through to victory, preserving a 50-50 Senate.
#7: The various voter-suppression efforts at the state level (Texas, for example) have the perverse effect of egging on marginal Democratic voters, who want to vote based on some of the other items on this list. This reverse psychology also energizes the organizers tasked with getting out the vote.
#6: The Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus becomes increasingly confined to areas of the country where vaccination rates are lowest. These areas correspond to regions where Republican voters constitute a clear majority. With a death rate differential (deaths in Red areas minus those in Blue areas) averaging perhaps 500 a day, for a year, there'd be something like a hundred thousand fewer Republican votes by election day. In a few close races (perhaps Georgia's senate contest), that could be the difference.
#5: Our 45th president suffers extreme embarrassment as New York state's investigation into the Trump Corporation uncovers massive tax evasion and insider coddling. Add in his other looming, legal headaches and the publicity is sure to register with 2022 voters. Will his hand-picked governor, senate and house candidates want him on stage, campaigning with them? But of course.
#4: During his two years out of office, come 2022, our previous president has kept up his high fat, high cholesterol, low fiber diet. His legal predicaments cause intense stress. This eventually catches up with him. Hobbled by a heart condition, stroke, or other ailment, he's a shadow of his pre-presidential self and unwilling to expose his weakness in a public attempt to fire up the Republican base. The party is rudderless just when it needs a shot in the arm.
#3: The vaccination rate nears something approaching 'herd immunity' in most metro and suburban areas. Cases, hospitalizations and deaths plummet as the virus is confined to areas of low vaccination. This stark contrast highlights the shocking Republican embrace of anti-vax sentiment in states like Florida. Even greater numbers of suburban voters choose their Democratic candidate, joined by a small but significant number in rural areas.
#2: The repeated federal spending on the pandemic, coupled with the Biden agenda's stimulus effect, means the economy is in line for a dynamic growth rate last seen in the 1990s. Suddenly, the main pillar of Republican attacks on the Democratic agenda crumbles, bringing down Republican hopes for retaking the House and Senate.
#1: Because of his intense need for adoration and, in turn, control over others, our previous president has managed to lower the chance of success for Republicans in a number of key races. Instead of strong conservative candidates able to appeal to independents, his weight is instead behind toadying yes-men, each with a bumbler's single-minded resolve: to make the boss look good. This only brings upset defeats to the fore.
I'm leaving out Inflation, Abortion and Climate, as they're either ambiguous (inflation), inflame passions on both sides (abortion), or are likely more of the same (climate).
A recent article by Matt Cooper in the Washington Monthly makes the case that the 10-year $3.5 billion Build Back Better bill now before Congress (free Community College, free Child Care, Paid Leave, extended Child Tax Credit, expansion of Medicare, and a big first step on Climate Change among other things) isn't necessary for a Democratic victory in the midterms. And neither is the 10-year $1 billion bi-partisan Infrastructure bill. Three possible outcomes, RE: the Biden Agenda, as I see them, ranked least to most likely to assist Democrats in 2022:
#3: The Infrastructure bill passes; the Build Back Better bill does not. We should remember that, on its way to the Senate, Republicans in the House, egged on by the former president, voted against the bi-partisan infrastructure bill, a wildly popular spending plan, just to deny Biden a win. Votes against were also being readied as of last week. In '22, faced with opponents who remind voters of this shameful, heedless selfishness, what's a loyal, Trumpified Congressman to say?
#2: Neither bill passes. As Cooper points out, this allows for an aggressive Democratic message in 2022.
#1: The Two Bills, Linked, Pass Together. Even if the price tag is brought down significantly, the 'win' would be contagious.
According to this informative tweet, the specific $$ amounts (in billions), over ten years, for several likely items in the Build Back Better bill are:
Child Care and Pre-K: $465
Paid Leave: $450
Climate: $625
Free Community College: $120
IRS Funding $80
Total: $1.74 trillion, almost exactly half the original Biden plan. This, or a similar scaled-back version would presumably receive the blessing of Democratic hold-out senators, given the following tweaks:
* Allow fossil fuel sequestration to count toward renewable energy (once that proposed technology has been proven reliable).
* Make the first two items means-tested (if you're rich enough you don't need them), which would bring the total down to the 1.5 T maximum identified by one key senator. Note: few rich kids would be going to community college.
* Task the IRS with providing taxpayers all they need to file a digital return. Make it an easy few minutes online for the vast majority of filers. This would surely be very popular, and help congress swallow the 'increased enforcement' pill--also very popular.
Paying for the above would be a handful of items selected from the right-hand side of the linked tweet, above.
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10/13 Update: Ed Kilgore, in New York magazine, suggests that Democrats hold off on the very popular Medicare expansion plank in the Biden agenda, and save that for a reconciliation bill in 2022. This would mean that just when voters were making up their minds about who to vote for during the summer and fall of 2022, they'd be reminded that Democrats were voting to include vision, hearing and dental care benefits in Medicare. If this were ranked in the above list, I would place it somewhere between #3 and #5.
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