I Said I'd Write About Three Things
.....................
Here we have the three topics I said I'd write about, and links to those articles:
1. TR (Teddy Roosevelt) 110 years later. Busting monopolies, experiencing Nature, and admitting he was wrong about Imperialism. Link
This is my political philosophy, which includes novel ideas like:
*encouraging a do-it-yourself, creative economy, operating alongside a super-efficient, decentralized corporate marketplace.
* hooking up voters with online decision-making
* shielding workers from our future's robot-based automation by enabling creative, low-profit small businesses
2. Rock Music, Revisited. I look back at my Mighty 55 rankings, and make adjustments.
This will likely be done every year. My very own garden of sound that I maintain. Link
3. Election Boardgame Trilogy.
My brother's and my 2016 boardgame design.
Thought it was finalized, and here, a year later, we're still finding improvements. Next up is 2012, then 2020, with game complexity declining as we go. Link
Thursday, January 31, 2019
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Is Mindfulness Worth Looking Into?
Is Describing It Even Possible?
Using a shortened list of questions (link) meant to test your mindfulness levels, I'll describe what it is (for me), and why it's so hard to get one's head around:
Do you...?
1. Experience emotion and not be conscious of it until later.
2. Spill things because you're thinking of something else.
3. Walk quickly, without paying attention to experiences along the way.
4. Not notice physical tension/discomfort until they grab your attention.
5. Forget a name almost as soon as you've been told it.
6. Run on automatic.
7. Listen to someone with one ear, do something else.
8. Drive places on 'automatic pilot', then wonder why you went there.
9. Find yourself preoccupied with future/past.
10. Snack without being aware that you're eating.
Except for #3 and #6 (walking past ugliness; automatically doing repetitive tasks), plus #9 ( preoccupations have their time in the sun, too), this gets at 'mindful'.
What's perhaps more interesting are the ways one can increase one's engagement:
* Self: One word: "why". Any time something doesn't feel right, ask yourself 'why'. Think about it, then let it go. Just pausing to ask 'why' every once in a while will eventually get you focused.
* Other: Watch TV while eating. Feed yourself every time you're enjoying what's going on. While chewing, ask yourself: "why do I like this?" This'll help coordinate eating with intent.
* Dating: When you have the chance, focus on the day of the year. Why's it special? Does it make you want to plan your dinner? talk to someone? read? dance? watch TV? There's a time for everything.
* Religion: If you need direction, most religions have ways of focusing on key questions, like meditation or prayer.
But, what is it? Simple; mindfulness is getting started on what makes you ask 'why'.
Using a shortened list of questions (link) meant to test your mindfulness levels, I'll describe what it is (for me), and why it's so hard to get one's head around:
Do you...?
1. Experience emotion and not be conscious of it until later.
2. Spill things because you're thinking of something else.
3. Walk quickly, without paying attention to experiences along the way.
4. Not notice physical tension/discomfort until they grab your attention.
5. Forget a name almost as soon as you've been told it.
6. Run on automatic.
7. Listen to someone with one ear, do something else.
8. Drive places on 'automatic pilot', then wonder why you went there.
9. Find yourself preoccupied with future/past.
10. Snack without being aware that you're eating.
Except for #3 and #6 (walking past ugliness; automatically doing repetitive tasks), plus #9 ( preoccupations have their time in the sun, too), this gets at 'mindful'.
What's perhaps more interesting are the ways one can increase one's engagement:
* Self: One word: "why". Any time something doesn't feel right, ask yourself 'why'. Think about it, then let it go. Just pausing to ask 'why' every once in a while will eventually get you focused.
* Other: Watch TV while eating. Feed yourself every time you're enjoying what's going on. While chewing, ask yourself: "why do I like this?" This'll help coordinate eating with intent.
* Dating: When you have the chance, focus on the day of the year. Why's it special? Does it make you want to plan your dinner? talk to someone? read? dance? watch TV? There's a time for everything.
* Religion: If you need direction, most religions have ways of focusing on key questions, like meditation or prayer.
But, what is it? Simple; mindfulness is getting started on what makes you ask 'why'.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Predicting the Future: 1/23/19 --> 1/1/2020
I Peer Ahead
.................
Using a set of questions about our world a year hence published in Vox's Future Perfect newsletter recently, here are my answers, followed by Vox's percent likelihood, then mine. Plus, I'll comment on each:
Trump still in office (90%) — 70%
It's hard to imagine the Republican senate voting for articles of impeachment, which is what it would take; but..., it's even harder to imagine another two years of what we've just been through. So, I'll stick with my late summer '19 (August 21st to be exact) Trump exit guess from last year.
No clear Democratic frontrunner (with 50% being the frontrunner cut-off) (60%) — 85%
Here's my scenario (see primary calendar, here):
* 3-4 candidates do well enough in Iowa to claim momentum
* With Super Tuesday's primaries in California, N. Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Texas, (plus four smaller states) looming on March 3, February's primaries and caucuses in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will be overshadowed.
* This means little-known hopefuls are doomed. The big three-four will be:
1. Sen. Elizabeth Warren
2. Sen. Cory Booker
3. Secretary Julian Castro
and possibly:
4. Sen. Kamala Harris and/or Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
* Other candidates will find themselves in somewhat less prominent positions and will soon be out
* Key to this prediction is former Veep Joe Biden, and equally lovable Sen. Bernie Sanders deciding not to run (not to mention former Rep. Beto O'Rourke).
US will not enter recession (80) — 55
I don't think things will be anywhere near as bad as George Bush's end-of-term in 2008, but not all that different (recessions hurt); whether this occurs by next year or not is hard to say.
Congress: no full-length border wall (95) -- 95
With contraband and would-be immigrants hidden in trucks that simply drive through ports of entry, a border wall that can be tunneled under is not the solution that a sensible observer would settle on. With logic against it, and migration on the decline, there's nearly no way it's going anywhere.
US homicides will decline (80) -- 85
As they have since lead was removed from gasoline (those who haven't heard this theory explained will be shocked; but, data do indeed point to lead being the cause of the world's several decades of high crime; try googling 'lead/crime theory'). The remaining 15%: the shadow of lead (a brain toxin, especially for babies) has now passed as babies poisoned decades ago are no longer struggling teens, 20- and 30-somethings, so we may returned to a 'normal' crime level now.
UK will leave EU (80) — 45
With a process unfolding, inertial drift will mean a crashing out. But, that prospect should stiffen enough spines to generate a postponement or re-vote. Will it?
Modi continues as Indian prime minister (60) — 50
I'll use 50% once, here.
Neither India nor China enters recession (70) — 75
Hard to believe they would, though in the case of China, state propaganda might be able to cover it up.
Malaria deaths decrease (80) — 85
Let's hope so.
No additional countries adopt UBI (90) — 95
Fine in theory, but a Universal Basic Income is expensive.
More animals killed for US human consumption (60) — 65
Unless a recession hits sooner rather than later.
Impossible Burger in at least one grocery chain (95) — 95
Looking forward to eating them on a regular basis.
Fully autonomous self-driving car not commercially available as taxis or for sale (90) — 85
There will be much more hype leading up to this possibility, when it happens, compared to what we're hearing now.
DeepMind release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain (50) — 55
We'd have to be a tech wizzards to know much about this.
Average world temps will increase (60) — 80
That remaining 20% is the chance that 2020 happens to be a year when there's a large volcanic eruption, or when temperatures happen to dip, temporarily.
Global carbon emissions increase (80) — 85
Though, the coming year may be the last for a rise in emissions if a world recession occurs--economies don't turn on a dime; especially since we have ignoramuses in charge in several countries.
...........
Hopefully I'll have a few right answers in among the guessing. We'll see.
.................
Using a set of questions about our world a year hence published in Vox's Future Perfect newsletter recently, here are my answers, followed by Vox's percent likelihood, then mine. Plus, I'll comment on each:
Trump still in office (90%) — 70%
It's hard to imagine the Republican senate voting for articles of impeachment, which is what it would take; but..., it's even harder to imagine another two years of what we've just been through. So, I'll stick with my late summer '19 (August 21st to be exact) Trump exit guess from last year.
No clear Democratic frontrunner (with 50% being the frontrunner cut-off) (60%) — 85%
Here's my scenario (see primary calendar, here):
* 3-4 candidates do well enough in Iowa to claim momentum
* With Super Tuesday's primaries in California, N. Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Texas, (plus four smaller states) looming on March 3, February's primaries and caucuses in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will be overshadowed.
* This means little-known hopefuls are doomed. The big three-four will be:
1. Sen. Elizabeth Warren
2. Sen. Cory Booker
3. Secretary Julian Castro
and possibly:
4. Sen. Kamala Harris and/or Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
* Other candidates will find themselves in somewhat less prominent positions and will soon be out
* Key to this prediction is former Veep Joe Biden, and equally lovable Sen. Bernie Sanders deciding not to run (not to mention former Rep. Beto O'Rourke).
US will not enter recession (80) — 55
I don't think things will be anywhere near as bad as George Bush's end-of-term in 2008, but not all that different (recessions hurt); whether this occurs by next year or not is hard to say.
Congress: no full-length border wall (95) -- 95
With contraband and would-be immigrants hidden in trucks that simply drive through ports of entry, a border wall that can be tunneled under is not the solution that a sensible observer would settle on. With logic against it, and migration on the decline, there's nearly no way it's going anywhere.
US homicides will decline (80) -- 85
As they have since lead was removed from gasoline (those who haven't heard this theory explained will be shocked; but, data do indeed point to lead being the cause of the world's several decades of high crime; try googling 'lead/crime theory'). The remaining 15%: the shadow of lead (a brain toxin, especially for babies) has now passed as babies poisoned decades ago are no longer struggling teens, 20- and 30-somethings, so we may returned to a 'normal' crime level now.
UK will leave EU (80) — 45
With a process unfolding, inertial drift will mean a crashing out. But, that prospect should stiffen enough spines to generate a postponement or re-vote. Will it?
Modi continues as Indian prime minister (60) — 50
I'll use 50% once, here.
Neither India nor China enters recession (70) — 75
Hard to believe they would, though in the case of China, state propaganda might be able to cover it up.
Malaria deaths decrease (80) — 85
Let's hope so.
No additional countries adopt UBI (90) — 95
Fine in theory, but a Universal Basic Income is expensive.
More animals killed for US human consumption (60) — 65
Unless a recession hits sooner rather than later.
Impossible Burger in at least one grocery chain (95) — 95
Looking forward to eating them on a regular basis.
Fully autonomous self-driving car not commercially available as taxis or for sale (90) — 85
There will be much more hype leading up to this possibility, when it happens, compared to what we're hearing now.
DeepMind release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain (50) — 55
We'd have to be a tech wizzards to know much about this.
Average world temps will increase (60) — 80
That remaining 20% is the chance that 2020 happens to be a year when there's a large volcanic eruption, or when temperatures happen to dip, temporarily.
Global carbon emissions increase (80) — 85
Though, the coming year may be the last for a rise in emissions if a world recession occurs--economies don't turn on a dime; especially since we have ignoramuses in charge in several countries.
...........
Hopefully I'll have a few right answers in among the guessing. We'll see.
Monday, January 21, 2019
A One-Line Wonder
Web Wisdom
..................
Ever save something off the internet, then wonder where it came from?
Here's something I saved, and now can't recall when, where, and who wrote it:
"Human interactions ought to be celebrated instead of intentionally (& artificially) replicated."
I tried googling, but nothing came up.
So, here's a brief reaction:
*Do I know what this means? I think we're comparing organic with inorganic.
*Is this deep? If I'm right, then yes.
*Perhaps an example would help:
A: Organic:
I meet someone unexpectedly; we smile, chat, continue on our way.
B: Inorganic:
I then scheme, such that I will try to capture the moment and enjoy it more: I sacrifice my daily schedule to try to meet the person again, on a subsequent day. And when I do so, I can't remember the line I had planned to use to reference our previous encounter.
..................
Ever save something off the internet, then wonder where it came from?
Here's something I saved, and now can't recall when, where, and who wrote it:
"Human interactions ought to be celebrated instead of intentionally (& artificially) replicated."
I tried googling, but nothing came up.
So, here's a brief reaction:
*Do I know what this means? I think we're comparing organic with inorganic.
*Is this deep? If I'm right, then yes.
*Perhaps an example would help:
A: Organic:
I meet someone unexpectedly; we smile, chat, continue on our way.
B: Inorganic:
I then scheme, such that I will try to capture the moment and enjoy it more: I sacrifice my daily schedule to try to meet the person again, on a subsequent day. And when I do so, I can't remember the line I had planned to use to reference our previous encounter.
Most Popular Recent Posts
What You're Reading
..........................Here's a countdown, #10 to #1, each with a link and date published:
#10: What if Fighting Climate Change Were Easy? (link) (12/16/18)
An example of how our battle may be easier than we think.
#9: The 2020 Dems.: Who Should Drop Out (link) (12/23/18)
I use Rolling Stone's leaderboard to rank the candidates on who should get gone.
#8: Democratic Presidential Candidates, 2020 (link) (7/4/18)
The case for running as a Blue Team. I later refine this idea by suggesting just three candidate form a pact (link). I further refine this (see #9, above).
#7: Bailing On Things (link) (10/14/17)
What I've given up recently, or scaled way back on.
#6: Is Nine Supreme Court Justices A Number Set In Stone? (link) (7/21/18)
I suggest a way for the court to be made whole after the arguably stolen seats of recent years. I then update that idea with Fixing Our Democracy: The Supreme Court (link) (10/1/18)
#5: President Barack Obama: A-, B+ or Lower? (link) (3/12/17)
His accomplishments, and his grade.
#4: Feel Like A Million (link) (1/7/17)
If Trump had been really smart, he could've done this to improve ObamaCare (written before his inauguration).
#3: More Advice For Trump: Afghanistan (link) (5/20/17)
The case for getting out, and instead paying Afghan forces salaries high enough to make joining the taliban the poorer choice (and it would cost us less).
#2: Hiding In Plain Sight (link) (12/16/18)
Populism (FDR's pro-labor, keeping-corporate-greed-in-check, philosophy is making a comeback; Elizabeth Warren being the messenger).
And, the #1 most read post on this website over the past two years is...
#1: The $50 billion Radical Idea That Just Might Work (link) (8/1/18)
This is my answer to the country's three original sins (Native dispossession, Slavery, and unequal representation--in the Senate and Electoral College).
Sure, some readers may have been keyed in by the titles (#10, for example; but then, what about #7? Perhaps that's because #7 is personal, not political). Anyway, this countdown simply gives the reader a top-ten for further exploration, should you find the first steps on the hike worth your while.
Friday, January 18, 2019
Making A 'Green New Deal' Hard To Resist
What We Want; How We Proceed
......................
As a rule, the easier way is usually the one we'll take; the path of least resistance. For the Green New Deal, recently popularized by Climate Change activists, the easiest path is not necessarily the best. If we fail to stop global warming, we lose. But if we're too ambitious, and we lose politically we also fail.
So, here's a 3-point plan (easily understood), that'd be fairly easy to pass (politically winnable), that also has within it the seed for limiting warming to a maximum 1.5 degrees (necessary):
1. Return To The Obama 'Normal'. This means that by 2021, with the election of a new president, the policy framework Obama had in place is reinstated. Most voters will understand and be behind this.
2. Generate Funds. Instead of raising taxes (very hard), or running a larger deficit (still hard), or asking the Federal Reserve to invest (hard-ish), we commit to cutting 1% of military spending, and instead spend it on a Green New Deal. Then, we increase that to 2% the next year if we have buy-in from our military antagonists. If so, we increase our cut exponentially, redirecting 4, 8, 16%, until we have the funds to tackle our ten-year goal of merely surviving Climate Change. If our military competitors are also redirecting funds, nobody feels threatened by this, and the world succeeds.
3. Hasten An Accelerated Carbon Drawdown. Put in place a) communication; b) jobs; c) policy.
Communication: give US savings bonds, randomly, to people who participate, online, in understanding and forming public policy (this educates, plugs in, and means agency for voters).
Jobs: provide jobs and other assistance that would actually work. Green policy itself will also create jobs.
Policy: make as much progress as possible--given our political bottleneck: the US senate (good luck). Assume that an acceleration will occur, but until our political initiative can succeed, highlight alternative paths, rather than just one.
How does this all fit together?
* Without the need for taxes, there's no easy target for opposition
* With jobs on the line (for all states), it's easier to enthuse get-out-the-vote efforts
* With voters plugged in, reactionary and special interest messages lose part of their audience
As for "Communication", I've proposed online voting (based on voters --> informing representatives of their opinions) that's fair to all (because sampling is involved) and doable (as opposed to online secret balloting, which is not). Participants would be randomly rewarded with Savings Bonds, so as to have a relatively representative sample for polling firms to start with. This, for the House of Representatives (here's the link).
......................
As a rule, the easier way is usually the one we'll take; the path of least resistance. For the Green New Deal, recently popularized by Climate Change activists, the easiest path is not necessarily the best. If we fail to stop global warming, we lose. But if we're too ambitious, and we lose politically we also fail.
So, here's a 3-point plan (easily understood), that'd be fairly easy to pass (politically winnable), that also has within it the seed for limiting warming to a maximum 1.5 degrees (necessary):
1. Return To The Obama 'Normal'. This means that by 2021, with the election of a new president, the policy framework Obama had in place is reinstated. Most voters will understand and be behind this.
2. Generate Funds. Instead of raising taxes (very hard), or running a larger deficit (still hard), or asking the Federal Reserve to invest (hard-ish), we commit to cutting 1% of military spending, and instead spend it on a Green New Deal. Then, we increase that to 2% the next year if we have buy-in from our military antagonists. If so, we increase our cut exponentially, redirecting 4, 8, 16%, until we have the funds to tackle our ten-year goal of merely surviving Climate Change. If our military competitors are also redirecting funds, nobody feels threatened by this, and the world succeeds.
3. Hasten An Accelerated Carbon Drawdown. Put in place a) communication; b) jobs; c) policy.
Communication: give US savings bonds, randomly, to people who participate, online, in understanding and forming public policy (this educates, plugs in, and means agency for voters).
Jobs: provide jobs and other assistance that would actually work. Green policy itself will also create jobs.
Policy: make as much progress as possible--given our political bottleneck: the US senate (good luck). Assume that an acceleration will occur, but until our political initiative can succeed, highlight alternative paths, rather than just one.
How does this all fit together?
* Without the need for taxes, there's no easy target for opposition
* With jobs on the line (for all states), it's easier to enthuse get-out-the-vote efforts
* With voters plugged in, reactionary and special interest messages lose part of their audience
As for "Communication", I've proposed online voting (based on voters --> informing representatives of their opinions) that's fair to all (because sampling is involved) and doable (as opposed to online secret balloting, which is not). Participants would be randomly rewarded with Savings Bonds, so as to have a relatively representative sample for polling firms to start with. This, for the House of Representatives (here's the link).
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
HobbyTime Update
What I Play In My Spare Time
....................
I describe my hobby here (link). This post is an update on my brother's and my design, 2016 (illustrations and photo at the link).
For those who play historical boardgames, it isn't difficult to understand the attraction: the immersion in a set of difficult decisions that allows one to feel history play out--the closer the glove of the game fits the time represented, the better.
So, I present: a glove-like concept, a focus on clever card play, and simplification:
* Press Support
This was key to the campaign--especially for Clinton. Did she have The Press in her corner, or was there disenchantment.
We represent this by making the tie-breaker in all cases the player with the most Press Support cubes.
And, Press Support cubes on a given issue (Character, Jobs, Protest, Immigration) give an edge when that issue is debated (there's a debate at the end of each of the four turns). Debates are scored for Partisan and for Bi-Partisan appeal; the latter is mainly Press Support cubes.
A recent tweak to the rules: rewards for winning Bi-Partisan appeal in a debate are constrained by how many Press Support cubes one has on the relevant issue (cubes are gained when playing Bi-Partisan Events related to a given issue): this makes Press Support more important.
This card is Clinton's best hope at
having The Press on her side.
* Upgrade of 'Dud' Cards
The idea here is to reward innovative card play, rather than a player's accumulation of better cards.
A recent tweak: some of the cards that were considered 'lesser' were given dual-use status (they can be played as both Event and Address-An-Issue).
This card can now be played as a
key Event, as well as Addressing
An Issue (with a +1 cube draw).
* (in general), Simplification
Although our game is aimed at players who enjoy complex designs (its sister games, 2012 and 2020, will be easier to master), we are now attempting to simplify whenever we can.
A recent tweak: players now select, or draft, their hand of four cards at the beginning of each of the four turns in exactly the same way each turn. It used to be a different process for Turn #1.
Here's a fairly powerful card that
earns a cube on the Bi-Partisan,
Press Support ("Both") track--for
either player--on the Character
issue.
....................
I describe my hobby here (link). This post is an update on my brother's and my design, 2016 (illustrations and photo at the link).
For those who play historical boardgames, it isn't difficult to understand the attraction: the immersion in a set of difficult decisions that allows one to feel history play out--the closer the glove of the game fits the time represented, the better.
So, I present: a glove-like concept, a focus on clever card play, and simplification:
* Press Support
This was key to the campaign--especially for Clinton. Did she have The Press in her corner, or was there disenchantment.
We represent this by making the tie-breaker in all cases the player with the most Press Support cubes.
And, Press Support cubes on a given issue (Character, Jobs, Protest, Immigration) give an edge when that issue is debated (there's a debate at the end of each of the four turns). Debates are scored for Partisan and for Bi-Partisan appeal; the latter is mainly Press Support cubes.
A recent tweak to the rules: rewards for winning Bi-Partisan appeal in a debate are constrained by how many Press Support cubes one has on the relevant issue (cubes are gained when playing Bi-Partisan Events related to a given issue): this makes Press Support more important.
This card is Clinton's best hope at
having The Press on her side.
* Upgrade of 'Dud' Cards
The idea here is to reward innovative card play, rather than a player's accumulation of better cards.
A recent tweak: some of the cards that were considered 'lesser' were given dual-use status (they can be played as both Event and Address-An-Issue).
This card can now be played as a
key Event, as well as Addressing
An Issue (with a +1 cube draw).
* (in general), Simplification
Although our game is aimed at players who enjoy complex designs (its sister games, 2012 and 2020, will be easier to master), we are now attempting to simplify whenever we can.
A recent tweak: players now select, or draft, their hand of four cards at the beginning of each of the four turns in exactly the same way each turn. It used to be a different process for Turn #1.
Here's a fairly powerful card that
earns a cube on the Bi-Partisan,
Press Support ("Both") track--for
either player--on the Character
issue.
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