Debate Update: Klobuchar *Biden* Her Time

#232: Slow Pace Wins The Race?

We're used to politicians charging full-tilt towards victory.  This is probably because 'politicians' has almost always meant men.  But what if a woman's slow, steady progress makes more sense?

[Turtles have been seeking out new territory,
what with all the rain we've had recently.]

I continue my focus on a dark-horse Democratic candidate, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, who I've argued is the party's best bet (mainly because of how Senate races are configured).  In this edition I confine myself to just two points:

1. Somebody Should Probably Say Something.  Many voters are shopping for a candidate.  But buying what you want, short term, could be what you don't want, long term.

2. Klobuchar Waits.  She needn't fight hard right now; instead, ...make a few wisecracks.

1. Seeing candidates raise their hand when asked whether they'd eliminate all private health insurance, or provide health coverage to undocumented migrants, is sobering.  If you list 2020 Senate races from most likely for Blue, to least, you have something like: Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Kentucky, Montana, Alabama, Kansas, Tennessee, Alaska, Nebraska.   To get to 50 seats, Blue would have to win the first three, plus one to cancel out a likely loss in Alabama, and one or two to cancel out any 'miss' in those top four.  Plus, 52 senate seats are probably needed to avoid conservative Democrats holding up progress on specific issues (climate change, for example).  So, we're talking about winning 2-out-of-3 in Georgia, Kentucky, and Montana.  Voters in those states are, on average, quite conservative.  If Democratic voters really want the promised land of possible legislation (tackling income inequality, voting rights, climate change, healthcare, etc.) they should probably reject candidates who say radical things that'll come back to haunt them as negative ads ("Don't let the radical socialists take away your health care and give it to illegals.")

2.  I have yet to watch the 4 hours of debate, but have heard that Klobuchar had a few funny lines.  This is what she needed as she waits for her moment.  With Biden in the race, her numbers won't be very high, no matter what, since his rationale for running is similar to her's: consolidate the party's center, and keep anything radical under wraps.  Once he begins to fall in the polls, even a minor bounce on her part will seem like a big deal.  So, for June, less is more.

I 'Advise' A Dark-Horse Candidate For President

#231: What It Takes To Win 2020
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Step #1: I pick the likeliest candidate.

Step #2: I rationalize that candidate's major campaign moves, to date.

Step #3: I list three messages to get across in order to 'win' this week's debate.

The Likeliest Candidate
All eyes will be on the second debate, when Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris battle it out [...screech...].  Except no, those are the also-rans, the past-their-bedtime heroes of yesteryear, and the up-and-coming new faces at their first rodeo.

Actually, the first debate, featuring Senators Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, and Amy Klobuchar is where the more serious candidates will compete.  And among these three, Klobuchar provides Democrats with their most likely vehicle, with Warren a close second.  Why?

The choice is obvious, once one looks closely, because only Klobuchar has likely coattails in rural, more Republican parts of the country, while Warren and Booker come across as more urban and liberal.  In the Democratic primary, this broader approach is not an asset, but in a general election, this is the key to success.  Why?  Because of the need for a comfortable margin in the Senate, where, as fate would have it, states like Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, Kansas, and Kentucky are where the action is.   A Warren or Booker blow-out in the presidential election that leaves most of the above states with Republican senators is only asking for gridlock.  Whereas, a few more senate seats is the difference between getting little done and a working majority (probably, this would be 52+ senators, allowing for a defection or two, now and then).

And the surprise is that Klobuchar only seems to be a more conservative candidate.  If one examines the 137 actions she'd take in her first 100 days, they match up nicely with Warren's more detailed, and somewhat more aggressive 'I've got a plan for that' approach.

I Rationalize Klobucar's Campaign, To Date
Her campaign kickoff: outdoors with snow in hair.
Makes her look tough, able to tackle anything.
Her big issue: infrastructure.
Makes her seem aggressive (large price tag), but appealing to everyday, quality-of-life concerns.
Her early struggles (accused of mistreating staff).
Kept expectations low, enabled 'underdog' breakout scenario.  And, charges are disputed, and relatively minor, allowing for redemption.
A grab-bag of 137 actions to take in first 100 days.
Criticized as unfocused, they reassure party activists without providing opponents with specifics to grip and gripe.

I List Three Messages To Win Debate
"Remove the Senate Filibuster for science-backed legislation."  ***
"Because of dealing with my father's alcoholism, I'm uniquely qualified to tangle with Trump.
"If we want to win in places like Wisconsin and Iowa, we have to speak 'farm country'.  I do."

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*** Set up panels of mainstream scientific experts to weigh in on legislation that addresses science.  For example, the climate fight.  Allows science-based legislation with no filibuster possible.  A majority vote is all that's needed to set up said panels.

Discussion: Social Media Habits

#230: My System
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I'm moderately active on social media, mainly Twitter, and am quite satisfied with my experience.  Over the years I've developed a system that allows for give-and-take, but without any of the mania that can accompany 24/7 connection.  How does my approach work?  We'll use an expert's 6-point advice column to get started, and I'll include a percentage to indicate how I feel about each item (just like in my last post on sleep habits):

1. Limit When and Where You Use Social Media   70%
Sure, limitations are necessary, but our expert includes keeping your computer/phone out of your bedroom.  My method is so much less demanding.  I simply use my phone for texting and calling, only, with the sound off; this means I choose when to check it.  Then, I do all my social media on my desktop computer; this means I'm not online except for when I have time and am in the mood.  And of course I have everything in my bedroom--and, no, my sleep is normal.

2. Have 'Detox' Periods  50%
Again, limitations are a good thing, but I find I only occasionally regret not answering a call or text right away.  So, I only ever engage if I'm feeling like it, and therefore don't need to think of taking time off from it.

3. Pay Attention to What You Do and How You Feel   90%
Right, experimenting with different times of day, states of mind, and kinds of friends online is vital.  But to only interact with people you know offline (one of our expert's prescriptions) seems wrong.  Having friends I've never met, or usually don't see, is a wonderful thing.

4. Approach Social Media Mindfully; Ask 'Why?'  80%
True, I want to be mindful, and asking myself why I feel like reaching out is good.  But, oftentimes, I'm moved by what I write or read, and end up in a completely different frame-of-mind, so there's also the question of "Why not?"

5. Prune  95%
Good one.  There's always something to sign up for, or someone to connect with.  It's probably a good idea to give oneself too little to handle, rather than too much.  The author suggests you might want to sign up for motivational or 'funny' sites.  Maybe for most people; I just don't have the time, plus my sense of humor is too demanding.

6. Stop Social Media from Replacing Real Life  30%
Ummm, ok, for most people; but I find I usually prefer to interact with people I don't see day-to-day.

Discussion: Sleep Habits

#229: My System
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About two years ago I started getting up at the same time every morning.  This was work-related to begin with, since sleeping in on the weekend, I had realized, turned Mondays into decidedly 'down' days, due to not being tired enough to sleep well on Sunday nights.  I've experimented with different times for getting up, and have been willing to break my own rules if I have to, on my way to a 'system'.  Here's a run-down, using an article on science-based sleep advice.  I react to each of the five rules and assign a percentage (how important the rule is to me):

1. Only go to bed when you're really sleepy.   80%
The problem with this rule is that you don't know for sure how things will go once you lay down.  And if you wait for that "really sleepy" feeling, you may well've burned through half your night.  So, I'd say be flexible; and if you can, experiment.

2. Get up if you can't sleep.   35%
This is what the science says, but if you ask me, I'd say there are just as many times when I can fall back to sleep after the prescribed 15 minutes, than not.  So, I generally do not get up.  My dreaming is most easily remembered when just barely asleep, then awake, then drifting off again, so there's a benefit to only getting up when there's something bothering me that I can't help thinking about.  And by the way, how does one know 15 minutes has passed if part of the scientific advice is to not check the time?

3. Stay up for a predetermined length of time.  95%
While I don't usually get up to avoid sleeplessness, when I do, I usually set a time limit; otherwise, it's too easy not to even go back to bed.

4. Wake up at the same time every morning.  95%
I have 'slept in' in the past year, but only once or twice.  And, more importantly, once I decide I'm getting up, I don't let myself focus on how tired I feel.  Instead, I tell myself I want what I've decided I want, and so, spring out of bed.

5. Don't nap.  90%
I want to say 100%, but I've nodded off reading (I assume that counts as a nap).

There's more, like resolving problems during the day so I don't have to anticipate them at night.  And there's how much to sleep.  Evidently, 7-8 hours is the scientific consensus.

A Winning Line For Each Debate Candidate

#228: I Hand Out Free Advice
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The first Democratic debate of the 2020 election season will see two nights (6/26, 6/27) of ten candidates each (NBC/MSNBC).

Here are the top 13 candidates, along with a message for each that to my mind best suits their future in politics (for some, this involves dropping out).  I'll begin with the least likely to do well--again, as I see it, and end with the most likely.  [Not Mentioned are Tulsi Gabbard, Bill DeBlasio, John Delaney, Eric Swalwell, Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Ryan, and Michael Bennet, who should realize the end is near and drop out sooner-rather-than-later to avoid further embarrassment].

#13: Joe Biden.  "I'm a team player, and on our team George Washington laid down the rules: once you've served your country, it's time to retire.  In the weeks to come I'll be organizing Team Blue (link), where all our major candidates will be offered a role in the next administration, including yours truly (Defense Secretary).  Our Republican opponent might be able to beat one of us, but together, we offer what America wants: trusted, experienced leadership."  (walks off stage)

#12: Bernie Sanders.  "I humbly submit that I've learned three things in this, my second run for president:  1. I've become a team player and will be permanently joining the Democratic Party.  2. Elizabeth Warren is a much more likely vessel for our hopes and dreams than I am; so, I'll be ending my campaign, returning with renewed vigor to the Senate, and will support Senator Warren's campaign if and when I'm needed.  and 3.  The body ages, whether we like it or not; I don't like it, but that's life.  I bid you all farewell; it has been a true pleasure." (walks off stage)

#11: John Hickenlooper.  "I'm a team player. ...In fact, I've already been contacted by Vice President Biden about joining Team Blue.  We'll be discussing my future role, perhaps as a combined Small Business Administration / Commerce secretary, with an emphasis on incubators, funding streams, and promising start-ups.  In fact, I'm so sure I want to do this that I'm ending my run for the presidency." (walks off stage)

#10: Jay Inslee. "Even though I, too, have been offered a cabinet position on Team Blue (EPA administrator), and even though I understand the potential danger in publicly discussing our team's strategy ahead of 'the game', I feel I still have a role to play raising Climate Change as an issue, and will continue to make every effort to win our party's nomination."

#9: Marianne Williamson.  "It's jarring to realize just how long we've lived with war--ever since 2001; 18 years!  I'm sure there's a way to return to peace, and I'll help find it."

#8: Andrew Yang.  "My first instinct was to propose a Universal Basic Income that would apply to everyone; unfortunately, the cost would be prohibitive.  I realize now that a targeted UBI, focused on providing equal opportunity to all is the more likely approach.  If everyone has hope--and access to money, our economy can meet its potential. "

#7: Cory Booker:  "I was joking backstage with a custodian.  I told him we were all forming Team Blue, and we needed a card-carrying union guy for Secretary of Labor.  Ok, so he wasn't interested, and I'm not sure I'm cut out to be a Housing and Urban Development secretary (which I've been offered), but I just love the Team Blue idea.  Now that Joe and Bernie have graciously stepped aside, we're all one team, and I for one pledge not to 'go negative' on any fellow candidates.  Ladies and gentlemen, we can do this."

#6: Julian Castro: "I'd like to second 'brother Booker'.  We'll be respectful, we'll be willing to listen, we'll be open to new ideas and new faces.  We'll show the American people what my buddy Joe Biden mentioned: "trusted, experienced leadership".  So, whether it's win the 'whole enchilada', or just help shape our party's direction (I've been asked to head Homeland Security), we'll bring our supporters with us all the way to the voting booth and beyond."

#5: Beto: "I'm so honored to be on this stage tonight, along with my Team Blue teammates.  Surely the seismic change we're seeing unfold here, the dedication to America's interests, rather than our own need to win, will stand out in the minds of future historians as a natural echo of George Washington's standing down after two terms.  And whether I become president, or whether I serve as Energy or Education secretary on Team Blue (positions I've been offered), I will be a proud man, indeed."

#4: Elizabeth Warren: "'I had a plan' for this introductory speech [laughter], until my good friend Bernie announced his surprise exit from the race.  So now, I'd like to thank not only my supporters, who've made my dreams come true, and Vice President Biden, for offering me the Treasury secretary position (in conjunction with my senatorial duties), but my dear colleague Bernie, for his selfless dedication to what this country could be if we simply care enough to vote that dream into reality."

#3: Kamala Harris: "If 'brother Julian' doesn't mind, I'd like to borrow his brotherhood/sisterhood term to emphasize that we're all one family here on this stage.  And whether I serve as the next president (our first female, and first Asian-American president, mind you), or whether I accept the Justice Department position 'brother Biden' has offered--or is it Uncle Joe? [laughter], I'll keep things 'in the family'."

#2: Amy Klobuchar: "Someone on this stage will be president in 2021.  To get there our nominee will have to get past the current occupant.  I look forward to that task, because I've been there before.  As many of you know, my father was an alcoholic who I was forced to confront on a daily basis.  I'm actually good at that sort of thing.  But whether I'm the next Democratic president, or join Team Blue as Drug Czar or Secretary of Agriculture, I know full well how to fight like the future depends on me doing so."

#1: Mayor Pete: "There isn't any better way to put this, except to say that being part of a welcoming family here on this stage is what each viewer at home can expect to experience with Team Blue.  We're dedicated to each other--as brothers and sisters--and will include each of you watching tonight in our prayers, as we work together as a family.  And whether I'm your new president, or whether I accept Vice President Biden's offer to be UN Ambassador, I'll be praying for our nation."

Note: since our 13 candidates won't be on the same stage together, we'll assume that this all happens at the second debate in late July.

I Review: Three Ways Dems Could Lose in 2020

#227: Spoiler: All Three Are Wrongheaded
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Let's take a look at three common doom-and-gloom scenarios for Blue in 2020, and see which candidates are targeted by each:

1. The Firebrand.
In a piece for The Atlantic, Ron Brownstein identifies several issues, including Medicare For All, and Free College, that recent polling has shown to be relatively unpopular with parts of the coalition Democrats attracted in 2018.

2. The Swing-Vote Seeker.
In The New Republic, John Long suggests that 'swing voters' are the wrong focus.  Instead, Democrats should be inspiring and expanding their base--the 4 million voters who chose Obama in 2012, but who stayed home in 2016.

3. The Hopeless Optimist.
In Salon, Uwe Bolt points to the near-certainty of legislative failure, even if Blue takes the Senate, as Republicans will simply refuse to cooperate.  This pessimism could conceivably deflate the campaigns of populist candidates with ambitious plans.

Do we even need to pair up candidates with the above?  We do?  Then here they are:

The Firebrand is surely a poke at Bernie Sanders.

The Swing-Vote Seeker questions the candidacy of Joe Biden, and to a lesser extent Mayor Pete.

The Hopeless Optimist picks on Elizabeth Warren.

The problems we encounter in these articles:

1. The Firebrand critique picks out the obvious, contentious policies that have lost traction as the campaign season has unfolded; aggressive Medicare-For-All and Free College are yesterday's news.  The big bold plans with buzz now-a-days are well-reasoned, and either aren't too overly ambitious, or have 'pay-for's in place.  So, it's a public option as a first step toward a better Health Care.  And free 2-year community college--like the public option, much more focused on what could make it through congress.

2. The Swing-Vote Seeker criticism ignores where most votes are needed.  As I've argued before, whether you like it or not, a Blue presidential victory depends on speaking to midwestern voters in states like Iowa/Wisconsin; and in the Senate, attracting middle-of-the-road voters in places like Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina.  These are all purple states, at best.  And while the Presidency will be hard for Red to retain, given how inelastic the incumbent's poll numbers have been, the battle for the Senate will involve many Red states, especially if Democrats hope to have more than a 50-seat minimum.

3. The Hopeless scenario is simply alarmist.  Given enough seats in the Senate, Democrats will be able to do without their most conservative members when setting up the Science-Based Expertise idea that would allow a case-by-case rollback of the filibuster, thus depriving obstructionists of their weapon of choice.  But, this assumes a presidential candidate with coattails in Red and Purple states.

This is why the Democrat best positioned to win in 2020 is a swing-state vote seeker with well-reasoned, moderately ambitious ideas, with 'pay-for's in place, who is comfortable talking about Mid-West (and rural, more generally) concerns.

Offbeat Photos

#226: The Wayback Machine

Ten photos:

A beast in the wood leaves its mark.

Stonehenge as seen 108 years ago (note supports @ left).

Grandfather's friend @ Appleton & Eynsham fork in road.

Blue mood.

Alternative view to screen image on phone

The New Yorker wins it.

I wait every year for this in late June.

In 2014 we bought cookies that served as Scrabble pieces.

Color.

Edge.