#387: What Might Make Taiwan Want To Reunite?
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I happened upon and read Dan Wang's annual letter for 2021, written from Shanghai (as well as his 2020 missive, from Beijing). If you're interested in what's happening in China these days, you should absolutely find an hour to commit to it.
The key ideas that have stuck with me:
* The Chinese bureaucratic state has become much more efficient and user-friendly.
* The recent crackdown on things like kids video-game-playing and outside tutoring was part of a push to focus on manufacturing and furthering the economy, rather than some random fist shaking.
* Wang points out the lack of 'culture', when compared to Western societies (a contrast to worldwide phenomena like manga, K-pop, and other cultural exports that have emerged from China's neighbors).
* The future's growth industries are hard to predict. In a Western country, the hottest innovation is free to quickly emerge on its own. Can a top-down command economy replicate this same flexibility--especially if, let's say, there are state-owned industries in the way? If not, China will always be playing catch-up--though this is something it's done remarkably well over the past few decades.
* The discussion of regional ambiance (his 2021 letter) and China's regional cuisine (2020) were quite welcome. A section on Mozart's operas, vis-a-vis Italian opera (2021) was a yawner for this reader--though if opera I must, let it be Mozart.
* The introductory second page to his blog lists all the books he's read since college. Impressive.
Anyway, let's get right to this post's question:
Question: What Might Make Taiwan Want To Reunite With China?
Answer: Nobody knows, but we can guess. So, here's a 'what if'.
At first glance, there's little that Taiwan could possibly gain from reuniting with the Chinese mainland. And, after what happened to Hong Kong in the past few years, there aren't likely to be many Taiwanese who're even interested in looking into a possible deal.
As for the government in Beijing, there's the obvious, ultimate feather-in-the-cap that is reunification.
The first step is for us to see this imbalance, and imagine something that could possibly entice a voluntary union, hard as that may seem.
The key is that the Communist party would have to take a step into the future, reshaping and refashioning itself into something with the same structural power, but with a democratic foundation. It would have to create a Chinese version of a modern democratic state.
Luckily, Taiwan itself seems to have come up with just such a system. So, what better way to unite than for the mainland to adopt the island's innovation, remaking the Communist party apparatus into something much less threatening, even inviting. Would this be possible for a proud, assertive government? Well, many a groom has found such a remake conceivable, even desirable, in order to secure his beloved's hand. And what if that groom discovered that he'd be giving up nothing, yet be on his way to being a hero, to his people, and the world? What if Chinese democracy then went on to sweep the world? Rather than a pariah in democratic high society, China would be, indeed, the world's leader, eagerly greeted in every country's capital.
In exchange for adopting her political innovation, Taiwan, during an interim transition, would agree to set a future date, and hold annual talks, leading up to reunion, which might tentatively be, say, 2038. Obviously, the wedding could be called off at any time, by either party.
First, what exactly is Taiwan's recent political innovation, and how might it be incorporated--seamlessly, let's hope. First, here's a link to my post #252, which describes it.
Essentially, it's a way of using an online app to steer interest groups that are in conflict towards consensus:
Process:
1. Crowdsource objective facts from stakeholder factions about a specific issue
2. Communicate via dedicated social media, with statements aimed at resolving the issue drafted within each faction; these internal discussions then alternate with suggestions to resolve the issue at hand, that are offered to all parties
3. A rough consensus is reached between factions, followed by hammering out detailed recommendations
Tweaks (courtesy of the app being used):
* no 'reply' button (so no person-to-person vitriol)
* messages within factions regarding their own drafts are not shared with other factions
* instead, only 'consensus' messages that find minimum support across different groups are trumpeted and copied to future messages; the message(s) with the most support appear at the top of a user's screen
* thus, rather than fostering negativity, the process is gamified to tilt toward consensus
There's no point in defining the process in too great a detail, since the hope is that Beijing would make it its own (even I've fiddled with it a bit to make it make sense in my own mind).
A consensus-building tool, the app would be used to create a democratic foundation, starting with local community issues, and building higher and broader, as the system finds its footing. And of course the Chinese Communist Party would have to tenderly nurture the ensuing process, guiding and reworking and re-envisioning, and always scaling larger as participants get used to the process.
Could it be done? It's conceivable.
Would it end up being mere window dressing? If so, the reunification date could be pushed back. Perhaps a long-term, 2100s date would be likelier.
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