#384: Vox's 2021 and 2022 Predictions, Reviewed
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First, let's look at how the Vox crew did last year (about 14 right predictions out of 22) (here's the link with an explanation for each pick). Then we'll look at their choices for the coming year (here's the link for commentary). For '22, we'll either agree or disagree on each (my comments are in green). The percentage in parentheses is the prediction's confidence level:
Vox Staff's 2021 Predictions (how they did in bold)
Trump will uneventfully leave office on January 20 (70 percent) — TECHNICALLY RIGHT
Biden will have a treasury secretary, secretary of state, defense secretary, and attorney general confirmed by the end of the year (70 percent) — RIGHT
At least one US state will have an abortion ban currently blocked by the courts go into effect (40 percent) — WRONG [technically, but they got the gist RIGHT]
No one in Trump’s immediate family will be indicted (65 percent) — RIGHT
Trump approval rating by year’s end will be in the 40 to 45 percent range (70 percent) — RIGHT
The US unemployment rate will stay above 5 percent through November (70 percent) — WRONG
US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020 (80 percent) — WRONG
The median home price in the Bay Area will fall 5 percent or more (70 percent) — WRONG
100 million Americans will be vaccinated, at least partially, against the coronavirus by the end of April (70 percent) — RIGHT
Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home will be back to normal by the end of the year (70 percent) — MOSTLY RIGHT
A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge (55 percent) — WRONG
The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent) — RIGHT
The Hadi government and Houthi rebels in Yemen will reach a peace agreement (60 percent) — WRONG
LDP will continue to govern Japan (90 percent) and CDU will continue to govern Germany (80 percent) — RIGHT and WRONG
India’s economy will grow in the first three quarters of 2021 after shrinking briefly in 2020 (70 percent) — RIGHT
At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) — RIGHT
No more countries will leave the EU (80 percent) — RIGHT
An AI breakthrough will lead to a game-changing advance in biology (75 percent) — RIGHT
Global carbon emissions will increase (90 percent) — RIGHT
Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2020 (80 percent) — WRONG
Plant-based meat market share will increase by at least 20 percent (80 percent) — WRONG
Their discussion of these predictions reveals just how studious serious predictors are. They were unlucky at least once (Average World Temps just missed 2020's level), and were thrown for another three losses by Democratic senate candidates winning runoff races in Georgia, changing the playing field. So, their record is likely to improve to, say, 18/22 this year.
Let's see if we can guess where things might go wrong for the Vox crew in '22. We'll agree with their pick if we don't have feelings one way or another:
Vox Staff's 2022 Predictions (a confidence level of 55% or more means Yes)
*** Democrats will lose their majorities in the US House and Senate (95 percent)
95% 'yes' is a (perhaps slightly high) standard prediction. I am feeling a current running the other way and will give it a 45% NO for either the House or Senate. My reasoning is that
1. Trump is causing trouble for Red by endorsing candidates who could easily say dumb things. Example: Mary Miller in IL-15 (downstate) has been endorsed over Rodney Davis (a Trumper, but voted to certify 2020's election results, and for a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6 insurrection) (Note: Miller's mailbox fliers were seen in the pre-Christmas rush, long before her endorsement--she's hitting the ground running).
2. The truth about January 6th has yet to be fully understood and 'experienced' as a definitive, dominant story in the media.
3. The anti-science tilt of some in the Red base (especially regarding Covid) may be a bigger drag on Red than we might think.
4. Our former president does not look healthy. Poor health could doom his command of Red; would be ironic if some of his candidates won, only to be yesterday's news.
5. The two things weighing down President Biden (and the Democrats') polling: inflation and Covid, could conceivably evaporate, at least partially, by the summer.
*** Inflation in the US will average under 3 percent (80 percent)
I'll lower that to 65%.
*** Unemployment in the US will fall below 4 percent by November (80 percent)
*** The Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade (65 percent)
I'll lower that 65 to 55 YES.
*** Stephen Breyer will retire from the Supreme Court (55 percent)
*** Emmanuel Macron will be reelected as president of France (65 percent)
*** Jair Bolsonaro will be reelected as president of Brazil (55 percent)
I will again go with a 45% NO.
*** Bongbong Marcos will be elected as president of the Philippines (55 percent)
*** Rebels will NOT capture the Ethiopian capital of Addis Ababa (55 percent)
*** China will not reopen its borders in the first half of 2022 (80 percent)
*** Chinese GDP will continue to grow for the first three quarters of the year (95 percent)
*** 20 percent of US children between 6 months and 5 years old will have received at least one Covid vaccine by year’s end (65 percent)
*** The WHO will designate another variant of concern by year’s end (75 percent)
*** 12 billion shots will be given out against Covid-19 globally by November 2022 ... (80 percent)
*** ... but at least one country will have less than 10 percent of people vaccinated with two shots by November 2022 — (70 percent)
*** A psychedelic drug will be decriminalized or legalized in at least one new US state (75 percent)
*** AI will discover a new drug — or an old drug fit for new purposes — that’s promising enough for clinical trials (85 percent)
*** US government will not renew the ban on funding gain-of-function research (60 percent)
*** The Biden administration will set the social cost of carbon at $100 per ton or more (70 percent)
*** 2022 will be warmer than 2021 (80 percent)
*** Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast will win Best Picture (55 percent)
*** Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics (60 percent)
So, I've tweaked two percentages, and changed two predictions from YES to NO. Most of the other matters are not subjects I know all that much about, or are almost impossible to predict.
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