Getting Nothing In Return -- It's Hard

 #382: That 50/50 Senate

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When West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin periodically reminds his party that he's the 50th vote needed among fifty Democratic senators, and that he intends to vote for a slimmed down Build Back Better bill or nothing at all, there's a natural feeling among his liberal colleagues, and among liberals in general, that this isn't right: why should one senator get to decide the course of history?  It's a natural reaction, but one that seeks to ignore reality.

There is, it seems, only one way forward; and that is to take a few bites, leaving the rest for later.

Specifically:

1. Wait for inflation to be heading down, rather than up.  Ideally, heading dramatically downwards, or at least consistently down.  The CPI snapshot for December will be released on the 12th.

2. In the meantime, unveil a scaled back BBB that Manchin can live with.  If he won't tip his hand, guess what it is he'll agree to.  For example:

 * A single new program that does not involve free money (which would likely stoke inflation).

 * First steps to addressing Climate Change.

 * Expansion of healthcare subsidies to all qualifyied Americans (those living in states which haven't signed up for ObamaCare).

 * Some prescription drug pricing reform (which would help pay for the above).

 * Enough $$ for the IRS to collect from those who don't pay their fair share (also a pay-for).

3. Have the Congressional Budget Office estimate what it'll cost.  Make sure the estimate comes in at the desired amount, with expenditures equalling, or being less than receipts.  This means not back-loading most of the taxes into years 7-through-10, and not front-loading most of the benefits into years 1-through-4.

4. Announce a "second step" for Build Back Better that Democratic candidates (and any brave Republicans, if they want) can campaign for.  Make it a true second step, though, not a mighty long-jump.  For example:

* A Child Tax Credit Extension.  Expensive, and possibly inflationary, but popular, and immediately cuts child poverty by half (compared to 2020 levels).

* MediCare expansion to include hearing, vision and dental benefits.  Very popular among the age group that's most likely to vote: senior citizens and those approaching senior citizen status.

* Pay-fors would include further addressing inequality.

5. If there's any hope that Democrats can avoid the historical trend of incumbent Presidents' parties losing mid-term elections (like the one coming up this November), it likely involves a popular message to campaign on.  This, after a successful Build Back Better bill, which would likely lead to robust economic growth.

6. Sometimes, if you're lucky, the only way forward is close to being the most likely way forward.